This election, the House and Senate have the potential to establish notable milestones.
If such circumstances unfold, it would mark an unprecedented instance in over 230 years of congressional elections, as both chambers of Congress could shift partisan control in opposite directions.
This prospect mainly stems from the contrasting battlegrounds for the closely divided House and Senate.
In the House, all 435 seats are up for grabs. To obtain a majority, Democrats only require a net gain of four seats. They potentially could accomplish this in New York alone, as there were four House races in 2022 won by the GOP by marginally less than 5 points in districts that Joe Biden would have won two years prior under the current district lines. These include Long Island's 4th District, Hudson Valley's 17th and 19th districts, and Central New York's 22nd District, where the results were decided by a narrow margin and the lines have since been redrawn to favor Democrats.
The Senate contest, however, presents a completely different picture.
Due to the fact that only about a third of the chamber's 100 seats are up for election in each cycle, this year several seats held by Democrats or those affiliated with them are up for grabs in Republican-leaning states.
For the Republicans to win the Senate, they necessitate a net pickup of either one seat (if the incoming vice president is a Republican) or two seats (if the incoming vice president is a Democrat).
Republicans appear highly probable to seize at least two seats, backed by the struggling Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in red Montana and the retiring independent Sen. Joe Manchin in very red West Virginia. There's also a clear chance for the Republicans to unseat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio, a state won twice by Donald Trump and likely to repeat this feaature.
The GOP has additional pickup opportunities in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, all states carried by Trump in 2016.
Take note that I've referred to past election results to gauge the competitiveness of the races for the House and Senate. The frequency of straight-ticket voting is now significantly higher than it was previously.
In the past two presidential election years, only once has a state voted for one party in the presidential election and another in the Senate election (Maine in 2020). Compare this to the six states that did so in 2012.
The pattern between presidential and down-ballot voting persists in the House as well. Only 4% of House districts voted opposite to the presidential candidate and their House representative in 2020.
This is crucial to consider when analyzing this year's House elections. A recent Newsday/Siena College poll from Tuesday found Democratic challenger Laura Gillen ahead of the Republican incumbent, Anthony D'Esposito, by 12 points in New York's 4th District. Similarly, Kamala Harris was seen leading district voters by double digits in the same poll.
Regrettably, no district polling for the other three New York seats is currently available, but forecasts suggest Democrats have a solid chance of winning all of them. The 22nd District is strongly Democratic, while the 17th and 19th are toss-up races.
This makes perfect sense when taking into account Siena's New York state poll (also released Tuesday), which shows Democrats leading in the House vote by 5 points statewide. A shift like this in these four districts would see Democrats seize control of all of them.
If Biden had run in these four seats in 2020 under the current lines, he would have won all of them.
One competitive House seat in New York that Biden would not have won is the 1st District on Long Island. Under the new map approved this year, district voters would have supported Trump by 2 points. A recent Newsday/Siena poll from Tuesday placed Harris and Trump in a virtual dead heat in the district. It was therefore reasonable to assume that the same poll showed Republican Rep. Nick LaLota leading Democratic challenger John Avlon by a mere 3 points, well within the margin of error, despite most analysts predicting this race to be leaning or likely Republican.
To sum up, House Democrats have numerous opportunities in New York and other blue states.
California, too, has a total of five Republican-held House seats that are considered toss-ups at the very least for Democrats. Biden would have captured four of these seats in 2020 under the current district lines.
Given these facts, it's not a stretch to imagine a Democratic majority in the House emerging, especially considering the number of districts Biden won in states he carried in total.
That being said, Republicans certainly could retain the House, or some surprising turn of events could transpire in the Senate race.
However, at this juncture, it is not difficult to envision history being made next month – history that would excite and displease both political parties alike.
In the realm of politics, this potential shift in power in Congress could significantly impact future policies and legislation, as both the House and Senate may see changes in partisan control, with the House potentially flipping to a Democratic majority, while the Senate leans towards a Republican gain.
Given the political landscape and the upcoming elections, there's a growing interest in the impact of politics on various aspects of society, including but not limited to, domestic policies, international relations, and social issues.
