- Tight contest between CDU and AfD in Saxony's elections, with BSW trailing behind
In the recent Saxony state election, CDU and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) are in a tight race for the leading position. As per forecasts, the Union is losing a few votes compared to 2019 but is just barely ahead. Notably, AfD is gaining ground. The Minister President, Michael Kretschmer, expresses confidence in CDU's ability to form a government, however, formation may be challenging as other parties refuse to collaborate with AfD.
Placing third is the new alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) at a distance. The Greens are on the verge of not making it into the state parliament, while The Left is struggling to surpass the five percent threshold and may be ousted from parliament.
BSW manages to score double-digit points in its debut election. According to projections (around 8:30 PM), CDU is at approximately 31.5 to 31.8 percent (2019: 32.1 percent), with AfD close behind at 30.7 to 31.4 percent (27.5). BSW debuts with 11.5 to 12.0 percent. SPD is at 7.6 percent (7.7). The Left is falling to 4.1 to 4.3 percent (10.4), less than the five percent threshold.
The Greens are also at risk with 5.1 to 5.2 percent (8.6). The Free Democratic Party (FDP) continues to fail to enter the state parliament, as in the past two elections. Parties below the five percent mark can still enter parliament if they win two direct mandates based on their second vote results.
AfD, classified by the Saxony Office for the Protection of the Constitution as a securely right-wing extremist, is projected to secure 40 to 41 seats (38), with CDU attaining 41 to 42 mandates (45). BSW will have 16 to 17 members. SPD will have 10 seats (10), and Greens will have 7 seats (12).
Approximately 3.3 million citizens were eligible to vote. Voter turnout was 73.5 to 74.0 percent.
Kretschmer expects difficult government formation
Minister President Kretschmer believes his party is capable of continuing to govern the state following the initial numbers. "This won't be easy," Kretschmer said at the CDU's election party. "But one thing is certain: With numerous conversations and a strong will to serve this land, it can be achieved to provide Saxony with a stable government that serves the land and progresses with humility." The CDU is ready to take responsibility for this land once more.
CDU may rely on BSW
Since reunification, the CDU has continuously provided the state's head of government, most recently Kretschmer, who has governed since 2019 in a coalition with Greens and SPD. However, this alliance may not be possible under the current projections. A CDU government supported by BSW and SPD is mathematically feasible.
However, BSW leader Wagenknecht was once a member of the SED and later became an emblem of the communist platform within The Left, which makes many CDU politicians uncomfortable. A coalition is still possible, as the CDU has a ban on cooperating with AfD or The Left, but there's no such restriction on BSW, which has split from The Left.
Before the election, the Greens accused CDU and SPD of sermonizing a joint minority government. CDU and SPD have cooperated in coalitions in Saxony three times previously.
The AfD had previously bested the Union in Saxony in two federal elections and one European election. If it now outperforms the Union in the state parliament, it would have a so-called "blocking minority": For decisions and elections requiring a two-thirds majority, the AfD's consent would be required. For instance, constitutional judges are elected by the parliament with a two-thirds majority.
AfD's federal chair Alice Weidel described the outcomes of the elections in Thuringia and Saxony as a historical success for her party. At the same time, she said in the ARD that it was a rebuke of the federal coalition government. Weidel also criticized the CDU's stance of ruling out a coalition with the AfD, labeling it "blatant disregard for the voters' will." Without the AfD, a stable government would be impossible, she said.
BSW's top candidate expresses satisfaction
Saxony's BSW top candidate Sabine Zimmermann expressed satisfaction with her party's result. "We're in double digits and we've maintained the result from the European election. We can be proud of that, and we are," she said in the ARD. Politics must change, and that's noticeable to citizens as well, she added. "And that's happening in a short time."
In the ZDF, she ruled out a coalition with the AfD again and looked towards the Christian Democrats instead.
SPD's top candidate expresses relief
SPD's top candidate Petra Köpping expressed relief at her party's performance. "I'm just as happy as you are that we've accomplished so well in this really tough campaign, which we've been fighting for months, almost years, despite all the predictions," she said.
The political landscape was intense, with the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Germany's affiliation with Ukraine as an ally within NATO serving as a major point of controversy. Sventea-Wagenknecht emphasized that for the BSW to join a government, it should unequivocally reject the installation of US long-range missiles in German territory.
The refugee issue and migration discussions intensified following the horrific knife attack in Solingen. Regrettably, three individuals lost their lives, and the German federal prosecutor's office suspects an Islamist Syrian refugee as the culprit.
The Social Democratic Party (SPD) placed third in the recent Saxony state election, trailing behind the new alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW. In the upcoming government formation, the SPD might be called upon to collaborate with other parties, potentially including the CDU or BSW, to form a stable government.
