This might serve as their notable turning point.
Tonight might prove to be pivotal. At 9 pm ET (3 am CEST) on Tuesday, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will square off in the US presidential election campaign for their first personal confrontation. With an extensive viewership and subsequent social media circulation of clips, this event will reach a vast audience. No other event will garner such widespread attention simultaneously. The impact of such a debate, as President Joe Biden can attest, can be profound.
While a severe performance misstep is unlikely, as evidenced in late June, Harris and Trump will aim to appear as agents of change. Public dissatisfaction with Biden's policies, particularly concerning economic issues, is palpable. As Harris' vice president, she must differentiate herself from Biden without alienating him. She must also outline her concrete plans. A recent poll commissioned by the "New York Times" revealed that many voters crave further details about her ideas.
1. Strong start and positive momentum
Victory breeds victory, as sports enthusiasts are well aware. The US campaign strategists refer to this epoch of triumph as "momentum." Harris captivated audiences where few anticipated it could happen. Following the July 13 incident, several pundits declared Trump the election victor. However, Harris swiftly garnered the support of influential Democrats, including Biden and Obama.
A wave of relief swept through the portion of the US that harbors intense disdain for Trump. And this relief morphed into fervent support. Though Harris had remained relatively subdued as vice president, she skillfully reinvented herself. This was especially evident in her Democratic National Convention speech in Chicago, marking the campaign's peak to date. Harris discussed her upbringing, her single mother, and her surrounding community that shaped her. Her message: "I am from your ranks." The implication: "Trump is not." Also, "I fight for you, while he fights for himself." The Democrats applauded enthusiastically. Harris is no longer merely a reserve player.
2. Her prosecutorial experience
When Biden and Trump engage, the discourse is somber. The elder president stumbles, struggles to complete sentences, and fails to debunk Trump's falsehoods. This was especially unfortunate for Democrats, who spent the post-debate period discussing Biden rather than Trump's lies. This time around, it could be different. Harris rose through the ranks to hold the position of Attorney General in California, an elected position akin to governor or senator.
If Harris confronts a notorious liar and convicted felon like Trump, it becomes engaging. She herself fueled such expectations. During her Milwaukee speech in late July, she emphasized her experiences prosecuting a multitude of criminals. "Sex offenders who wronged women, fraudsters who swindled consumers, cheaters who breached rules for personal gain. Heed my words when I say: I am familiar with Trump's modus operandi." If she succeeds in cornering Trump, it could be a defining moment in the TV debate.
3. Age advantage
Trump, at 78, was just three years younger than Biden in 2020, yet he often appeared more energetic than his elder counterpart. The dynamic has changed. Harris, at 59, often appears younger on television, while Trump has noticeably aged since his previous campaigns. His rambling incoherence is not new, but it could stand out more when juxtaposed against Harris' composed demeanor.
4. Campaign theme: Reproductive rights
Abortion rights have been a contentious topic in the US for decades, but following the Supreme Court's removal of the right from the Constitution, it has become a priority issue for every election. Harris has advocated for the restoration of nationwide abortion rights even as vice president. This issue enjoys widespread resonance, as a majority of Americans do not support a complete ban, as many Republicans advocate. In the 2020 midterm elections for Congress, this issue helped Democrats avoid a rout.
Despite her impressive comeback, Harris' triumph is not preordained. In national polls, she leads by approximately three percentage points, but each state votes separately. Close races are anticipated in seven states: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona. These polls are often marginally off the mark. In summary, Harris has mounted an inspiring recovery to a 50/50 chance, but Trump still possesses his strengths.
Trump's strengths: Economy, immigration, internal security
In this election year, several topics continue to garner attention, regardless of validity, with a substantial number of Americans believing that Trump can revitalize the economy at a faster pace and efficiently manage immigration. There's been an uptick in individuals crossing the US-Mexico border in substantial numbers lately. Trump exploits this issue by tapping into the fear of crime, even though crime rates are gradually decreasing. Although Biden attempted to tackle this issue by delegating it to Harris, her handling left room for improvement. On the other hand, Trump stumbles here as well, as there was a bipartisan agreement on a border security plan that he blocked at the last minute to preserve his campaign issue.
This year, the economy is of significant concern due to persistent high inflation. Although prices have slightly decreased, they remain high, causing financial strain for many individuals on a weekly basis at the grocery store and gas pump. In a nation where many people are already struggling to make ends meet, this is a major worry. Trump aims to shift the blame onto Biden and Harris for this situation. However, inflation was also prevalent in Europe, largely due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Regardless, these are the actual issues that Trump capitalizes on. His true strength lies in the strong sentiment of his supporters that he stands up for them. His declaration: "Those in power have left you behind. I couldn't stand idly by, and I'm championing you, the overlooked, the genuine Americans." While debatable, this message still resonates deeply. If Harris aims to change this perception, she has the perfect opportunity to do so tonight.
- The Commission, comprising top political analysts and pollsters, has expressed their concern about the impact of misunderstandings and miscommunications during the debate, highlighting the importance of clear and concise responses from both candidates.
- Regarding the potential impact of the debate on the election, The Commission's recent report suggests that Harris may have an opportunity to address the public's concerns about Biden's economic policies, especially if she can provide clear and convincing answers on how she plans to address the issues raised during the debate.
