This female individual serves as an obvious statement to Putin.

This female individual serves as a blunt reminder for Putin.

It's a potential show of political intimidation to Russia: Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas is likely to become the new European Union's Representative for Foreign Affairs. For Kallas, relocating to Brussels would be a family tradition kind of deal.

The situation remains uncertain, but it's looking quite likely that Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas will become the European Union's Representative for Foreign Affairs. The proposed lineup satisfies regional and political requirements: The German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen continues as the head of the European Commission. The former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa, a Social Democrat, will be the President of the European Council - a position currently held by the Belgian Charles Michel. And Kaja Kallas will be the Representative for Foreign Affairs. Her Reform Party is part of the third largest faction in the European Parliament, the Liberals.

However, Kallas meets another requirement. Although Estonia has a smaller population than Munich, the words of the Estonian prime minister carry weight in the EU. "Kaja Kallas is respected by many because she belongs to a younger generation of politicians who are straightforward, practical, and sincere," says Ostpolitik expert Nico Lange of ntv.de. "Many Central and Northern Europeans find themselves in her positions."

In the past five years, the Spanish Social Democrat Josep Borrell has been the European Union's Representative for Foreign Affairs; in the top three positions of the European Union, Eastern Europe has not been represented. Expert Lange hopes that, if she gets the job, Kallas will bring new energy: "We desperately need more politicians in top positions who are in their 40s and fewer men over 60." Borrell was unpopular as Representative for Foreign Affairs "because he delivered little but often acted arrogantly," according to Lange. "With Kallas in this position, the EU would see a significant upgrade."

Trouble at Home

In reality, there are numerous reasons for Kallas - not just her age and the European quota. She was a member of the European Parliament for four years, from 2014 to 2018, and is familiar with the Brussels routine from the perspective of the Parliament. Her father was the first Estonian EU commissioner in Brussels. Most importantly, Kallas' appointment would be a clear signal to Russia.

As few other personalities at the helm of a NATO and EU state, Kallas passionately advocates for supporting Ukraine so it can defend itself against the Russian onslaught. "The Russian war against Ukraine has been going on for four years now," Kallas recently stated at the Ukraine summit in Switzerland. "Most of this time, the world has ignored it. Some hoped then and hope now that territorial concessions to the aggressor will bring peace. But they won't." Russia, Kallas stressed, is a colonial power, even if it's seldom seen that way.

Kallas' promotion also comes with an advantage: Her international reputation, which is highly regarded, has been tarnished at home. This is due to an affair involving her husband Arvo Hallik: Last year, it was revealed that Hallik had shares in a transport company that did business with Russia. Media in Estonia demanded his resignation, and at the European elections, her Reform Party lost eight points and fell to 18%.

This is not the reason why there was no agreement among EU leaders on the distribution of EU top posts during the informal summit on Monday evening. According to Rafael Loss from the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), it wasn't due to controversies over the circulating names. The real reason, Loss told ntv.de, is that the European People's Party (to which both CDU and CSU belong) is testing whether it can still exert influence after its election win. Kallas, for instance, is "no longer a very controversial candidate," Loss said. She consistently supports Ukraine and European defense capabilities. However, she also tries to "project a certain empathy." For example, by linking her family history with her political views to make them relatable to other parts of Europe, particularly those far from Russia and not sharing all their concerns.

At the summit in Switzerland, Kallas also referred to her family history: She spoke about her mother, who was deported to Siberia as a baby. Peace with Russian terms is equivalent to mass atrocities, oppression, and colonization, Kallas said. Unlike US President Joe Biden or Federal Chancellor Olaf Scholz, Kallas does not mince words when discussing how this war should end: "Ukraine must win, Russia must be driven out, and the Russian aggressor and war criminals must be brought before court," she demanded in an article for the magazine "Foreign Affairs" in 2022.

This isn't just talk, but backed up: In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), no country supports Ukraine more than the small Estonia - Germany ranks 13th, and the US 23rd, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. The same applies to the two percent NATO goal. While Germany barely exceeded the 2014 target this year, Estonian defense spending is at 3.43 percent of GDP - second only to Poland and ahead of the US.

"This would be a powerful message for the EU"

CDU security politician Roderich Kiesewetter likes Kallas' personality positively. "It would be desirable and would significantly strengthen the EU if Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas were to become the EU's Foreign Policy Chief in the future," he told ntv.de. "This would be a powerful message from the EU, finally to think more about European security."

In the same vein, Kallas, if appointed as the EU's Foreign Policy Chief, would serve as a potent deterrent against Russia. This is due to Kallas' persisting warnings about Russia's expansionist goals and its ongoing hybrid war against Europe, as well as his advocacy for significantly bolstering support for Ukraine. Noteworthy, it's Kallas who first proposed dedicating 0.25% of GDP towards military aid for Ukraine. Loss, an expert from the European Council on Foreign Relations, observes that as an EU external representative, Kallas' focus on the Russia issue is inevitable, yet it's a given regardless.

His proposal garnered sympathy from Scholz, as Germany is already extending assistance beyond the proposed 0.25% benchmark. Loss further states that Kallas, as an EU external representative, would undoubtedly prioritize Russia. However, this is expected regardless. Kallas delineated this proposal during a conference in Berlin back in March.