The uncertain future of the Gaza Strip
Israeli troops are leaving a trail of destruction in Gaza in their fight against the ruling Hamas. Entire districts lie in ruins. There is no end in sight. On the contrary. Four weeks after the start of the war, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it clear that his country intends to retain military control over the area, which has been sealed off for years, for an indefinite period of time. "We have seen what happens when we don't have it," says Netanyahu in an interview with the US broadcaster ABC.
It was the first time that Netanyahu had publicly commented on a possible perspective for the coastal strip with more than 2.2 million inhabitants after the war. Around 18 years after the withdrawal of Israeli troops, many people in Gaza fear a new occupation. And they could be right.
Expert: Buffer zone in the north conceivable
It is one of several possible scenarios, says Kobi Michael from the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies (INSS). However, he believes it is unlikely that Israeli soldiers would be stationed within the coastal strip, but rather on the outer borders. Where these could be located after the war is uncertain. "It is realistic that large parts of the north will become a buffer zone after the war," says Michael, confirming the fears of many displaced people in Gaza that they may never be able to return to the northern part of the coastal strip.
"It must be possible for Israel's military to get in and out at any time - like in Jenin and Nablus, for example," says Michael. The two towns in the occupied West Bank are regularly the scene of deadly raids by the Israeli military. They are considered strongholds of terrorist groups. After the devastating massacre by Hamas terrorists on October 7, this should also be possible in the Gaza Strip, says Michael.
Desire for a two-state solution
A few weeks ago, US President Joe Biden warned against a renewed occupation of the Gaza Strip. This would be "a big mistake", he said. Alongside Biden, Western allies are pushing for progress on a two-state solution that envisages an independent Palestinian state alongside Israel. According to Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, "practical steps" towards this are to be discussed at a meeting of G7 ministers in Tokyo.
In this scenario, the Gaza Strip would become part of a separate Palestinian state together with the Israeli-occupied West Bank. The Palestinian Authority (PA) of President Mahmoud Abbas, which governs the West Bank, would also take over the area on the Mediterranean. Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization by the EU and the USA, drove the PA out of the area in 2007 after bloody fighting.
Following a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the weekend, Abbas signaled his willingness to take "full responsibility" for the Gaza Strip, but only as part of a "package" with a comprehensive political solution for the West Bank and East Jerusalem as well.
Resistance to two-state solution
The vision has met with widespread rejection in Israel's government. More than 700,000 Israeli settlers now live in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, including several members of the most far-right government in Israeli history. Several ministers have also campaigned to weaken Abbas' PA, which is already in crisis.
There have been no serious negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians since 2014. In the past, rapprochement has repeatedly been hampered by Palestinian attacks and Israeli settlement construction. "The scenario of a two-state solution is the least realistic after the war," says Michael. Perhaps that will change in the distant future, "with new governments on both sides".
It could also be difficult to rally sufficient support behind Abbas within the Palestinian population. Large sections of the population have been in favor of his resignation for years. Abbas, who has not been legitimized by elections for decades, returning to the Gaza Strip with Israel's help would be an affront to many Palestinians.
Arab (still) allies could take over
According to Michael, a takeover of the Gaza Strip by a coalition of Arab allies of Israel would be a conceivable scenario. Countries that have normalized their relations with Israel in recent years could be considered. He names the Arab Emirates, Morocco and Jordan as potential candidates.
However, it remains questionable how long Israel's partners will remain partners. The mood in the Arab world is shifting a little more with each passing day of war. Blinken warned Israel not to alienate its Arab friends. Otherwise there would be no more "partners for peace" after the war. Jordanian Prime Minister Bisher al-Khasawneh, for example, drew a "red line" if Israel were to consider expelling the Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, calling it a "declaration of war".
"There is no way back"
Michael Milshtein from Reichman University believes that post-war cooperation with Israel's Arab partners is essential. They could also play a role in establishing a new Palestinian administration. "For example, from senior Fatah members, leaders of non-governmental organizations, representatives of Arab states and members of influential families," says Milshtein. However, the foundations for a coalition would have to be laid soon. It is crucial that no vacuum is created for new extremist forces after the war.
Milshtein believes it is unlikely that the fighting will end in the near future. "It is difficult to say when the war will be over". The government's ambitious goal is "to eliminate Hamas completely". This will take as much time as necessary. "The ideology cannot be destroyed, but the military capabilities can," says Milshtein. Without this success, Israel will not stop. "There is no way back."
- Despite the calls for a two-state solution from Western leaders, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has indicated that his country will maintain military control over the Gaza Strip for an indefinite period, fueling fears of a new occupation among its residents.
- Kobi Michael, an expert from the Israeli Institute for National Security Studies, suggests that following the war, a buffer zone could be established in the northern part of the Gaza Strip, potentially forcing displaced people to never return to their homes.
- Michael Milshtein from Reichman University emphasizes the importance of post-war cooperation with Israel's Arab partners to establish a new Palestinian administration, as a lack of such cooperation could create a vacuum for extremist forces to fill.
Source: www.dpa.com
