Trump spearheads his party's stance on vaccine skepticism.
Trump declared to an interviewer in September's late stages that the Republicans aren't keen on acknowledging it. Instead, Trump has made at least 17 promises this year to slash funding for schools that enforce vaccine mandates. Previous campaign spokespersons stated that this pledge would only apply to schools with COVID-19 mandates. However, reviewed speeches did not include such a distinction, leading speculation that Trump may also target vaccination rules for diseases like polio and measles, which can be potentially lethal to children.
The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comments regarding this article.
Trump's tenure has resulted in a significant shift in his party's views on vaccines, as evidenced by false claims by primary candidates and puzzling conspiracy theories from prominent conservative voices this campaign season. A September 2023 poll conducted by Politico and Morning Consult revealed that a majority of voters were more concerned about the risks than the benefits of getting vaccinated.
A surge in anti-vaccine policies in statehouses has followed this rhetoric. According to Boston University political scientist Matt Motta, who tracks public health policy, at least 42 anti-vaccine bills were enacted in 2023, marking a near-ninefold increase since 2019.
The 2024 Texas GOP platform proposes a ban on mRNA technology, the innovation behind some COVID-19 vaccines, which scientists believe can have significant applications in cancer care.
Last month, Trump won over anti-vaccine voters by securing the endorsement of Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a prominent vaccine skeptic, and appointing him to his transition team. In a recent tour with former Fox News broadcaster Tucker Carlson, Kennedy expressed his intention to be heavily involved in selecting personnel for FDA, NIH, and CDC.
Trump has various ways to pursue anti-vaccine goals as president, such as by creating further doubt and hindering the federal government's ability to recommend vaccines. He has promised to appoint Kennedy, along with other "top experts," to a panel exploring chronic diseases, some of which Kennedy's nonprofit has linked to inoculations.
It remains unclear how Trump's most common proposal - defunding schools that require vaccinations - would be executed, according to Judith Winston, former general counsel of the Department of Education during the Obama administration.
Currently, the Department of Education lacks the power to revoke public school funding all at once, making a second Trump administration reliant on removing funding program by program. Moreover, the legal basis for such a move isn't clear, and would likely require congressional action.
All 50 states have a vaccine requirement for school attendance.
Trump's outreach to anti-vaccine constituencies comes as vaccine hesitancy increases and preventable diseases rise. This summer, Oregon experienced its worst measles outbreak since 1991.
The situation may worsen, according to Tom Frieden, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention: In the Nineties, during a time when vaccine skepticism also proliferated, the U.S. saw thousands of measles cases. According to the CDC, we have not yet returned to those bad old days - but the number of measles cases recorded this year is already quadruple that of last year.
"It was highly disruptive," he said. "Many children who had measles ended up with hearing problems or cognitive problems that were lifelong. A small number died in this country."
Worldwide, the disease killed over 100,000 in 2022, mostly among children under age 5, according to the World Health Organization.
Polling shows that a substantial minority of Americans, primarily within the Republican Party, hold vaccine-skeptical positions, said Harvard professor and health politics expert Robert Blendon.
And suspicion of vaccines has evolved into suspicion of vaccines generally among this group, he said. "It follows from this rebellion against the COVID-19 vaccine mandates."
Vaccine opposition has divided the GOP. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis made opposition to vaccines a central theme of his failed presidential nomination campaign. In states such as Wyoming and Missouri, primary campaigns centering on anti-vaccine themes took place this year.
Bob Onder, a physician and Republican candidate for Congress in Missouri, was accused in Facebook ads placed by his main opponent of profiting from pharmaceutical companies to test vaccines. "He profited from our pain," one ad said. "You suffered the consequences."
Onder "has never done COVID-19 vaccine research" and opposes COVID-19 vaccine mandates, his campaign manager, Charley Lovett, told KFF Health News. (Lovett said Onder "conducted" one study sponsored by AstraZeneca on preventing COVID-19 in high-risk patients using monoclonal antibodies, not vaccines.)
Onder won the Republican primary, but his vaccine-disparaging opponent still received over 37% of the vote.
Anti-vaccine candidates often become anti-vaccine policymakers. The impact can be seen in Texas, where vaccine politics were once a bipartisan issue. According to researchers, from 2009 to 2019, legislators in Texas passed 19 pro-vaccine bills, such as a law allowing pharmacists to administer immunizations.
Toward the end of the decade, the consensus started to change. Small divisions, frequently fostered on Facebook, gained influence. One such division, Texans for Vaccine Choice, stirred up hearings before the state legislature in 2021 and focused on anti-vaccination legislators, leading some to lose in their GOP primaries.
Misinformation has driven the anti-vaccine trend in Texas, alongside conventional conservative beliefs regarding personal freedom, stated Summer Wise, a former executive committee member of the state’s Republican Party — primarily misleading beliefs about the use of fetal cells in vaccine development; fabricated research linking vaccines to autism; and conspiracy theories about Bill Gates, the wealthy benefactor who supports vaccination.
"Politicians exploit vaccines as a means to instill fear amongst the populace, which they then manipulate and direct to control a voting bloc," Wise commented.
Besides advocating for a ban on mRNA technology, the Texas GOP's 2024 platform includes various policies that could hamper vaccination, such as enabling medical trainees and physicians to refuse vaccine administration due to religious reasons. It also suggests enshrining a patient's right to avoid mandatory vaccinations in the state's Bill of Rights.
At a national level, anti-immunization policies may take a more aggressive stance under a second Trump administration.
Roger Severino, previously head of the HHS Office of Civil Rights and now affiliated with Heritage Foundation, contributed to Project 2025, an initiative by Heritage Foundation to design a Republican Administration's health plan.
The document proposes curtailing the CDC's ability to issue mandatory vaccine or quarantine advice, focusing on educational institutions or elsewhere.
A Heritage Foundation spokesperson mentioned that Severino believes the agency's credibility has eroded, and it bears the responsibility of justifying "every vaccine on the schedule being administered simultaneously."
Gostin, a public health law professor at Georgetown University, argued that the proposal misconstrues the CDC's landmark and authorities. The agency rarely, if ever, provides binding recommendations, he asserted.
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“When the next pandemic strikes, we will seek guidance from CDC based on the most recent research,” he said. “We do not wish for a debilitated agency during a public health emergency.”
Certain Republican scholars have painted alarming images surrounding vaccines. An example is "Dawn's Early Light," an upcoming book by Heritage president Kevin Roberts, which received an appreciative foreword by Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance.
In one section of the book, Roberts envisions the federal government utilizing alleged future capabilities to "dismiss motorists" for flouting the latest vaccine mandate.
“Another potent tool for social control rolls into place,” he wrote.
KFF Health News is a newsroom dedicated to comprehensive health journalism and is one of the core endeavors at KFF — an independent resource for health policy research, polling, and journalism.
The rise in anti-vaccine policies could negatively impact public health, as evidenced by the increase in vaccine-hesitant individuals and the subsequent surge in preventable diseases. For instance, Oregon experienced its worst measles outbreak since 1991 this summer.
The Trump administration's stance on vaccines has sparked concern among health experts, as defunding schools that require vaccinations could potentially lead to a surge in vaccine-preventable diseases. This could result in lifelong health issues and even deaths, as seen during previous periods of vaccine skepticism.
