The potential risk posed by raindrops.
Over the upcoming days, weather forecasters predict substantial rainfall in certain regions, with Germany's neighboring countries predicted to bear the brunt. The exact locations where the precipitation will fall remain uncertain, although emergency services are keeping a close eye on the forecasts. Some regions are forecasted to see record rainfall, increasing the risk of flooding, even in areas that have been dry so far. The Elbe and Oder are two rivers predicted to be affected.
The weather projections continue to fluctuate, with some models suggesting local rainfall of 300 to 400 liters per square meter, according to ntv meteorologists. However, it's yet unclear where the rain will fall. Expert predictions from the German Weather Service (DWD) put local rainfall in Bavaria, from the Mangfall Mountains to the Berchtesgadener Land, at 30 to 40 liters per square meter by Thursday evening.
The reason for this heavy rainfall is the Mediterranean, which still maintains water temperatures of up to 27 degrees in some places. This situation creates optimal conditions for releasing a significant amount of moisture into the atmosphere. Low pressure systems tap into these regions, eventually returning over the Alps to impact Germany over the next few days. For Germany, this could mean as much as 60 liters or even extreme amounts of 200 to 250 liters over the weekend, as per current expert estimates. The affected areas could include southeastern Bavaria, the Alpine foothills, and the Ore Mountains, with rain expected to start in Bavaria in the coming night.
Meanwhile, Austria, the Czech Republic, and Poland are predicted to experience persistent rain over the coming days, with the snow line expected to descend to 1000 to 1500 meters. In high-altitude regions of the Alps, 20 to 80 centimeters of new snow are expected, depending on the altitude, with snow depths of up to two meters possible in the Berchtesgadener Land. The frost line could occasionally drop to 1500 meters, as meteorologist Bjoern Alexander from ntv suggests, describing it as a "first winter interlude that packs a punch."
Gerhard Moessmer, an Austrian mountaineering expert, advises avoiding high mountains over the weekend due to the current weather forecast. Austria's state weather service Geosphere Austria has issued a rain, snow, and wind warning for the period Thursday to the beginning of next week, predicting 100 to 150 centimeters of new snow in high mountain ranges. However, it's possible to see brief snowfall even below 1000 meters above sea level, according to the forecast.
Even minor amounts of snow can make hiking trails difficult to identify, warns Moessmer. Furthermore, icing can transform simple routes into challenging passages, he explains. Moessmer recommends hiking near the valley, avoiding the tree line, if you still wish to venture out during the weekend. The Alpine Association advises careful tour planning and weather-appropriate clothing.
The unpredictable weather conditions are largely influenced by the Mediterranean's continued high water temperatures, providing ample moisture for precipitation. Despite the fluctuating projections, experts predict substantial rainfall in Bavaria, Germany, reaching up to 60 liters on average or even extreme amounts of 200-250 liters over the weekend.
