Trump erroneously asserts that each survey indicates his victory in the debate.
He accomplished this in 2016 following his debates against Hillary Clinton. He did it again in 2020 after debating Joe Biden. And he repeated the action on Wednesday, after going head-to-head against Vice President Kamala Harris the night prior.
He posted on social media on Wednesday afternoon: "Every survey indicates we're triumphing, in one case, 92-8, so why engage in a rematch?"
"We clinched the debate, according to every survey — every single survey, I believe," Trump shared with reporters later in the afternoon.
Fact Check: Trump's statement is unfounded. As of Thursday morning, all major scientific surveys concerning the debate — those employing random sampling methods to depict a reasonable representation of American opinion — demonstrated that Harris won. The surveys where most participants declared Trump the winner were unscientific surveys — open-ended questions posted online — allowing an unlimited number of individuals to vote, regardless of age or country of residence. This resulted in meaningless results as a gauge of American public opinion.
Let me introduce you to the results of three scientific surveys concerning the debate from acknowledged nonpartisan pollsters. The first two were released prior to Trump making his Wednesday claims about every survey showing a victory for him.
CNN survey by SSRS (605 registered voters who claimed to have watched): 63% believed Harris performed better, while 37% endorsed Trump's performance.
YouGov survey (2,166 registered voters who claimed to have watched): 54% identified Harris as the debate winner, 31% selected Trump, and 14% were unsure.
Le/ger survey for the New York Post (1,002 US adults who claimed to have watched): 50% assigned victory to Harris, while 29% recognized Trump as the winner. 21% remained uncertain or undecided.
Scientific debate surveys from a Democratic pollster and a Republican pollster also revealed Harris ahead.
Although scientific surveys are far from flawless, it's patently clear that Trump's assertion that he emerged victorious "according to every survey" is baseless.
Trump referred to unverified surveys
Trump insinuated on social media during the debate and in a Fox News interview the following day that, as he had in the two previous presidential elections, he was relying on unverified surveys to bolster his claims that surveys indicated he was the clear debate winner.
Trump stated on Fox that "every single survey last night had me leading by a 90-10 margin" and "we have one here: 92-7." Here's an instance of a survey demonstrating such an enormous lead: an unscientific web survey from Newsmax, a right-wing television station that invited viewers to visit its website and declare whom they felt was the winner.
Such surveys are leveraged by media outlets and social media accounts to generate audience engagement. This is acceptable. However, the survey results' worthlessness as an accurate measure of public opinion is apparent.
Newsmax fans were more familiar with this survey than other people. Individuals could vote multiple times if they owned multiple web-connected devices. People could also vote regardless of their age or residency in a different country.
In the Fox interview, Trump also referenced an 80-20 lead he claimed to possess at one point in a C-SPAN survey. C-SPAN is a neutral entity that broadcasts federal government proceedings. But its survey, too, was unverifiable; C-SPAN just posted an open-ended question on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.
Supporters of either candidate, regardless of geographical location, could circulate the C-SPAN link to as many like-minded individuals as they wanted.
In the context of the text, the following sentences can be formed:
- Trump's debate victory claims, as seen on social media and in interviews, were often based on unverified surveys.
- Despite Trump's repeated assertions that he emerged victorious in every survey, numerous scientific polls showed Vice President Kamala Harris outperforming him in the debate.
