The U.S. election is additionally determining the boundary situation with Mexico.
Vice President Harris is leading in national polls by a thin margin over her rival Trump, yet she lags behind him on the pressing issue of immigration. The issue at hand is an antiquated immigration system, unchanged since the 1990s.
On October 11th, Trump, former U.S. President, took to the microblogging platform "X" and posted an all-caps tweet: "America is under siege - halt the incursion, free America." Beneath it was an ad from his presidential campaign. The ad predominantly focused on illegal immigrants, who, as per the campaign team, had committed a series of offenses. The tweet has been viewed almost 70 million times.
On the same day, October 11th, "The New York Times" published an article about Haitians residing in Springfield, Ohio. Trump had circulated a conspiracy theory, notably in the TV debate against his opponent Kamala Harris, which alleged that Haitian migrants stole and consumed pets such as dogs and cats. According to "The New York Times", Haitians in Springfield have since been victims of hate and intimidation, including from far-right groups. The article sheds light on the harmful repercussions of unverified claims against minorities.
Bipartisan Controversy
Migration is a significant topic in this U.S. election. In a survey conducted by the think tank Pew Research Center, 61% of respondents stated that migration was "very important" to their voting decision. While other topics, such as the economy with 81%, garnered attention, few topics sparked such emotion as the dispute over the U.S.-Mexico border.
Under President Joe Biden, the number of apprehended illegal border crossings has experienced a significant rise. In December 2023 alone, there were almost 250,000, and over 2.5 million for the entire year. Biden then tightened border controls through an executive order, and the numbers subsequently decreased.
However, governing by executive orders is only partially effective and scarcely sustainable in the long run. Kathleen Bush-Joseph, a migration expert at the Migration Policy Institute in Washington D.C., opines, "Parliament has not substantially amended U.S. migration laws for decades. We possess an extremely outdated and inflexible system that fails to cope with the challenges of the 21st century."
Trump Advocates for Deportations
Bush-Joseph also stressed the massive backlog. "There are 3.7 million pending deportation cases and barely over 700 immigration judges to hear all of these cases," she remarks. Approximately 1.3 million decisions in asylum cases are still pending, with some individuals waiting up to ten years for a hearing date in their proceedings.
The Republican Party, led by Trump, has hindered these crucial modifications to the immigration system. Meanwhile, the party and their presidential candidate consistently criticize migrants. Trump has nicknamed them "criminals and rapists" who "taint the essence" of the U.S., and promises to deport millions of migrants already in the country.
In the presidential race, Trump currently trails by a narrow margin. However, a poll conducted by "The Washington Post" and ABC News revealed that 10% more voters trust Trump to address the migration issue than Kamala Harris. This should raise concerns for the Harris campaign.
The Country Requires Labor
The harmful climate and the debates about deportations and border wall constructions divert attention away from the fact that the aging nation USA urgently needs young laborers for its workforce. Scapegoating migrants and minorities is a popular strategy for populists to appeal to their constituency, according to Christi Smith, professor at the Institute for International Migration at Georgetown University.
"The truth is, we have a labor shortage in the country, and an increasing number of refugees and migrants are eager to settle in exactly those areas facing population decline," explains Smith. This labor demand is also the reason for the increased presence of Haitians in Springfield, Ohio.
Smith advocates for more opportunities for migrants to legally enter the USA. A path that Harris is likely to pursue if she becomes president. Simultaneously, Harris would likely place a strong emphasis on maintaining a stringent border regime. If the Republicans continue to obstruct legislative processes in Congress, Harris would have no other choice but to govern by decree.
An agreement between the outgoing U.S. President Biden and Mexico could be beneficial. Mexico has pledged to intercept migrants from Central America before they reach the U.S. border, and then send them back south by bus. "This collaboration with Mexico has significantly reduced the number of arrivals considerably since January," says Bush-Joseph from the Migration Policy Institute.
The perception of illegal migration as the supposedly most pressing problem of the USA has remained largely unchanged with the decreasing pressure on the southern border. Harris, who is frequently criticized for being enigmatic in her statements and plans, must therefore tread carefully to ensure the issue of migration does not slip away before the election. Since 80% of potential voters for Harris expect, according to a Pew Research Center survey, that the security at the USA's borders should be improved.
In response to Trump's escalated rhetoric towards illegal immigrants and his call for deportations, Vice President Harris might need to address this issue more explicitly in her campaign to regain the trust of voters who lean towards Trump on immigration matters. The backlog of deportation cases and asylum hearings, with nearly 3.7 million pending cases and over 700 immigration judges, underscores the need for reform in the outdated immigration system.
