The role of abortion legalities and immigration concerns in the competition for Arizona's 11 electoral votes
He's planning to cast his first vote for Kamala Harris.
"I'm honest with you, I'm not really a fan of Trump," stated Tapia, 42, "and I'm not scared of him winning. We shouldn't be scared. It's about what's ethical and what's not."
The balance between people who share Tapia's views and those who disagree might greatly influence the election results for Arizona's 11 electoral votes. It's a tight contest in this battleground state, where Latino men are highly sought after by both parties.
Early voting has already begun in Arizona, and the presidential candidates, their running mates, and numerous surrogates are all making their way to the state, hoping to gain an advantage before the election.
"Arizona is the blue wall of the southwest," said Tucson Mayor Regina Romero, a Democrat.
Abortion and immigration are significant factors in the election across the country, but these issues significantly collide in Arizona. Voters are deciding on ballot measures to ensure abortion rights in the state constitution and a separate vote on whether to make violations of immigration law state crimes, instead of just federal offenses.
Trump will be attending a rally in Prescott, Arizona, on Sunday. Harris visited the Phoenix area on Thursday and Friday, urging supporters to consider the consequences of the presidential election.
"This isn't 2016 and 2020," Harris said. "The stakes are even higher."
Four years ago, Trump lost Arizona by 10,457 votes out of more than 3.3 million cast – one of his narrowest defeats in any battleground state. Joe Biden became the first Democrat to win Arizona since Bill Clinton in 1996 and only the second since Harry Truman in 1948.
Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance mentioned this 2020 election result during a stop in Tucson to encourage supporters to take part in early voting programs.
"Eleven thousand votes, that was the margin last time," he told supporters at the Tucson Speedway, acknowledging Trump's defeat, but many supporters still question it.
Abortion on the ballot
With the Supreme Court recently overturning Roe v. Wade, abortion has become a crucial issue in Arizona's election.
A proposed constitutional amendment to protect abortion rights is expected to win, according to political strategists from both parties. It's uncertain, however, if the measure, Proposition 139, will attract voters not typically interested in politics, potentially benefiting Harris.
"Arizona, we need to fight this war on every front," Harris told supporters Thursday night. "You have the chance on the state level to vote 'yes' on Proposition 139 to protect your right to make your own health care decisions."
The measure would establish a "fundamental right" to receive abortion care until fetal viability, around the 24th week of pregnancy, with later exceptions if a healthcare provider believes the mother's life or mental health is at risk.
"It was a right we had for 50 years," said Donna Ross, a retiree who attended Harris' rally and thought the measure would increase voter turnout for the presidential campaign. "It's crazy to think that they can take that right away. Who does that?"
The political chaos surrounding abortion is just one of the significant questions looming over the election's final stages, and it's unclear if Proposition 139 would give Harris a clear advantage over Trump.
Laura Dent, whose team helped collect more than 800,000 signatures to put abortion rights on the ballot, said support for the amendment came from all sides, not just Democrats.
"It resonates with independents, with Democrats, with Republicans," said Dent, the group's campaign manager. "We welcome that support."
Mayra Rodriguez, a former Planned Parenthood clinic manager who became an anti-abortion activist, has been driving around Phoenix in an RV, urging people to vote 'no' on Proposition 139. She opposes Harris and supports Trump but doesn't think he's supportive of the anti-abortion movement.
"I don't believe he is," Rodriguez said. "I always tell people, unless Jesus is on the ballot, we have to choose the lesser of two evils."
For Rodriguez, the lesser evil is "Trump." Yet, not all Trump supporters agree.
As Candy Purdue walked to a Vance event earlier this week, she wore a Trump hat and campaign button. She intended to vote for Proposition 139 and felt the government should stay out of personal matters.
"I'm against abortion," Purdue said, "But I will vote for Prop 139 because I feel like every woman has a right to decide what she wants and what she can live with."
The immigration ballot measure, Proposition 314, provides another layer to the ongoing debate about border security in a state shared by Mexico. Republican state lawmakers placed the issue on the ballot instead of collecting signatures.
Despite border security being a significant concern in a state with a 370-mile border with Mexico, the measure has received minimal attention compared to the abortion proposal, with very little money spent on ads.
Over $117 million has been invested in advertising across Arizona by various parties, as per AdImpact data, with Democrats leading the way by spending $65 million, significantly more than the Republicans' $52 million expenditure.
As Arizona residents cast their votes either in person or through mail-in ballots before November 5, which marks Election Day, about 855,000 Latinos are projected to participate in the voting process, according to the National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials. This anticipated turnout is almost on par with the 2020 figure and represents a 58% increase compared to 2016.
Approximately 25% of Arizona voters are estimated to be of Latin origin.
In order to secure victory, Trump needs to demonstrate strong performance amongst registered Republicans and secure a significant portion of the independent voters, who account for around 25% of the electorate. His campaign is targeting those who lean towards Trump, even if they haven't consistently participated in recent elections.
Conversely, Harris aims to navigate a more complex path by securing a majority of independent voters and a slim portion of Republican votes. Her campaign is especially focused on the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (commonly known as the Mormon church), with around 5% of Arizona's adult population (or over 400,000 individuals) being Latter-day Saints, as revealed by the Pew Research Center.
John Giles, an LDS member and the head of Arizona Republicans for Harris, emphasized the importance of engaging in a passionate and responsible voting effort. He urged family members to guide their relatives in completing the comprehensive four-page, 80-question ballot.
Giles, addressing his supporters alongside Doug Emhoff, the husband of the Vice President, during an event in Arizona, expressed concern about the "appreciation for the urgency and the tremendous responsibility that we have as Arizona voters." He reiterated, "As Arizona goes, so does this election."
CNN's Veronica Stracqualursi and David Wright contributed to this report.
The election results in Arizona could heavily depend on the balance between supporters and opponents of candidates, as the state holds 11 electoral votes. (follows from text)
Discussions on politics, including the abortion rights ballot measure and immigration-related proposals, have become significant topics in Arizona's election. (contains the word 'politics')
