The thing that should never happen to Lindner again
Everyone in the bank says: Loosen the debt brake. The FDP is starting to look more and more like an outsider. Or put differently: Like a small Gallic village that is still resisting among the debt-friendly neighbors. A magic potion is not yet in sight.
When you listen to FDP leader Christian Lindner, he always sounds optimistic. For the federal election, that is in November 2025, he is fighting for a double-digit result for his party, he recently told the "Neue Osnabrücker Zeitung". At another place, he argued that in surveys at the midpoint of the last legislative period, the FDP was also below par - and in the end, they had 11.4 percent. That alone can make for hope, but it's not enough for a self-confident forecast. After all, CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet laughed himself out of the race and made the Free Democrats appear as a viable alternative.
Will another such gift from heaven fall? One can hope, but one cannot rely on it. For now, the FDP is on its own. It is also fighting against an old image: Being a swing party. The party has been pursuing this for decades. Critics and jokers were confirmed in the last black-yellow coalition at the federal level. With much bluster, the party led by Guido Westerwelle went into the campaign with the demand for a major tax reform. CDU Chancellor Angela Merkel simply held back the Liberals then. It happened: nothing.
For Christian Lindner, that was a turning point. In his book "Schattenjahre", he describes the situation as follows: "In fact, the CDU had pushed us off course, our central election promise was dismantled." And to be self-critical: "We didn't fight back. I myself, as General Secretary, remained silent, I admit it. I swore to myself: That will never happen to me again." For Lindner, the voters remembered for years that their own agenda was changed, but not why and whether it was a good reason.
In the end, the disaster
These sentences could explain why the FDP is holding on so fiercely to the debt brake today. Since the coalition with the CDU and CSU followed, it was the greatest disaster for the FDP - they were kicked out of the Bundestag. The Union, on the other hand, achieved a fabulous result of 41.7 percent.
Of course, Lindner and the FDP are convinced of the rationality of the debt brake today. Their arguments are understandable: If we make too many debts now, we are limiting our action options in the future. Interest rates will crush us sometime. It also has something to do with generational justice. Should we leave a huge debt mountain to the next generation? That's not an outsider opinion in itself. In many parts of the CDU, one sees it similarly. General Secretary Carsten Linnemann argues in principle the same way.
Moreover, the FDP's mistrust of the SPD and Greens is probably not entirely unfounded. For them, it's just the simple way out: Just make more debts, as we've heard it again and again. At the beginning of the week, under the headline "Debt populism" from General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai.
## How it's Only One Side of the Coin
If Lindner is correct in what he wrote in his book - "That will never happen to me again" - then such arguments are ultimately irrelevant for the FDP. In essence, the debt brake is like a lifeboat, in which the party sails through a stormy ocean. Even if they give it up, there won't be much left of their own convictions. They have not prevented the nuclear exit. The same goes for the Heating Law, despite their representatives' brave claims that they find the current result good. In the case of the Citizen's Money, which they now reject, they were also involved in the negotiations and signed it.
This led to the accusation that the party ultimately enables left-wing politics. This came from within their own ranks and led to a member decision over the party's continued presence in the Traffic Light Coalition before Christmas. The FDP leadership took it quite calmly on the outside. Conducted an online decision. Avoided major discussions. Came out with a majority in each traffic light. However, this was a warning shot. Shortly thereafter, Lindner fully focused on the core theme of the FDP: Economic relief and tax cuts. He gave the impression that the fulfillment of his demands was a condition for the continuation of the coalition. So he said, it was "unimaginable" that nothing would happen or the abolition of the Cold Progression was a "conditio sine qua non," a condition that must be met unconditionally.
At the moment, it seems to be the FDP's strategy to rather go under with flying flags than to make a compromise. One could ask if they are still coalition material - because compromises are part of the nature of things. With an agreement in the budget negotiations, the FDP can refute such assessments. However, for the continuation of the Traffic Light Coalition, it would ultimately only be the minimum requirement. It would have created something like "postponement with review." The coalition needs new momentum. Since the Federal Constitutional Court turned the money tap in the fall of 2023, it must demonstrate that it can find a common line under the new conditions. Beyond that: Everyone gets everything.
In his book, Lindner writes about the failed tax reform 2010: "The curtain had essentially fallen for the coalition - only that the performers still played on the stage for three more years, while the audience was already long disillusioned and looking for the exits." Meant was Black-Yellow. Is it different this time? If so, it will make a difference: The FDP will not fall this time.
In light of the FDP's history with coalition partners, particularly the 2010 black-yellow coalition, Christian Lindner has made it clear that maintaining the debt brake is a non-negotiable condition for the party's continued participation in the Traffic Light Coalition. This stance is driven by the party's desire to avoid enabling "debt populism" and potentially losing its core convictions.
Despite being a minority voice in the current coalition, the FDP remains firm on its stance towards debt, drawing from the lessons learned from its past experiences. This positioning has also been reflected in Lindner's book, where he vowed never to allow a repeat of the events that occurred during the black-yellow coalition.
