Thuringia exhibits instability, pro-Ukraine opposition parties are losing ground.
Following the state elections in Saxony and Thuringia, Germany, the public should adapt to the reality that the AfD has become the dominant party. Although it's unlikely to govern, this is a significant milestone. However, there are additional lessons to be learned from these elections.
1. The AFD's ascension persists
Surveys have indicated this trend for quite some time now, and it's finally materialized: The AFD is racking up impressive results in the state elections. In Thuringia, it's the strongest party for the very first time in its history, and for the first time in the Federal Republic, a classified right-wing extremist party has emerged victorious in an election. In Saxony, the AFD has achieved comparable results. In both states, the AFD has surpassed the threshold to prevent crucial decisions such as constitutional amendments.
In Thuringia, the strategy of forming governments without the AFD has reached its limits. Even a coalition of CDU, SPD, and BSW wouldn't have its own majority. Only if the Left party joins would it be sufficient. However, the CDU has ruled out this possibility. The Left party could tolerate a minority government of the three mentioned parties. But before the election, all parties stated they wanted a government with their own majority. Furthermore, the AFD could position itself as the only alternative to the other parties.
2. Wagenknecht, the resounding victor
Is the AFD truly the main winner? No, Sahra Wagenknecht is the real winner! Her radiant smile outshone all of the AFD's nuclear power plant projects combined on Sunday evening. This is also due to the severe criticism she's received from other parties and the media, which has reportedly taken its toll on her. However, she has now achieved the seemingly impossible, alongside a small, discreet group that includes her husband, Oskar Lafontaine: entering the parliaments of two federal states with double-digit numbers at the first attempt. Even a majority government is not possible without the BSW, as long as the other parties maintain the barrier against the AFD.
This makes the BSW a influential factor far beyond the eastern part of the country overnight. It demands a different Ukraine policy and a reform of the debt brake. This is a problem for the CDU and SPD if they want to form a coalition with the BSW. It's also noteworthy that the BSW has grown, not at the expense of the AFD, but by winning voters from the other parties. What will these parties do now to prevent a similar success in the next federal election?
3. Anti-Ukraine parties gain traction
They are "just" state elections - but anyone who believes that the direct impacts of the Saxon and Thuringian elections on the federal level will be limited is mistaken. The leader and namesake of the BSW intends to leverage her election success and the intricate situation surrounding government formation without the right-wing extremist AFD for federal politics. Her condition for government coalitions is: no further weapons for Ukraine and no US intermediate-range missiles in Germany. This cold-heartedness makes sense for the BSW, as Wagenknecht has been making politics with these security issues for months. The AFD, which also opposes further support for Ukraine with weapons and demands negotiations between the Russian aggressor and the defending Ukraine, shares this critical stance towards the NATO partner USA.
Staying Together: BSW and AFD in Thuringia barely miss the half of all votes cast, while in Saxony they manage over 40 percent. This also reflects the fact that a large part of the population in Eastern Germany does not support the Chancellor's "as long as it takes" approach to supporting Ukraine against Russian invasion. BSW and AFD have benefited from this stance, although the AFD's gains are not reflected at the federal level due to its unpopularity. However, BSW may now attempt to push its pro-Russia positions in the federal government by forming working majorities in the states, a move that would be unprecedented for future coalition partners. Starting such a collaboration under these circumstances would be a disastrous beginning.
CDU: The Last Wall Against AFD
The CDU secured around 30 percent in both Saxony and Thuringia, showcasing AFD's success. However, in Saxony, the CDU narrowly leads, while in Thuringia, it surpassed expectations with 24 percent and took second place. The CDU has demonstrated an effective approach to addressing the public's concerns about immigration, a key theme of the AFD. This is particularly evident in Thuringia's debate on the asylum seeker work requirement. The party has also distanced itself from the policies of the Merkel era at the federal level.
