The United States perceives Iran as being significantly anxious, as it anticipates Israel's retaliation following missile strikes.
Iran's unease arises from doubts about whether the US can persuade Israel to hold back from striking Iranian nuclear sites and oil facilities, and the fact that its main regional ally and proxy, Hezbollah, has suffered significant blows in recent Israeli military operations. Sources revealed this information.
The US has been engaging with Israel on how to counter Iran's October 1 attack, and US officials have made it clear that they do not want Israel to target Iran's nuclear sites or oil fields. On Wednesday, US President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the first time in almost two months, advising Israel to retaliate proportionately.
The US' Gulf allies, including the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, have shown concern to the US about a potential assault on Iranian oil facilities, which could cause economic and environmental harm to the entire region. An Arab diplomat informed CNN of this.
The Biden administration worries that the ongoing back-and-forth hostilities between Iran and Israel, which started earlier this year following Israel's strike on what Iran claimed was its consulate in Damascus, might escalate into a major regional conflict that could pull the US in.
A significant portion of the concerns revolves around the perception that US influence over Israel is deteriorating over the past year. Similar to its operations in Gaza, Israel has ignored earlier US calls for diminished intensity in Lebanon, where Israel's intensive aerial campaign and ground offensive have resulted in the death of over 1,400 people since late last month.
Israel did not consult with the US before conducting a significant attack that destroyed thousands of pagers and walkie-talkies used by Hezbollah operatives last month, nor before assassinating Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and disrupting a truce proposal put forth by the US and France less than 48 hours earlier.
Israel's security council has yet to reach a decision on its future course of action, an Israeli official informed CNN on Friday. Meanwhile, the gap between the US and Israeli views is narrowing, but it may not remain that way, according to a US official.
"We can't actually know if they voted or not," a senior administration official expressed skepticism, questioning the transparency of Israel's discussions with the US. The official suggested that the US cannot "place too much faith in their machinations."
As of last week, Israel had not provided any assurances that it would not strike Iran's nuclear facilities, CNN reported.
For decades, Israel has planned attacks on Iran's nuclear capabilities. Just two years ago, Israel simulated the strike in a military exercise. Additionally, Israel has been suspected of carrying out assassinations against Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and Iran's nuclear facilities have been under siege from cyberattacks, believed to be from Israel—the most notable being the Stuxnet virus, which infiltrated Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.
‘Our strike will be powerful'
Israel's Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued a stark warning to Iran about Israel's response on Wednesday.
"Our strike will be powerful, accurate, and above all – unexpected. They will not comprehend what happened or how it happened," Gallant said.
The Gulf states are generally content to avoid involvement in the conflict, the Arab diplomat explained. While Iran has publicly warned that any entities perceived to be aiding Israel will be considered aggressors, it is also unlikely that Iran's neighbors would actively come to Tehran's defense should Israel launch an attack.
However, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have informed both the US and Iran that they will not permit Israel to use their airspace to strike Iran, the Arab diplomat and another source informed CNN. Jordan will also secure its airspace from any unauthorized intrusion, regardless of the origin, a Jordanian official stated.
The US does not believe that Iran seeks to engage in a full-scale war with Israel, and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera this week that Netanyahu "is the only one who desires war and to set the region ablaze to maintain his power."
Nevertheless, the US has still advised Tehran, through backchannels, to adjust its response if Israel attacks, an official stated.
While Qatar frequently speaks to the Iranians and reports back to the US, the US official acknowledged that "ultimately, we just do not know what they will do." Various voices within Iran will have differing ideas about whether and how to respond to Israel, but that will depend on the magnitude and scope of the anticipated Israeli move, another US official stated.
This official stated that Iran's messaging has remained consistent both publicly and privately since Iran launched its barrage of missiles at Israel earlier this month, and there has not been a significant shift in messaging.
Iran has shown keen interest in securing Saudi Arabia's assistance in preventing an Israeli attack and utilizing its influence with Washington to help resolve the crisis, the Arab diplomat informed CNN.
Officials from both countries have met three times in less than a month, and Araghchi traveled to Saudi Arabia on Wednesday to "discuss regional developments" and "attempt to halt the Zionist regime's crimes in Lebanon and Gaza," he told local media.
The world is monitoring Israel's every move as it deliberates its response, but at least until Saturday at sundown, Israel will be halted to observe Yom Kippur, the Jewish Day of Atonement and the holiest day of the year in Judaism. And despite it not being impossible that Israel might take action, shops, restaurants, and other services will be closed, public transport will not be operating, and even the country's main airport—the Ben Gurion in Tel Aviv—will be shut down.
CNN's Kayla Tausche, Dania Karni, and Katie Bo Lillis contributed reporting.
The ongoing tension between Iran and Israel, fueled by political disputes, has led to concerns about a potential escalation into a larger regional conflict. US officials are actively working to prevent Israel from targeting Iran's nuclear sites or oil fields, recognizing the potential economic and environmental harm such actions could cause.
