Trump backers' faith in election procedure is notably low in six pivotal states, according to CNN's polling data.
Majority or more than two-thirds of probable voters in six states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, express some assurance that votes within their state will be cast and tallied accurately. Confidence levels vary, with 68% in Arizona and a leading 79% in Wisconsin feeling fairly or extremely confident. Only Wisconsin has a majority, 52%, who are extremely confident about their state's voting process, while Michigan and the rest of the states have less than half.
In the debate between Trump and Vice President Harris, Trump continued his campaign to weaken trust in the electoral system, refusing to accept his 2020 election loss and threatening to prosecute election officials if he regains the presidency while spreading unfounded critiques of mail-in voting in Pennsylvania.
There's a significant political divide among voters in each state regarding the electoral system, mirroring Trump's attempts to erode its credibility. The data shows that 71% of Harris supporters are very confident in their state's voting process, compared to only an average of 15% among Trump supporters in these states. Trump supporters generally lack assurance in the system, and considerable shares still doubt its integrity.
In Georgia, where recent changes to the election rules have raised concerns, confidence gaps between Harris and Trump supporters in the election process shrink significantly. Harris supporters in Georgia are less confident than those in other states, with 82% expressing some degree of confidence, compared to a 92% or higher rate in the other five states. This gulf is smaller than in other states, with only about a 20-point difference compared to 40-50 points in the other five states.
The findings are consistent with the situation two years ago, when between 40-48% of likely midterm voters in several of these states expressed strong confidence in election accuracy. Confidence among Harris supporters in the states ranges between 91-100%, while Trump supporters have a lower level of confidence, ranging from 13% to 65%.
The poll findings corroborate other recent surveys, including a national ABC News/Ipsos poll released before Labor Day, in which 92% of Harris supporters expressed their readiness to accept election results, compared to only 76% among Trump supporters. A CNN poll conducted in July found that 71% of Americans doubt Trump would concede if he lost the election, an increase from 58% ahead of the 2020 presidential election. In the same poll, many voters thought that the election loser had a duty to accept the results and concede, with 85% of registered voters and 77% of Trump supporters agreeing.
The Harris supporters' confidence in the election process reflects the widespread view that this year's campaign is a matter of safeguarding democracy. In all six states, Harris supporters choose "protecting democracy" as their top election concern, with an average of 43% in each state selecting it as their main voting issue. Conversely, only 9% of Trump supporters, on average, consider this issue to be their main priority.
Interviews for the CNN polls were conducted between August 23-29, 2024, with 682 registered voters in Arizona, 617 in Georgia, 708 in Michigan, 626 in Nevada, 789 in Pennsylvania, and 976 in Wisconsin. The results for likely voters, which represent the weighted total of all registered voters expected to vote in this year's election, have a sampling error of plus or minus 4.7 points in Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania; plus or minus 4.9 points in Michigan and Nevada; and plus or minus 4.4 points in Wisconsin. More detailed information is available here.
Despite Trump's efforts to discredit the electoral system, a majority of voters in these states still have faith in their state's voting process, with Harris supporters showing particularly high levels of confidence. Politics plays a significant role in shaping voter confidence, as demonstrated by the wide gap in trust between Trump and Harris supporters.
