- The Potential Risks of Eastern Elections to Traffic Signals' Safety
It was unexpected that the traffic light coalition would face such significant challenges during the late summer and autumn, with tensions escalating to a level surpassing previous disputes. The SPD chancellor was compelled to intervene in the budget dispute during his vacation, the finance minister's letter on Ukraine aid provoked coalition partners, and ultimately, the Green Party leader labeled the coalition as a "transitional coalition."
Nevertheless, the coalition managed to regroup and show its ability to act swiftly on pressing issues without drawn-out debates and prolonged negotiations. On Thursday, in response to the suspected Islamist attack in Solingen, the government introduced a security package consisting of stricter knife bans and reduction in resources for certain asylum seekers. Subsequently, on Friday, the long-awaited deportation of criminal elements to Afghanistan, now under Taliban control, was carried out.
The SPD is now teetering dangerously close to the five-percent threshold. The party's performance in recent polls, despite the migration and security decisions, has been alarming. Their worst-ever results in Thuringia and Saxony in 2019 were 8.2 and 7.7 percent. In the current polls, they are even below these figures and face the potential of slipping below the five-percent threshold.
The Greens, too, risk losing their seats in the two state parliaments. Meanwhile, the FDP, which barely made it into the Thuringian state parliament in 2019, is often relegated to the "Other Parties" category due to failing to exceed the three-percent threshold.
Recently, not just the AfD, but also the alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) has garnered more support than all three traffic light coalition parties combined in certain polls.
Chancellor Scholz has thus far remained unaffected by past election defeats. When the SPD recorded its worst performance in an election beyond the last 130 years in the European election in May, he strolled through the Willy Brandt House, took selfies with his colleagues, and chose not to comment on the election results with a simple "No." The following day, he merely stated that it was now the coalition's responsibility to deliver on their promises and "prepare for an even stronger public backing."
Should the SPD underperform or even lose one of the state parliaments this time, Chancellor Scholz may not be able to brush off the election results as easily. While a premature dissolution of the traffic light coalition a year before the scheduled election remains a rarity, the coalition will need to outline its objectives and communicate them effectively to the public before the 2025 federal election on September 28.
The coalition still has several initiatives pending, including the implementation of the growth initiative, pension package, child basic security, wage agreement compliance, and a law to promote democracy. Furthermore, international crises in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the execution of the migration and security decisions need to be addressed.
The working group coordinated by Scholz, involving the federal government, states, and the largest opposition force (Union), is set to convene for the first time next Tuesday.
The AfD, eagerly anticipating these elections, sees an opportunity to shake up the German party system in the East. Victory in the upcoming elections in Sachsen, Thüringen, and Brandenburg could mark the first time the AfD has won a state election since its founding in 2013. The party views the eastern German states as a strategic stepping stone towards the 2025 federal election.
Given the party's observations by the domestic intelligence agency as a suspected right-wing extremist case, it is considered highly unlikely that the AfD will secure a majority or any potential coalition partners for the federal government. However, the party maintains an ambitious long-term vision, targeting the "super election year" of 2029.
By then, elections will be held once more in Brandenburg, Sachsen, and Thüringen, and the next federal election is approaching. The AfD believes that if dissatisfaction within the population and acceptance of their party have grown sufficiently by then, their time may come.
As a potential game-changer, Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW could witness the most dramatic rise of any new party in state elections. With double-digit poll numbers, the party may even gain a seat in the government.
Both the CDU and SPD are open to forming an alliance with Wagenknecht's party. Wagenknecht's party will interpret the election results as a positive signal for the 2025 federal election. As of now, the BSW is polling between eight and nine percent nationwide, while Wagenknecht's former party, The Left, would struggle to pass the five-percent threshold in the polls.
In theCDU, prolonged and intricate conversations regarding potential coalition buildings are anticipated. The leader of the federal party, Friedrich Merz, has categorically refused to collaborate with the AfD and Die Linke, employing the phrase "firewall" as a key term. Following the European election, he initially expressed reservations towards a partnership with the BSW, labeling them as "extremist in certain sectors on the right, while being extremist on the left in others." Only after pressure from leaders of eastern German states did he concede, delegating the decision to the state parties.
The crucial weeks for the chancellor candidate query, which Merz and CSU leader Markus Söder aim to settle in late summer, are commencing. In theCDU, there's a general consensus that the chancellor candidacy belongs to Merz, assuming he desires it.
However, things could become intriguing if theCDU encounters unforeseen challenges - considering Merz's active participation in the election campaigns himself. Or if certain individuals within the state associations begin to erode the AfD "firewall." PreviousCDU leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer faced such consequences, losing her position due to such discussions. It's widely speculated that CSU leader Söder, perceived as the more capable chancellor candidate, will capitalize on any turmoil that may arise.
Although the coalition faced significant challenges in East Germany, resulting in increased tensions and interventions from the SPD chancellor and Green Party leader, they were able to introduce a security package in response to the Solingen attack and carry out the deportation of criminal elements. Nevertheless, the political landscape in East Germany remains volatile, with the SPD, Greens, and FDP all at risk of losing seats in upcoming elections.
