"They are most dependent on the United States for the threat of ISIS".
The attack plans on a Taylor Swift concert in Vienna underscore that the threat from IS in Europe is far from over. Especially IS in Afghanistan is increasingly focusing on Western European countries like Germany, explains terrorism and Islamism expert Guido Steinberg in an interview with ntv.de. Therefore, security on large events must also be significantly increased here. "Otherwise, security on such events can no longer be guaranteed," says the expert from the Foundation for Science and Politics. In the long run, there needs to be a complete change in thinking in security policy.
ntv.de: For around 170,000 fans, the cancellation of the three Taylor Swift concerts in Vienna is a huge disappointment, and for the organizer, it means significant financial losses. Nevertheless, due to the terror threat, "there was no other choice," it was stated. How concrete was the threat situation in Vienna?
Guido Steinberg: I find the term "abstract terror threat," which the security authorities use, to be quite downplaying. According to reports, there was already a terrorist cell, the target was set, the means of attack were prepared, and a video was made with an oath of allegiance to IS. These facts suggest that the threat was not just abstract, but very concrete. Therefore, I can understand why the organizer canceled the concerts.
Once again, the focus of Islamist attack plans was on concerts. This brings back memories of the attacks on the Bataclan hall in Paris in 2015, at the Ariana Grande concert in Manchester in 2017, or even recently at a concert in Moscow. What makes concerts so interesting for Islamists?
It's a combination of two factors. On the one hand, concerts are events that are particularly offensive to militant Islamists: half-naked women on stage and many young people celebrating and listening to music. In the world of Islamists, these things are forbidden, they are a symbol of the cultural decadence of the West. On the other hand, a relatively large number of defenseless civilians can be killed or injured at these events. The Islamists have learned from past attacks. They know that they can attract particularly much attention with such attacks, and in their world, that is a particularly great success.
This sounds like Western Europe should expect more attacks or attack plans on large events like concerts.
One thing must be clear: In Germany, the security situation in the area of terrorism has deteriorated significantly in the past ten years. Moreover, we have noticed in the past one to two years that the number of serious, i.e., concrete, terror plots and attacks by lone wolves has increased. And we know that large events like concerts or Christmas markets are preferred targets of Islamists.
What does that mean concretely? Could there be more cancellations like concert cancellations in the future?
Of course, there will still be large events. Nobody will forbid themselves from watching football. However, the governments will have to react to the growing threat, among other things with more personnel and more powers for security forces. This will also be noticeable at large events. The measures that are already high will have to be cranked up even more. Otherwise, security at such events can no longer be guaranteed. Therefore, there were also discussions about the terror threat and security measures before the European Football Championship here and before the Olympics in France.
Indeed, the "Islamic State" has called on its supporters in this country to carry out attacks ahead of the European Championship. The security authorities were alerted and classified the threat of attacks as high. Nevertheless, unlike in Vienna, none of the matches were cancelled.
The key difference is that we are now dealing with a cell of attackers: At least three young people who have clearly indicated that they are very advanced in their planning of attacks. A young man has recorded a video in which he pledges allegiance. Unlike in Vienna, the danger at the EM was abstract. This is also the case - at least so far - at the Olympics in Paris. However, there is no difference in the threat posed by the IS organization itself. In fact, the IS in Afghanistan has become stronger in recent years and its focus on Germany and Europe has increased.
This was also recently emphasized by the head of the Federal Criminal Police Office, Thomas Haldenwang. According to him, the terrorist threat from Islamists in this country is significantly higher than in previous years. Where does this development come from?
With the strengthening of the IS in Afghanistan, it is also trying to carry out more attacks internationally. In addition, there are significantly more people here who are thinking about or even ready to carry out attacks for the organization. A certain social profile has emerged: Many of the potential attackers are Russian-speaking, often from Central Asia or the Caucasus. This applies, for example, to the planned terrorist attack on the Cologne Cathedral and the St. Stephen's Cathedral in Vienna, where the potential attackers were Tajiks. Especially in this social profile, it is mainly an imported phenomenon, many of these people came to Germany and Austria with the refugee flow in 2014 to 2016 and again in 2022. They partly come from countries affected by civil wars, where many militant Islamists have been or still are active.
The 19-year-old Islamist who planned the attack on the Taylor Swift concert had North Macedonian roots.
Similarly, the Islamist attacker who killed four people and injured others in the Vienna city center in November 2020 also had North Macedonian roots. In fact, this social profile is becoming increasingly common in the Islamist scene - also in Germany. Therefore, we must also pay close attention to what is happening in Austria right now. However, this phenomenon is not entirely easy to explain. Unlike the Islamists from Central Asia and the Caucasus described above, many ethnic Albanians are often born here and become terrorists at a particularly young age.
How can the growing threat from IS be contained and the restrictions on society kept as small as possible?
The federal government and the states are starting to slowly react to the changed security situation. However, we are only at the beginning of a process in which many things will have to be changed. There is, however, a particularly large and urgent problem: We are maximally dependent on the USA in the case of the IS threat. The best example is the current case from Vienna. The security authorities said that the first hint of the potential attacker came from abroad. This is a code for: The USA informed us. This phenomenon also applies to Germany. First information about attack plans almost always comes from the USA, sometimes from Britain and occasionally from Israel. Germany and Europe as a whole should urgently consider whether they do not want to develop such capabilities themselves.
Why?
For two reasons. Firstly, this American support is not a law of nature. There might one day be a government in the USA that is less transatlantic in its mindset and reduces or ties this aid to conditions. Secondly, there was already a phase in which the USA had difficulties monitoring IS communication. That was from 2014 to 2016. The result was a catastrophic wave of attacks, initially in Belgium and France with the attacks, and ultimately also here in Germany in 2016 on the Christmas market in Berlin. Germany should therefore consider developing its own competencies in this area and expanding the competencies of the authorities, for example, to make a significantly expanded communication surveillance possible. However, one should not be deceived: This is very expensive, very challenging, and would require a cultural shift in German security policy.
Sarah Platz spoke with Guido Steinberg
The Islamists in Afghanistan are increasingly focusing on Western European countries like Germany, potentially posing a concrete threat to large events. This was underscored by the cancellation of Taylor Swift's concerts in Vienna due to an alleged terrorist cell with a target, prepared means of attack, and an oath of allegiance to IS.
The concentration of Islamist attack plans on concerts can be attributed to their offense to militant Islamists, who view half-naked women on stage and young people celebrating as symbols of cultural decadence, and the potential for a large number of defenseless civilians to be targeted.
