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Traffic light method: And the sun rises again and again

It went well again. Or did it? After a long struggle, the traffic light coalition has agreed on key points for a budget. The Chancellor is delighted - and his SPD is furious.

From left: Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP), Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD)...
From left: Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP), Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens)

Household - Traffic light method: And the sun rises again and again

The Chancellor has weary eyes but also a wide smile on his face. It all went well, didn't it? Mmh.

Early on Friday morning, the agreement was reached, it was once again hard political labor. According to rumors, the traffic light coalition leaders were supposed to have understood each other on the key points for the budget 2025 around six o'clock, it was reportedly negotiated throughout the night, mainly in the Chancellery's Kanzler residence.

"Keep your eyes open during the job application", Wolfgang Schmidt, Scholz' right-hand man, joked as he met journalists after the night session. The Chancellor-in-Chief, who was reportedly already working overtime on Wednesdays, had obviously not given much thought to sleep.

A premature end to the traffic light coalition has been averted, that's the good news. The bad news: The dispute over the budget for the coming year has left deep rifts in the coalition, or rather deepened the already existing ones.

The Chancellor may be able to demonstrate nerves of steel, as he likes to emphasize himself. But what good is that if the parliamentarians lose their nerves?

For months, Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Economic Minister Robert Habeck, and Finance Minister Christian Lindner have been in a cozy circle, fighting for the agreement. Lindner counts a total of 23 meetings and 80 hours that the trio has spent in the Chancellery. The traffic light factions were mostly kept out of the loop, as they are now supposed to bring the budget as a law before Parliament.

Now the budget draft, as well as an economic package and a supplementary budget for the current year, are on the table. But the frustration over the traffic light coalition's working methods is great, especially in the Chancellor's party.

SPD Fraktion Chairman Rolf Mützenich called for a special session at 7 o'clock in the Otto-Wels-Saal in the Bundestag. The Chancellor was supposed to at least give a "political statement" on where the journey with the budget is going, give a "clear signal" about what the comrades can expect. And that before the parliamentary recess, which begins on this Friday. It was also an invitation to report.

Who knows if Scholz would have pursued the agreement until Friday without the massive pressure from his fraction, with binding statements about how the budget 2025 should look. The suspicion is strong.

After Scholz presented the results behind closed doors, Fraktionschef Mützenich demanded a written document. He obviously wanted to have it in black and white what the trio had discussed. Possibly also in the hope that these deliberations would be further clarified. Scholz asked for the support of the fraction.

The gentlemen have digested it. Less from the Chancellor, more from the Liberals. The reason for this is also in the desired document that Scholz will send to his colleagues at noon: The debt brake will not be tampered with. The declaration of a state of emergency, which the Social Democrats strongly demanded, is not part of the solution.

A clear victory for Christian Lindner and the FDP, who did not move an inch in this matter. The boost for the SPD? Irrelevant. The anger among the colleagues is great. Despite all the relief that a compromise has been reached, all coalition partners can gather without objection.

"We don't always make it easy for ourselves," admits the Chancellor, adding that they had also spent half the night looking for solutions. Otherwise, Scholz, Habeck, and Lindner tried to demonstrate unity during the joint presentation of the results. The solution is "all in one go," says Scholz, "good for prosperity, security, and the government." Habeck and Lindner add: "All said."

But is it really?

The cabinet will decide on the budget draft on July 17. Therefore, there is still plenty of time to publicly discuss this and that point of agreement. This is not the first time in this turbulent coalition.

And as a reminder: These are the key points of a draft that now needs to be finalized. This will then be handed over to the parliamentarians, who will turn it into a law. Officially, it starts in September, but the debate has been going on for a while. The Greens are already complaining about cuts in various budget areas, the SPD "a lot of tricks" in financing, only the FDP looks quite satisfied.

In short: Further disagreement could still arise in the traffic light coalition, to the delight of the opposition.

The ball is round and the game lasts 90 minutes, that's what Scholz, Habeck, and Lindner also know. It was a long day, but they are already thinking about the evening. Germany faces Spain in the quarterfinals of the European Football Championship. Who will win? The Chancellor predicts a 1:0, Lindner bets on 2:1, Habeck even calculates with a 3:1. The demonstrative unity is soon over.

But Germany wins, that's what the coalition leaders are sure of.

  1. The traffic light coalition leaders, including Christian Lindner from the FDP, worked through the night to reach an agreement on the budget 2025.
  2. After the negotiations, Rolf Mützenich, the SPD Fraktion Chairman, called for a special meeting in the Bundestag for the Chancellor to give a clear statement on the budget journey.
  3. During the joint presentation of the results, Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck, and Christian Lindner demonstrated unity and claimed that the solution is "all in one go" for prosperity, security, and the government.
  4. The aging Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who has been working overtime, has managed to avoid a premature end to the traffic light coalition, but deep rifts remain within the coalition.
  5. Christian Lindner and the FDP have achieved a significant victory in ensuring that the debt brake will not be tampered with in the budget draft, but the frustration among coalition partners is high.
  6. As the cabinet decides on the budget draft on July 17, further disagreement could still arise within the traffic light coalition, to the delight of the opposition.

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