This is the subject of debate at the climate conference
More than 70,000 participants are expected to attend the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai. The organizers are confident that the mega event will be a success. But there is a threat of major controversy.
Opposites collide at the World Climate Conference, which begins this Thursday in Dubai. On the one hand, it is not only the new global temperature records this year that show that combating the climate crisis is becoming increasingly urgent. On the other hand, the global community is currently being distracted from this task by conflicts such as the war in Gaza and the war in Ukraine.
Climate activists, scientists and some countries believe that a global phase-out of fossil fuels should finally be initiated. However, the fossil fuel lobby is probably more strongly represented in Dubai than ever before. Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates want to host the most "inclusive" UN climate conference ever. Yet there is no independent civil society in the Gulf state itself.
More than 70,000 participants have been accredited for the 28th UN Climate Change Conference, COP28 for short. Almost 140 heads of state and government, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, will present their climate policy positions in person at the start of the two-week conference on Friday and Saturday.
CO2 storage becomes a point of debate
Martin Kaiser, CEO of Greenpeace Germany, is skeptical as to whether Scholz and his ministers will provide any important impetus in Dubai. After all, the German government is "now completely distracted" by the budget crisis at home.
The conference in Dubai is being chaired by Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, who is also his country's technology minister and climate envoy and head of the state oil company Adnoc. This met with much criticism in advance. At the same time, there is a vague hope that al-Jaber could get other oil and gas exporters on board with an agreement to phase out or at least significantly reduce the use of fossil fuels.
Al-Jaber has already made it clear that he wants to triple the expansion of renewable energies and double energy efficiency globally by 2030. The role to be played by so-called CCS technologies for capturing and storing the greenhouse gas CO2, which are not yet fully developed, is hotly disputed.
Middle East conflict has influence on climate movement
Greenpeace board member Kaiser emphasizes that as "we are racing so fast towards the abyss of the climate crisis", there can be no excuses or fig leaves. The expansion of renewables and the phase-out of fossil fuels must take place "simultaneously", not one after the other.
The Emirates want a showcase success at the COP. The Gulf monarchy is "very interested in a positive media response", says David Ryfisch, climate expert at Germanwatch. Polarization should therefore be kept "as low as possible" at the climate conference.
In an interview at the weekend, al-Jaber assured that he was "confident that COP28 will be the multilateral platform" to bring good news to the world.
The COP presidency should do everything in its power to ensure that the globally polarizing war between the terrorist organization Hamas and Israel does not interfere with the international climate negotiations. Whether it will succeed in doing so is questionable, as the lines of conflict in the Gaza war not only run right through the states, but also through the international climate protection movement.
Global warming heading for at least 2.5 degrees by 2100
However, the climate negotiations require full concentration. Firstly, the global stocktake is to be completed in Dubai - a global assessment of where the international community currently stands in terms of implementing the Paris Climate Agreement.
Last week, the UN Environment Program's Emissions Gap Report showed just how far it is lagging behind. Instead of the well below two degrees, but preferably 1.5 degrees, stipulated in the Paris Agreement, the earth is currently heading towards a warming of 2.5 degrees by 2100 - even if all international climate protection commitments are met. Global warming of around three degrees seems more realistic.
Even the warming that has already occurred has devastating consequences. All over the world, extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall are becoming more severe and more frequent, and new temperature records were reported in 2023.
Ongoing dispute over money at the climate conference
After years of wrangling, COP27 agreed to set up a loss-and-damage fund to compensate for the climate damage that has already occurred. The COP28 participants now have to design this and fill it with money.
A difficult undertaking in view of the ongoing dispute as to whether it is still only the traditional industrialized countries such as Germany that are responsible or also wealthy major greenhouse gas emitters such as China or Saudi Arabia.
In the view of Germanwatch expert Ryfisch, the global community should overcome all of this resistance in Dubai in its own interests so that the Earth remains a place worth living in: "We need a strong signal that neither lobbying nor armed conflicts can put the brakes on climate protection."
Source: www.ntv.de
