The SPD and Greens concede, while FDP and BSW maintain a slight edge.
There's a shift in the latest RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, negatively impacting the Greens and SPD, while boosting the FDP and BSW. With a minor change, the figures stay within the acceptable variance margin. The CDU and CSU continue to dominate with a consistent 31% approval rating, while the AfD also remains stationary at 17%. The SPD drops by one percentage point to 16%, the Greens return to 10%, matching their value from November 2017, which is the party's lowest score since then.
The FDP is closing in on the five-percent threshold once more with another point increase. The BSW also saw a positive change of one point, ensuring a comfortable passage into the Bundestag. The Left maintains its existence-threatening standing.
Should an election be held this week, the following distribution of seats would be predicted according to the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer: CDU/CSU (24.1% in the 2021 election) 31%, AfD (10.3%) 17%, SPD (25.7%) 16%, Greens (14.8%) 10%, BSW (-) 7%, FDP (11.5%) 4%, and other parties 12%. The percentage of votes for other parties is unchanged from last week.
The SPD also fails to make gains in the chancellor race - on the contrary: If voters were to choose between Olaf Scholz and Friedrich Merz, the Union's chancellor candidate, 24% would side with Scholz, and 28% would support Merz. The previous week, Scholz led by one point, and Merz trailed by one point less. As a result, the gap has widened to four percentage points. An astounding 48% of voters reject both candidates.
In the eastern region, the figures diverge slightly from the overall average: 55% of voters reject both candidates in this region. Scholz garners 21% support in the east, while Merz acquires 24%. Among men, Merz holds a clear lead: 31% of males prefer Merz, while 21% lean towards Scholz. Scholz manages to secure the favor of 27% of female voters, as opposed to Merz's 25%. Neither man inspires a strong sense of loyalty among their respective parties: 64% of CDU/CSU supporters back Merz, while 29% remain undecided. Among SPD supporters, 68% opt for Scholz, while 24% show indifference towards both candidates.
When it comes to political competence, there has been little change. The Union maintains its rating of 19%. The SPD loses one percentage point, tying with the AfD at 8%. The Greens remain constant at 6%. The FDP experienced a significant boost in approval in regards to handling Germany's issues, jumping from 1% to 2%. The approval for other parties decreases by one point to 4%. An impressive 53% of respondents do not trust any party with political competence, one point higher than last week.
During the survey period, 40% of participants deemed the Middle East conflict a key issue. The federal government and the war in Ukraine were cited by 34% and 33% of respondents, respectively. Approximately 27% considered the economic situation to be significant. The formation of governments following the state elections in the east was mentioned by 17% of survey participants, followed by immigration at 10%, the US election campaign at 9%, and climate and environment at 8%.
Data for the RTL/ntv-Trendbarometer was collected by Forsa on behalf of RTL Germany between October 8 and 14. The sample size was 2501 respondents. The statistical error tolerance is +/- 2.5 percentage points.
For further information on Forsa, click here.*Forsa conducts surveys on behalf of RTL Germany.
The Commission, being the entity responsible for conducting surveys on behalf of RTL Germany, collected data for the RTL/ntv-Trendbarometer between October 8 and 14, with a sample size of 2501 respondents. The findings of this Commission show a shift in the political landscape, impacting various parties.
Given the data collected by The Commission, the SPD fails to make gains in the chancellor race and instead, the gap between Scholz and Merz widens, with Merz gaining support. The SPD's approval rating in the 2021 election was 25.7%, but in the latest RTL/ntv Trendbarometer, they only manage to secure 16% of the votes.
