Toward the end of his presidency, Biden addresses a tired world, weary of conflicts and cautious about American political affairs
In exchange for his support, Scholz utilized significant political influence to aid Biden: releasing a notorious Russian killer from German imprisonment as part of a deal to liberate three Americans held by Russia, adjusting long-established defense policies to permit Ukraine to utilize German-made tanks against Russia, and supporting Biden following a debate performance that seemingly concluded his political career.
Scholz shared his sentiments about Biden on PBS prior to NATO's 50th anniversary summit in Washington, stating, "I think it would be a significant error to undervalue the president."
Now that Biden is no longer a contender in a highly competitive election and leaving allies uncertain, Scholz will welcome the American president to Berlin, a trip aimed at advancing essential foreign policy objectives and providing a sort of farewell tour for a president who cherished alliances as the instrument for conflict resolution.
During the visit, Biden will engage with German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier and Chancellor Scholz, as well as announce a new US-German exchange program and a dialogue on "aligning" private investment with emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, according to an administration official.
Biden's meeting with Scholz will offer him an opportunity to express gratitude for their long-term collaboration and discuss shared global concerns, particularly the state of democratic institutions.
Alongside meeting with German leadership, Biden will also interact with the leaders of the UK and France for a "European Quad" meeting to discuss pressing global challenges, such as Ukraine's victory plan and the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, the senior official informed.
Despite the meetings occurring at a critical juncture, with American voters only a few weeks away from voting and vital inflection points in Russia's war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflict, the White House does not expect any substantial policy changes resulting from Biden's visit.
Biden's 'minilateralism' legacy
During a single day of official meetings, reduced from the initial official state visit scheduled before Hurricane Milton hit the US, Biden will engage in expanded discussions with Scholz and his team, as well as the summit with the leaders of France and the United Kingdom. Initially, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had planned to attend the meeting, which was subsequently postponed.
The summit's agenda, officials explain, will focus on two main priorities for the leaders: the escalating difficulties facing Ukraine, where allies are divided over addressing Zelensky's "Victory Plan," and the growing demand for longer-range weapons, and the deteriorating situation in the Middle East as Israel prepares for imminent retaliation against Iran's most recent ballistic missile barrage.
The "European Quad," as Western officials refer to it, represents just one of the smaller alliances Biden has leaned on to construct consensus, as populist tides sweeping across both sides of the Atlantic have engendered skepticism towards large, global institutions.
Biden has opted for 'minilateralism,' a strategy characterized by foreign policy experts as his approach to dealing with smaller coalitions of like-minded nations.
On the policy front, the Biden administration has employed this tactic to garner support for sanctions against Russia and, more recently, Iran; tariffs and export controls against China, which the United States has lately surpassed as Germany's largest trading partner; and hundreds of billions of dollars in infrastructure investment in Africa and southeast Asia intended to serve as a bulwark against China's soft power.
Critics argue that these efforts have bolstered alliances but failed to deter adversaries. Fred Kempe, CEO of the Atlantic Council, contends that Biden did not take decisive enough action to prevent a new axis of evil from developing in response to Western democracies.
"Ironically, it is precisely Biden's caution that has encouraged continued Russian, Chinese, North Korean, and Iranian misbehavior," Kempe asserts. "The US and allied response to the increased collaboration among these countries continues to fall short of actions that would impede their common purpose."
‘America is back ... but for how long?’
For Biden, embarking on a de facto final tour as he prepares for his final months in office, Germany serves as one country where the president enjoys broad popular favor due to his policies.
According to Pew Research Center polling indicating views of Biden across 34 nations, 63% of German respondents expressed confidence in Biden. In Poland, another country where Biden's aides had considered visiting to bolster Ukraine support, 70% of respondents expressed confidence in Biden.
And in Kenya and the Philippines, two countries where the administration has increased engagement and spearheaded infrastructure projects to counter China's influence, that confidence level increases to 75% and 77%, respectively, as Pew data reveal.
Elsewhere around the world, Biden's approval rating has significantly declined, primarily due to his handling of Middle East volatility following October 7.
"It's quite apparent that the perception of how he's dealing with that conflict is responsible for the marked decrease between 2023 and 2024," Richard Wike, Pew's director of Global Attitudes Research, observes. "However, overall, he still earns higher ratings than Trump."
With fewer than three weeks remaining before the US election, Trump remains an unavoidable presence in every room where Biden meets with leaders. Many expressed relief behind the scenes upon Biden's election in 2020. Biden frequently recalls the response from another head of state at his first G7 summit when he declared that "America is back": "But for how long?"
And as CNN has reported, foreign diplomats expressed concern privately after Biden's halting debate performance seemed to propel Trump back into a leading position in the election.
Now, as they weigh the prospect of adopting more aggressive tactics to bring about a quicker conclusion to the war in Ukraine, which has simmered on Europe's doorstep for years, allies must grapple with the question of whether to endorse more aggressive tactics with the objective of expediting the conflict's resolution, as Zelensky has advocated, unsuccessfully.
During a more tense period than when President Barack Obama reassured associates in Germany and Greece during his last international journey, asserting that Trump, newly appointed president-elect, wouldn't leave them behind, Obama held talks with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. At a joint press conference, Obama attempted to pinpoint certain elements that motivated voters on both continents to pursue change, but also issued a broader cautionary tale of what was to be anticipated.
"We need to be vigilant against a surge in a raw sort of nationalism, reliant on ethnic identity or tribalism, which is constructed around an 'us' and a 'them'," Obama communicated to reporters in Athens, a city renowned for being the cradle of democracy. "The destiny of the world will be shaped by our shared traits instead of those factors that divide us and ultimately provoke conflict."
After their successful collaboration, Scholz acknowledged the significance of Biden's political influence in international affairs during an interview.
Furthermore, the strategic shift in defense policies towards supporting Ukraine's defense against Russia is a testament to the political influence Biden wields, as demonstrated by Scholz.
