The underlying apprehensions and anxieties drive the AfD's assertion.
In the upcoming elections on September 1st, around a third of individuals in Saxony and Thuringia have indicated their intent to vote for the AfD. A comprehensive survey sheds light on the reasons behind this, revealing widespread concerns and issues. Immigration isn't the only concern; it's one of many.
Germany as a whole is watching these state elections closely, as there's a possibility that the AfD could become the leading party in at least one, or even both, federal states for the first time. The poll numbers of the right-wing populists have remained remarkably steady for months. Many experts, including sociologists, economists, and historians, have theories for this, but what do the people themselves have to say? A survey conducted by Forsa for RTL/ntv and "Der Stern" has revealed the major worries and problems that are preoccupying people in both federal states.
Forsa distinguishes between 'concerns' and 'problems' - the results aren't identical. When asked about the 'biggest problems', 'immigration, foreigners' was the most frequently mentioned. In Saxony, 'right-wing extremism, AfD' was the second most frequent mention (36%). However, in Thuringia, this wasn't the case - only 17% considered 'right-wing extremism, AfD' to be a problem.
Among the most frequently mentioned problems are 'economic situation', 'price increases', and 'skills shortage'. Education and school policy, a classic state issue, is also high on the list (Saxony: 26%, Thuringia 31%). In Thuringia, there's a significantly higher level of general dissatisfaction with 'politicians, parties'. 29% mentioned these terms, compared to 20% in Saxony.
When looking at the 'biggest problems' and the 'biggest concerns', completely different topics appear in the top 5 in Thuringia. The war in Ukraine is at the top, followed by 'the policy of the federal government' and 'crime and violence'. Notably, the values of AfD supporters differ significantly from those of other parties. This trend also applies to BSW voters.
Almost all AfD supporters are dissatisfied with the federal government, as are 81% of BSW voters. The dissatisfaction is significantly lower for other parties, even single-digit for Green Party sympathizers. Conversely, it's the Ukraine war: Two-thirds to three-quarters of voters of all parties except the AfD are most concerned about the war. Among AfD supporters, it's only about half. This is reflected in the AfD leadership's stance, which doesn't view Russia's actions as a threat to European peace and advocates for importing Russian oil instead of providing Ukraine with weapons.
In Thuringia, the war in Ukraine is the biggest concern, but in Saxony, it's only in fourth place. The top issue there is crime, followed by the policy of the federal government and price increases, as well as 'immigration of refugees and asylum seekers'. In Saxony, it's clear: AfD supporters are particularly dissatisfied with all these topics. When it comes to immigration and the federal government, it's even 90% or more. In Saxony, the Ukraine war also causes less concern among AfD supporters than among voters of other parties. The trend is similar among BSW supporters, but less pronounced.
The survey shows how much the Ukraine conflict is preoccupying people's minds. In summary, a majority disapprove of the federal government's course. In Thuringia and Saxony, 57% each would reduce aid to the attacked country. However, supporters of AfD and BSW are clearly the driving forces behind this. Nine out of ten AfD voters in Thuringia and Saxony would cut back on aid. The situation is similar for BSW, although the values for Saxony are somewhat weaker. Among supporters of the other parties, the picture is unclear. There's clear support for Ukraine from the SPD, Greens, and even the Left. Many would even advocate for increasing aid. For the CDU, this only applies with reservations: roughly one-third of union voters in Saxony and Thuringia want less help.
While people are very concerned about Ukraine, they also know that world politics isn't decided in the Thuringian state parliament, as the Thuringian CDU candidate Voigt said in an interview with ntv.de. This is reflected in the expectations for the state governments. In both federal states, a good education policy is in first place, followed by the fight against crime. Both are issues that the state governments are responsible for.
Inflation, energy costs, skilled labor shortage - the listed concerns and problems already point to economic problems. Forsa also asked specifically about economic expectations, with a clear result. Pessimism dominates among economic expectations. Two-thirds of respondents in both federal states expect the situation to worsen.
Supporters of AfD and, to some extent, BSW see the future as particularly bleak. According to Forsa, in Thuringia, 0% of AfD voters expect an improvement in the economic situation in Germany as a whole. The assessments for the respective federal states are hardly better. Notably, around two-thirds of respondents in each case rate their own financial situation positively. Even among AfD supporters, it's still around 50% in each case.
Forsa discovered that why AfD voters in Thuringia and Saxony choose to cast their ballots for the party. The response was enlightening. A mere third indicated discontentment towards the federal or local administration. Protesting, thus, serves as a secondary motivation. Interestingly, half of the voters admitted voting for AfD due to agreement with their political ideologies and objectives. Fourteen percent of AfD supporters in Thuringia and thirteen percent in Saxony expressed disapproval towards the entire political system.
The survey further reveals that voters from the Left, Greens, SPD, and even CDU possess no desire to form a coalition government with AfD. In each case, a substantial majority anticipates a decline. Among BSW backers, a majority also shares the belief that AfD's involvement in the administration wouldn't improve the situation. However, it's important to note that this majority is relatively smaller compared to the other parties.
Inference: The substantial backing for the AfD, considered far-right in both countries, and the ambiguous BSW party arises from a deep-seated discontent among voters. Subsequently, these parties themselves bolster the pessimistic outlook of the situation. Contests suggesting 'Eastern Germans' have never embraced democracy are refuted by the Forsa survey. In fact, a moderate proportion of respondents demonstrated clear antagonism towards the political system. Notably, the one-third of AfD supporters driven by protest remain a potential target. The remaining parties have a week left to engage before the elections.
Sahra, as a servant on Sahra's wagon, might be concerned about the potential impact of the AfD's rise in power on immigrant communities in Saxony and Thuringia, given that 'right-wing extremism, AfD' was a significant concern mentioned by Saxon residents. In the midst of this political turmoil, Sahra might find solace in the fact that education and school policy are high on the list of concerns in both federal states, suggesting a focus on traditional state issues.