Saxony's Minister President Michael Kretschmer accomplished his goal of becoming the strongest force ahead of the AFD. However, his plea for SPD and Green voters to strategically vote did not yield many additional votes. Rightfully so, as the CDU is not a catch-all party for those who don't want a strong AFD. Preventing the AFD requires strong Greens or a strong SPD. It's also important to note that AFD voters cannot be solely seen as misguided CDU voters. Voters from all other parties, including the Left and SPD, have joined the AFD in recent years. All parties must now consider how to win back AFD voters.
The Left is Departed, Despite King Bodo
This night saw plenty of chat about history, yet Oskar Lafontaine was scarcely mentioned. Yet, he played a significant role in the decline of his second party. The Left party, born under his leadership, once stripped the SPD of its "people's party" title. Now, alongside Wagenknecht and the BSW project, Lafontaine has effectively killed off the Left as an Eastern force. The AfD's rise had already weakened this position, but Wagenknecht's faction's departure from the Left also dealt a heavy blow. Bodo Ramelow, despite his high personal popularity, lost his position as Thuringia's Minister President due to the AfD's rise and Wagenknecht's secession.
Ramelow at least managed to save the Left from being eliminated in Thuringia. Saxony, however, doesn't have its own Ramelow, but it does have Leipzig: Two candidates from the Left's stronghold districts secured the party's return to parliament. In Brandenburg, the party is fighting to avoid expulsion on September 22. Now, the Left is a niche party, present everywhere but lacking future prospects. A return to the Bundestag in 2025 is possible only through direct mandates, with Leipzig and possibly even Ramelow playing key roles.
The Traffic Light Coalition is an Outsider in the East
(No changes made to this section as it was already in English)
What a success for the SPD in September 2021! No other party won as many federal constituencies in the East as the Scholz party. And now? Although it lost few voters compared to the 2019 state elections, it has become a small party in Saxony and Thuringia, hovering close to the 5% threshold, instead of the BSW. And the Greens? They just barely managed to stay in the Saxony parliament thanks to urban voters. Thuringia lacks enough urban areas for the Greens. And the FDP? Yes, it's there, if you look really closely: Indeed, the party of Federal Finance Minister Christian Lindner was the 1% party in the final result.
The unpopularity of the traffic light coalition in the East isn't new, but it's still concerning: The federal traffic light coalition is, at least, an outsider in Thuringia and Saxony. The gap between the people there and the Berlin decision-makers (no, not all of them use gender-neutral language) seems nearly impossible to bridge. Despite Scholz and Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck's efforts - with numerous visits or lighthouse projects like the chip and semiconductor factories in Magdeburg and Dresden - they have yet to reach the East. The reasons are numerous. The realization, 35 years after reunification, is concerning.
7. Thuringia is Ungovernable
Five years ago, the people of Thuringia gave their politicians a tough result. This was followed by five years of minority government with the Left, SPD, and Greens. "Never again!" was the consensus of all involved. But now it seems like exactly that could happen again. Even if the CDU, SPD, and BSW were to govern together, they wouldn't reach the absolute majority. The CDU rules out an alliance with the AfD and Left. So, there's only a renewed minority government of the mentioned parties - with the Left's tolerance. That would be nothing short of an adventure.
And now? Maybe this is the new normal. Maybe, at least in Thuringia, the era of clear circumstances is over. But if minority governments become the norm, the rulers might find ways to make something of it. Other countries have that too. But for now, frustration prevails. The 32.8% for the AfD can no longer be ignored or dismissed with a laugh. Thuringia has at least become ungovernable in the traditional sense.
- Despite the CDU's efforts to prevent the AFD from becoming dominant, the results showed that the CDU was the second strongest party in Thuringia, trailing behind the AFD.
- In the negotiations for a coalition government in Thuringia, the CDU has reiterated its refusal to cooperate with the AFD, which could potentially leave the AFD as the kingmaker in the state politics.
