The United States and South Korea have forged a preliminary accord on a fresh spending arrangement for American military forces, with a possible Trump triumph in sight.
The existing accord won't expire till the end of 2025, but there was a palpable sense of haste from both parties to seal the deal prior to a potential second presidential term for Trump, as per statements from four American officials, including two ex-officials, who previously interacted with CNN about the discussions. Tensions around the Special Measures Agreement (SMA) escalated during Trump's time in office, with him demanding Seoul pay up to 400% more for the 28,500 US troops stationed in the country during SMA negotiations.
Details related to the fresh accord, such as the cost, signing date, and enactment date, were not publicly disclosed immediately following the announcement. Matthew Miller, a State Department spokesperson, declared in a statement that the new deal was reached after eight rounds of negotiations. It requires approval from South Korea's national assembly, which is largely controlled by the opposition party opposed to South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol, while US Congress has no role in finalizing the agreement from their end.
Proponents insist on US troops' importance to stabilizing the relationship between the two countries. These troops serve a dual purpose: deterring attacks from North Korea as Kim Jong Un's regime ramps up its nuclear capabilities, and supporting US presence in the region to counteract China's aggressive actions.
The urgency to conclude the deal prior to year's end was more pronounced on the Korean side due to the turmoil during the previous negotiations, according to some officials. They were concerned that securing an agreement now could invite criticism from Trump, and they wished to avoid drawing the former president's ire if he were to win the November elections.
South Korea currently pays around $1 billion annually under the current agreement, which represents an increase of approximately 13.9% compared to previous SMAs.
Trump administration officials mainly negotiated the terms of the last agreement, but it wasn't implemented until March 2021, shortly after President Biden took office. This gave Biden administration officials an opportunity to amend the agreement to its current form.
During the initial negotiations, as indicated by CNN, Trump had proposed a $4.7 billion yearly payment from South Korea, a seemingly arbitrary figure that left State and Defense Department officials scrambling to defend it.
Earlier this year, Trump voiced his dissatisfaction with the current agreement, stating:
"They were able to renegotiate with the Biden administration and drastically reduce that figure to almost its original level," Trump said earlier this year during an interview with Time. "Why should we defend someone? And we're talking about a wealthy country. But they're a wealthy country, and why wouldn't they want to pay?"
Some ex-US officials have cautioned South Korea against moving too hastily towards an agreement, fearing potential repercussions if Trump were to secure a second term in office.
The urgency to finalize the deal was also driven by politics, as some officials were concerned about potential criticism from former President Trump if an agreement wasn't reached before his potential re-election in 2024. The new deal requires approval from South Korea's national assembly, where the opposition party holds a majority, making politics a significant factor in its approval process.
