Think tank: Armed conflicts increasingly intense and prolonged
According to a recent analysis, armed conflicts are becoming ever more intense and increasingly difficult to resolve. As a result, they are lasting longer, according to the London-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "The trend towards intractability is reflected in the increasing duration of conflicts, which is currently estimated to average around 30 years, compared to less than 20 years in the early 1990s."
The think tank cited the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine as an example. The reconstruction of the country is only possible with security guarantees for Kiev, which are not in sight. "The diplomatic stalemate and the military stalemate in Ukraine point to a potentially protracted conflict." In general, there are significantly more "violent events" worldwide.
One reason for the greater intensity and insolubility is the increasing influence of non-state armed groups, which, against the backdrop of declining state legitimacy, are acting as both conflict parties and political actors. "The trend towards the internationalization of internal conflicts through the increasing involvement of third parties is continuing," the IISS continued.
At the same time, competition between traditional, emerging and revisionist powers is intensifying. The new weight of states such as Russia, China, Iran, the Gulf States and Turkey is exacerbating the retreat of democracy. This is accompanied by a decline in the influence of the West and is driving geopolitical fragmentation in the global South.
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- Despite international efforts to resolve armed conflicts, the average duration of conflicts has significantly increased from less than 20 years in the early 1990s to around 30 years, as suggested by the findings of the think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
- The intense conflicts and their prolonged duration can be seen in situations like the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, where the diplomatic and military stalemate indicates a potentially years-long conflict, according to the IISS.
- The increasing involvement of non-state armed groups in internal conflicts, together with the competition between traditional, emerging, and revisionist powers, is contributing to the average duration of armed conflicts stretching beyond 30 years, as highlighted by the think tank.
Source: www.ntv.de
