- Thuringia and Saxony moving forward toward election day
In Thuringia and Saxony, the political race is reaching its climax prior to vital state elections. These elections on Sunday are predicted to trigger intricate coalition-building procedures in both states and function as a significant indicator of public sentiment before next year's federal election. The leading parties, SPD, Greens, and FDP, confront the threat of a calamitous result.
The conduct of the AfD is under evaluation. This party, identified as firmly extreme-right by the domestic intelligence agency in both states, could become the strongest force in state elections for the first time. In Erfurt, the AfD's political rally finale on Saturday attracted around 1,300 individuals, according to law enforcement. The attendance of right-wing activist Björn Höcke and AfD co-chair Alice Weidel was accompanied by more than 2,500 counter-protesters. "We won't let the AfD seize control of the election weekend with its extreme-right hate speech, intimidate people, and misuse our city as a platform for its propaganda," stated the "On the Spots" union. Law enforcement officers were deployed in large numbers.
Weidel declared at a campaign event the previous evening: "The future of Germany will be decided in Saxony, Thuringia, and later in Brandenburg." However, no potential coalition partners for the party are currently visible in either Dresden or Erfurt.
Pivotal role for new entrant BSW
Instead, the recently established union "Stand Up" (BSW) spearheaded by Sahra Wagenknecht might take on a decisive role in coalition-building. In Thuringia, only an extraordinary coalition of CDU, BSW, and SPD would command a politically viable majority, according to surveys. Such a coalition, however, could be challenging, as Wagenknecht was formerly a member of the SED and later became a symbol of the communist platform within The Left - a fact that unsettles several CDU politicians. The current red-red-green minority government of Minister President Bodo Ramelow (The Left) is unlikely to secure a majority, according to surveys.
SPD leader Saskia Esken criticized the strong performance of parties like AfD and BSW in polls. "That's alarming and particularly surprising given the BSW's impressive showing. People seem ready to bet on an unknown quantity," she told the "Augsburger Allgemeine".
In Saxony, BSW could also impact government formation. However, a renewal of the existing coalition of Minister President Michael Kretschmer (CDU) with Greens and SPD is plausible. Other parties could also partake. The CDU has not dismissed a coalition with BSW, unlike with The Left.
On Saturday, The Left held a rally in Gera to mobilize voters, attended by Minister President Ramelow, outgoing co-chair Martin Schirdewan, and Gregor Gysi.
Meanwhile, thousands of individuals protested in Dresden the evening prior to the state election for solidarity, diversity, and democracy. More than 70 associations, collectives, and groups had called for the large demonstration "Tolerade".
Polls: AfD leads in Thuringia, second in Saxony
In recent times, polls have revealed the AfD leading in Thuringia with values ranging from 29 to 30 percent, ahead of the CDU with 22 to 23 percent. The Left comes in at 13 to 14 percent, trailing BSW, which is polling at 17 to 18 percent. The SPD could receive 6 to 7 percent. The Greens could fail to enter the state parliament with 4 percent.
In Saxony, recent polls showed a tight race between the CDU and AfD, with the most recent ZDF "Politbarometer" placing the CDU ahead with 33 percent. The AfD would then follow closely with 30 to 31 percent. However, an Insa survey conducted just a few days earlier revealed the AfD narrowly ahead of the CDU. The BSW would come in third with 12 to 15 percent. The SPD would once again secure representation in the state parliament with 6 to 7 percent, as would the Greens with 6 percent, although they are dangerously close to the five percent hurdle. The Left would have to be concerned about re-entering the parliament with 4 percent. It's important to note that all polls are subject to uncertainties and only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey, not a prediction of the election outcome.
The political race was intense. A source of contention was Russia's conflict against Ukraine and Germany's role as Kyiv's ally and within NATO. The debate over asylum and migration was further intensified by the suspected Islamist knife attack in Solingen. In recent months, there have also been several attacks on politicians and election helpers.
In light of the intense political race and upcoming state elections, there are concerns about the potential impact of the AfD, classified as an extreme-right party by domestic intelligence agencies, on the coalition-building processes. Given Weidel's statement about the future of Germany being decided in Saxony and Thuringia, the protection of the Constitution becomes a crucial concern, as an AfD victory could shift the political landscape significantly. Moreover, the strong performance of new entrant BSW, led by Sahra Wagenknecht, could potentially disrupt existing coalition possibilities, requiring careful consideration in upholding the Constitution's principles and ensuring political stability.
