Transfer acutely at risk: Traffic lights at record low
No one comes up with the idea of giving the traffic light a "very good" rating, under the line, the federal government receives a poor 4. All three government parties lie on a new low in the trend barometer.
Testimonial also for the traffic light: For the Germans, the work of the federal government on average is "sufficient," in numbers: 4.2. A 1 ("very good") would not be given to the traffic light according to a survey by the opinion research institute Forsa for the RTL/ntv-Trendbarometer by anyone. A 2 ("good") was given by 4% of the respondents.
A quarter gives the coalition a 3 ("satisfactory"), 32% grant a 4 ("sufficient"). For 20%, the work of the traffic light is "inadequate". A 6 ("insufficient") was given by 18%. From these evaluations, the overall grade of 4.2 as the average value results.
People under 30 years old judge the work of the government with an average grade of 3.6, which is a little milder than the other age groups. While the government receives a similar poor average grade (4.3) from all earners like the Germans overall, the judgment of the self-employed about the federal government is even more negative with a middle value of 4.7.
With a middle value of 3.4 or 3.5, the supporters of the SPD and the Greens give the federal government a slightly less negative testimonial than the average of the Germans. The supporters of the FDP evaluate the work of the federal government with an average grade of 4.3, similar to the supporters of the Union parties. The judgment of the BSW supporters is even more negative. With a clear margin, the evaluation of the federal government by the supporters of the AfD is the worst.
Traffic light at the lowest value
The poor grades for the federal government are also reflected in the weekly trend barometer: The government parties SPD, Greens, and FDP currently receive a combined 30% of the votes in a Bundestag election - this is the lowest value that Forsa in the trend barometer has measured for the traffic light parties so far.
In comparison to the previous week, SPD and FDP each lose a point, and the Union also loses a point. The AfD, the BSW, and the other parties each gain a point.
Concretely, the parties could calculate with the following results if the Bundestag were to be elected in this week: CDU/CSU 30%, AfD 17%, SPD 14%, Greens 11%, BSW 8%, FDP 5%, others 15%.
The share of non-voters and undecided voters currently remains significantly below the share of non-voters at the last Bundestag election (23.4%).
If the federal chancellor were not elected by the Bundestag but directly by the electorate, Olaf Scholz would currently receive 25% of the votes in comparison to CDU leader Friedrich Merz. That's two points less than in the previous week. Merz received unchanged 28% of the votes. Neither of the two would be chosen by 47% of the electorate.
In response to the question of which party in Germany will best solve the problems, 20 percent name the Union. This is a decrease of two points compared to the previous week. The SPD are trusted with political competence by 7 percent - one point less. For the Greens, this trust amounts to 5 percent, for the FDP to 2 percent, for the AfD to 8 percent, and for other parties to 4 percent. 54 percent do not trust any party with the solution of problems in Germany.
The data for the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer were collected by the market and opinion research institute Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany between the 2nd and 8th of July. Sample size: 2504 respondents. Margin of error: plus/minus 2.5 percentage points. The data for the school grades for the federal government were collected on the 5th and 8th of July. Sample size: 1007 respondents. Margin of error: plus/minus 3 percentage points.
Further information on Forsa can be found here.
Forsa surveys on behalf of RTL Germany.
- In the Federal election 2025 surveys, the Alliance 90/The Greens, along with SPD and FDP, are currently struggling with low ratings in the RTL/ntv trend barometer.
- The CDU, CSU, and AfD are performing better in these surveys compared to the traffic light coalition parties, as the trend barometer shows.
- According to the RTL/ntv trend barometer, Friedrich Merz from the CDU/CSU is currently ahead of Olaf Scholz in terms of voter support if the federal chancellor were to be elected directly by the electorate.
- In the RTL/ntv trend barometer, the CSU is also performing well, alongside the CDU and AfD, while the FDP's ratings remain similar to those of the traffic light coalition parties.
- The supporters of the CSU, CDU, and AfD generally give the federal government more positive evaluations in surveys, while the supporters of SPD, Greens, and FDP give more moderate ratings.
- The RTL/ntv trend barometer also shows that the BSW, a smaller party, has more negative views towards the federal government, with ratings even lower than those of the traffic light coalition parties.
