Tory "civil war" over asylum law: Sunak caught between the fronts

Great Britain - Tory "civil war" over asylum law: Sunak caught between the fronts

29 and 57 are the numbers that Rishi Sunak must fear. If 29 of his Conservative Party's 350 MPs vote against his new asylum bill in parliament on Tuesday or 57 abstain, the project will fail - and the British Prime Minister's political fate is likely to be sealed. "He would have to give in to one side of his divided party, but that would anger the other side," political analyst Mark Garnett told the German Press Agency. The party would probably topple Sunak - or the head of government would call new elections sooner than expected.

At the heart of the Tory "civil war", as commentators call the dispute, is the crackdown on irregular migrants who enter the country in small boats across the English Channel. Sunak has promised to stop these arrivals. The new law is intended to act as a deterrent: it provides for irregular asylum seekers to be deported to Rwanda regardless of their origin - without the possibility of return. In order to prevent those affected from taking legal action in British courts, the invocation of British human rights is expressly excluded.

Right-wing Tory wing rejects law as inadequate

However, the right wing of the Tory party does not think the internationally controversial plan goes far enough. Sunak's draft does provide for Rwanda to be declared a safe third country - despite the fact that the UK's highest court recently criticized deficits in the rule of law in the East African country. Hardliners such as former Interior Minister Suella Braverman, however, are calling for the withdrawal from the European Convention on Human Rights so that those affected can no longer turn to international courts.

This in turn goes far too far for the moderate part of the parliamentary group, which also has around 100 MPs. They fear for their reputation if Great Britain obviously disregards international human rights and courts. If Sunak does comply with the demands of the right, the left of the party is likely to rebel. The 43-year-old is caught between the fronts. "His authority is in the hands of two hostile Tory tribes", commented the Guardian newspaper recently. Even if the bill goes through as proposed, the dispute will only be postponed and is likely to flare up again later, said expert Garnett from Lancaster University.

Migration as an important election issue

Migration has long been one of the most important issues for the Tories in the upcoming election campaign. A new parliament must be elected by January 2025, with commentators expecting a vote in the fall of 2024 at the latest. In the polls, Sunak's Conservatives are far behind the Social Democratic Labour Party. The Tories still see a chance to keep their voters in line by taking tough action against irregular immigrants.

But instead of presenting a united front, the dispute over the how is causing new chaos and mutual accusations. As in the Brexit debates under the then Prime Minister Theresa May, the far-right are staging themselves in parliamentary groups such as the European Research Group (ERG) to exert pressure on Downing Street. A "Star Chamber" of right-wing conservative justice experts gave Sunak's plans the thumbs down in front of the cameras. By then it was obvious that the Prime Minister no longer had his political fate in his own hands.

Sunak remained inactive for a long time

According to observers, Sunak himself is to blame for the increasingly loud debate. For days he let the dispute run its course, relying on the so-called Whips, the whips responsible for discipline in the parliamentary group, as well as the charm of his Foreign Secretary and predecessor David Cameron.

But flattery - allegedly even life seats in the House of Lords were offered - and threats such as an early re-election did not work. It was only on Monday that Sunak, who was caught up in hours of testimony before the Independent Corona Commission of Inquiry, sent his Home Secretary James Cleverly into talks with potential rebels. On Tuesday morning, the prime minister then wanted to meet personally with the right-wing New Conservatives group.

Only the vote in the evening will show whether it will be enough. Exactly four years to the day after their brilliant election victory in 2019, the vote could hasten the end for the Conservatives. Some are already calling for the winner of that election to take over the party again. His name: Boris Johnson.