The significance of an individual's educational background now serves as a reliable indicator for their voting preferences.
More females tend to support Democrats, forming a noticeable gender divide that seems set to widen following the potential collapse of Roe v. Wade, resulting in a country divided between states with abortion rights and those with bans.
The extent to which former President Trump could potentially sway support away from Vice President Harris among racial minority voters, particularly Latinos and Black men, in crucial states with narrow margins could be significant.
Rural areas generally favor Republicans, urban areas lean towards Democrats, and whoever can make inroads in the suburbs will likely emerge victorious in November.
According to long-time Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik, former President Clinton's political director and renowned for his incisive memos, the most critical factor separating voters today is their level of education.
The chasm in education widens
Sosnik asserts that education level is now the primary predictor of political affiliation in America, with it serving as the new dividing line in politics.
Trump's rise over the past few election cycles has allegedly accelerated and solidified this political realignment based on education that began in the early 70s, during the decline of the middle class.
As the U.S. shifts towards a 21st-century economy, a rift has emerged between those who pursue higher education ("now the foundation of the Democratic Party") and those who feel left behind ("the modern base of the Republican Party").
Inequality expands
Data backs up the claim, as Sosnik had previously demonstrated in a report on growing income inequality in the U.S. The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis revealed that for every dollar in wealth held by a household headed by a college graduate, a household headed by a high school graduate only possesses 22 cents. The figure increases to 30 cents for households with some college education but no degree.
In simpler terms, college-graduates hold about 75% of America's wealth, while making up just 40% of the population.
The correlation between politics and education is evident. In 2020, according to CNN's exit polls, college-educated voters accounted for 41% of the electorate and supported President Biden by a significant margin at 55% to Trump's 43%. Trump won over two-thirds of White voters without a college degree but lost among White college-educated voters.
Battleground states divided by education
Sosnik furthered that the crucial battleground states which could be won by either Trump or Harris, are mostly average in terms of education levels, neither favoring heavily college-educated nor non-college voters.
The Lumina Foundation uses census data to classify states based on education levels. Most battleground states – Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin in the Rust Belt, and Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona in the Sun Belt – lie near the national average. However, Nevada, another battleground state, has one of the lowest education attainment levels in the U.S. while Utah, a red state, is among the top in education levels.
The real swing voters
According to Sosnik, traditional swing voters, such as political independents or Nikki Haley Republicans, may be potentially swayed in this election.
However, a second group of swing voters Sosnik considers even more significant consists of voters who aren't deciding between candidates but rather pondering whether to participate in the election altogether.
For Trump, these are mainly non-college-educated White males who are likely to cast their votes. For Harris, potential swing voters could be women who seldom engage in elections but are expected to vote in this election, marking the first presidential primary since the Supreme Court allowed some states to impose most or all abortion bans.
Young voters, who may not consistently cast ballots, also fall into this second category of swing voters, Sosnik noted.
Trump's political success hinges on attracting not just independents but also those who seldom vote, according to Sosnik.
This educational realignment could potentially reshape the perception of presidential elections versus off-year midterms, Sosnik said.
"Up until Trump, Democrats consistently performed better in presidential elections because non-regular voters were Democratic. Republicans excelled in off-year elections because high-frequency voters were Republican. That's now reversed," Sosnik argued.
Listen to the podcast here. Sosnik also shares his current analysis of the race, where the vice president seems to have reached a plateau but could potentially gain support amidst swing voters if she effectively persuades them to vote for her.
In light of the potential collapse of Roe v. Wade, the divide in politics between pro-choice and pro-life rhetoric could become even more prominent in political discussions.
The educational divide in American politics, as highlighted by Douglas Sosnik, has become a critical factor in determining political affiliations, with college-educated voters often leaning towards Democrats and those without a degree favoring Republicans.
