The weapon that no one can do without

At the front, battles rage on, but Russian air raids on power plants are equally dangerous for Ukraine. With more Patriot systems, Kiev could defend itself better. However, these are also rare and relevant in other countries.

Where is it, 500 meters forward or 200 meters back? The situation on the battlefield, when looking at the Ukrainian conflict, is usually in focus. What goes unnoticed: the many Russian air raids with devastating consequences, especially on the supply system. Eight heavy attacks alone in June. "Unlike in winter 22/23, when the Russians mainly targeted transformer stations and power generation, it's going very specifically against water and heating power plants now," says military expert Markus Reisner. He fears irreparable damage to the system, which could worsen in the coming winter due to the weather.

Russian President Vladimir Putin can achieve multiple goals with this: destroyed infrastructure takes away the production basis from the Ukrainian industry, including the arms industry, which is crucial for the drone resupply. Destroyed infrastructure - no electricity, no heat, no water - takes away the livelihood from the population. "At least in the coming winter, the pressure could be so great that many Ukrainians would have to flee," says Reisner. "In my estimation, the Russians want to trigger a refugee wave." Hybrid warfare, a Russian specialty.

What could help most against the dangers from the air is unfortunately the least available: widespread air defense. Soviet-era systems, with which the Ukrainians effectively protected themselves in the first months of the war, are often lacking ammunition or no longer functional. However, the supply with western air defense weapons is running even slower than it was with tanks. The reason for this is simple: The West has been holding back.

"Germany is one of the strongest countries in Europe in terms of its air defense capabilities," says NATO expert Rafael Loss from the European Council on Foreign Relations. And what initially seems like a mere statement, in light of the past, makes sense: During the Cold War, the Iron Curtain ran along the inner German border. The air defense for Central Europe was based to a large extent on German material and troops. "West Germany was the most heavily fortified airspace of the NATO in those years," says Loss. In numerical terms: The Bundeswehr had 36 Patriot batteries in stock in 1990.

In 2022, 12 of these were still available. Two of these 12 systems have already been given to Ukraine, and number 3 is expected to follow soon. In European comparison, Germany itself, with the depleted stock, is still quite capable. However, even according to the statement of the American think tank CSIS, 18 countries use Patriot for their air defense: Measured against the new threat situation, the gaps in the individual stocks of the NATO partners are large.

Orders will help in five years.

And so, the "Skills Coalition Air Defense" was established at the beginning of 2024 in Germany, with Germany and France leading the way in building Ukrainian air defense capabilities, receiving much recognition from all sides but little feedback from partner states as to what one could contribute to this. In April, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and Defense Minister Boris Pistorius initiated the IAAD-Initiative: Immediate Action on Air Defense.

Immediate - that's the key point. Orders, such as the eight new Patriot systems that Pistorius is currently placing with the US manufacturer Raytheon, will help in five years. Not next winter. This realization seems to be taking hold in other countries as well. "Behind the scenes, talks are taking place between Germany and the Netherlands," says Loss. "Many countries have reached their capacity limits, so it's now about extracting individual components." A starting device from you, a radar from us, someone can still do without a fire control unit - that's how Europeans are currently assembling Patriot systems for Kiev. And the USA? Isn't the manufacturer even there?

Approximately 80 systems are estimated to be in the US Patriot arsenal, which looks like pure luxury compared to the cornucopia of Europeans. However, it's not just on the surface. The expert breaks down the US inventory as follows: About one third of the US weapons stock is in maintenance or repair. At least another third of the US Patriots is abroad: Two batteries protect logistical hubs for Ukraine aid in Poland. In Japan and South Korea, the USA is also present with Patriots. In the Middle East, they protect US forces on site in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Qatar, Iraq.

"Since the Hamas massacre on October 7, 2022, attacks on US bases in the region have increased again," says Loss. "Systems were therefore deployed there." Roughly speaking, the last third remains in the USA, to react if the situation in the Middle East escalates further, if it becomes critical in the Western Pacific, or if it deteriorates in Europe.

However, a certain margin of weapons stock is ultimately present, and Washington is now extracting another system from it. Fundamentally, however, Patriot and all states working with it are too important, too powerful, to risk a shortage for their own defense.

Furthermore, the system cannot protect itself against drones. Once the Patriot radar is activated to detect enemy targets, the system is also recognizable to the enemy. In March, the Ukraine, according to western experts' assessment, lost two Patriot launchers. The Russians had identified the launchers and then attacked them with an Iskander missile.

"In the system of combined arms, the Patriot system must be protected itself, the Ukrainians treat it like the king in chess," says Loss. "Other systems like the German Iris-T-SLM or Norwegian Nasams are deployed to protect it."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is asking his supporters for seven more systems. This number falls far short of what is needed to protect the entire country, so the sky over Ukraine remains open. It is already evident that only European and US stocks will not provide seven systems.

Since Thursday, a new option seems to be emerging: Israel is reportedly planning to replace its eight Patriot batteries with more modern systems. The Financial Times (FT) reports of talks between Washington, Kiev, and Jerusalem. The US would like to buy the eight systems and give them to the Ukrainians.

Kiev is improvising with four devices

However, Israel is a difficult negotiating partner in this matter: With a second front against Hezbollah in the north, the Israeli government is not eager to give up air defense weapons. At least not while the regional security situation remains tense. Previously, support for Kiev had been rather reluctant to avoid provoking the Kremlin.

Before anything is finalized in Israel, it may still require some negotiations, and the deal may not even come to fruition in the end. The Ukrainians, meanwhile, are practicing improvisation in air defense. While the current systems are primarily used to protect Kiev, they are occasionally moved closer to the front to engage aircraft such as jet fighters.

"The Ukrainians are clever in that they bring the launchers much closer to the front than the radars," says Loss. With this tactic, the army has achieved some successful interceptions. In addition to destroyed fighter jets, the Ukrainian military reported two shot-down AWACS aircraft this year, valuable "flying command centers" that detect, track, and coordinate enemy targets.

According to military analysts, the Israeli Patriots, while older, are equipped with high range, a large combat head, and a large amount of ammunition - exactly what Ukraine needs. Specifically, the Russian stockpile of glide bombs is still highly valued by analysts. It is neither feasible nor sensible to intercept each individual bomb. Instead, it is smarter to shoot down the fighter jets that drop the bombs and launch cruise missiles to disrupt Ukraine's power and heating. Patriot is capable of this. And there is hope for a new supplier.

The debate on arms deliveries, including the Patriot air defense system, has become a significant topic in politics, with Volodymyr Selensky, the Ukrainian President, urgently requesting seven more systems from potential suppliers.
The USA, with an estimated 80 Patriot systems in its arsenal, is a potential source for additional systems, but the system's importance for its own defense makes any significant transfer unlikely.
Israel, with eight Patriot batteries, could potentially contribute to Ukraine's air defense capabilities, as reported by The Financial Times, although negotiations and regional security considerations may pose challenges.
As they wait for additional Patriot systems, Ukraine is improvising with the current devices, strategically positioning launchers closer to the front to engage and successfully intercept enemy aircraft, including jet fighters and AWACS aircraft.