- The Saxony election continues to maintain its unpredictability.
If Saxony holds a new state election this Sunday, the outcome is more unpredictable than ever before. As in 2016, the CDU and AfD remain neck and neck in opinion polls. The SPD, Greens, and Left are concerned about regaining their parliamentary seats. Entering the scene as a new player is the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (SWG), which has gained significant traction in polls, sometimes reaching up to 15%. Some refer to it as a "wildcard" or an "enigma," but its popularity as the third strongest force is indisputable.
The CDU's hold on victories has weakened over the years, with a noticeable decline in second votes since 1994. Despite maintaining victories, the CDU saw a drop from 1.2 million second votes in 1994 to 645,000 in 2014, with a marginal increase in 2019.
CDU swears off an alliance with the AfD
The CDU managed to keep a safe distance from the AfD in the 2019 Saxony election with a 32.1% share (27.5%). However, since then, the AfD has outperformed the CDU in two federal elections and one European election. Current polls indicate a close race between the two. The CDU strongly rejects any alliance with the AfD, considering the Saxony Office for the Protection of the Constitution classifies the AfD as a securely right-wing extremist in the state.
In the latest ZDF Politbarometer, the CDU leads the AfD by 33% to 30%. The SWG follows closely at 12%, while the Greens and SPD sit at 6% each. The Left would barely make it with 4% and would require winning two direct mandates. The Free Voters earned 4% in an earlier poll and expect better results. However, the FDP seems unlikely to make a return.
A Forsa poll, commisioned by RTL/ntv, presents a similar picture. According to the poll, the CDU holds a narrow lead over the AfD with 33% to 31%. The SWG comes in at 12%, equal to the Greens, but below the SPD at 7%. The Left falls short at 3%.
"The outcome of the election is as uncertain as never before," says Leipzig political scientist Johannes Kiess. The unpredictable nature of the election intensifies the campaign. "The Greens and Left might depend on direct mandates just to re-enter. There are so many variables; it's hard to predict the outcome."
Political analyst Hendrik Träger sees various possible outcomes based on poll results, from a three-party parliament consisting of the CDU, AfD, and SWG to a seven-party parliament including the SPD, Left, Greens, and Free Voters. "This would significantly complicate government formation," he states. Only the first three parties are 'set' in his view.
Will incumbent advantage boost the Minister-President?
According to Dresden political scientist Hans Vorländer, the SWG will undoubtedly influence government formation due to its fresh presence in the election. In the case of incumbent Minister-President Michael Kretschmer as the leading candidate, he predicts an incumbent bonus, making it possible for the CDU to surpass the AfD.
Many believe Kretschmer would enjoy a powerful negotiating position if both the SWG and the Greens secure their seats. He could potentially play them off against each other to form a stable government. However, whether he would attempt to forge a coalition with the SWG is questionable.
Kiess doubts if the SWG is seriously considering joining the government, or if their strategy is only "playing and gambling" for the federal election in 2023.
Is another iteration of the current coalition on the horizon?
The top candidates of the SPD and Greens continually stress the need for stable relationships during their campaigns, focusing primarily on themselves. The current coalition of CDU, Greens, and SPD has rarely enjoyed a majority in recent polls, causing tension to rise. The Greens have accused the SWG of being undemocratic and infiltrated by the Kremlin.
Similar accusations come from the Green corner, claiming that the CDU and SPD are colluding to form a minority government. According to political scientist Hans Vorländer, both parties maintain an unprecedented level of caution in their campaign, likely due to a well-executed strategy. Vorländer has observed this throughout the CDU and SPD's history of forming coalitions in Saxony.
Much also hinges on how much "crudity" each party displays during the election campaign. The Minister-President's criticism of the Greens has been rather harsh, leaving room for speculation over the Greens' willingness to collaborate if 'tarred and feathered' in the election campaign.
Kiess views this as election campaign rhetoric but advises against breaking too many vases, as the parties will likely need to negotiate soon.
Three political analysts share a consensus: Aggression and populism have experienced noticeable escalations. According to Vorländer, "The buzz on the streets during the campaigning hints at things getting pretty intense, adopting a raw and unrestrained attitude." The incident involving SPD politician Matthias Ecke, who suffered a brutal assault during his European election campaign in Dresden in May's early days, merely represents the tip of the iceberg. It's a reflection of the present era that hatred and discord aren't just perpetuated in secluded online forums or social media platforms, but also manifest openly on the streets.
The CDU's strategy during the election campaign heavily focuses on maintaining a distance from the AfD, despite their close races in recent elections, due to the AfD's classification as a right-wing extremist by the Saxony Office for the Protection of the Constitution. The election campaign's unpredictability is evident as the Greens and Left might rely on direct mandates to re-enter the parliament, and various coalitions are possible, making government formation complicated.
