The potential cost to the GOP of Trump's persistent claims of election fraud
In an emblematic display of administrative ineffectuality, Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson faltered on Wednesday in his attempts to pass a six-month government funding extension, obligatorily incorporating a segment to thwart American voter access, as per Trump's whims.
The Republican nominee's consistent push for a bill unlawfully targeting noncitizen voting had left Johnson cornered, with no apparent escape routes, potentially inciting a political crisis in Washington ahead of the upcoming elections.
The strategy had no hope of producing new legislation – due to the Senate Democrats' opposition to the bill. Moreover, Johnson was unable to secure the support of 16 of his own party members, thanks to insurmountable demands from some stubborn conservatives for substantial budget reductions – also destined for failure due to the power divide in Washington.
Facing few options, Johnson now seems compelled to negotiate with Senate Democrats for a temporary government funding bill. However, given the morally questionable House GOP majority and Trump's looming influence, Johnson's every move will be marred by danger, should he aspire to retain his post following projected Republican victories in the November elections.
Trump appears to be orchestrating an internal party feud within the GOP, which could have disastrous consequences in November.
Historically, the party controlling the House traditionally shoulders the most significant political ramifications for government shutdowns, given their initial accountability for public financing. If Johnson fails to meet the October 1 funding deadline, the federal government could temporarily cease operations.
Trump is not accustomed to requesting advice from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the seasoned Kentucky veteran, who cautioned on Tuesday that a shutdown is "politically beyond stupid" to implement so close to the elections, as the responsibility for blame would primarily fall on the Republican camp.
A self-inflicted wound for the GOP in Trump's native state
Ironically, Trump's decision to perpetuate this political turmoil could most dramatically impact House Republicans in New York, where his stance risks jeopardizing the slim GOP majority in several competitive House districts. These districts swayed red during the 2022 midterm elections and served as the springboard for the GOP's meager House majority.
A crisis resulting from a shutdown that further alienates voters would pose a significant threat to the most vulnerable Republicans across the nation, potentially exacerbating their precarious positions in the November elections.
One of the most endangered Republican congressmen, Rep. Mike Lawler from the 17th Congressional District, anticipates that the debacle will resolve without a shutdown and believes that a funding bill will pass without the voting measure that Trump seeks.
Conversely, another at-risk New York Republican, Rep. Marc Molinaro, who enjoyed a shoutout at Trump's rally in Uniondale, endorsed the Wednesday bill but opposed using the threat of a shutdown to make a political statement. "We must uphold the continuity of government."
The proposed elections measure, which previously passed the House in a standalone vote, would require documentation confirming US citizenship to vote in elections. Critics argue that such legislation could disenfranchise eligible citizens without the necessary documentation and claim that the legislation is a futile attempt to address a non-existent problem.
Johnson has thus far embraced Trump's voter fraud allegations – post-2020 election as well as in the ongoing cycle. However, his relentless pursuit of Trump's approval and support from his base is seemingly driving Johnson into a profound predicament. Moreover, Johnson was unable to furnish evidence supporting his baseless claims that immigrants without authorization could cast their votes in November elections.
As of yet, it remains uncertain how far Trump will persist in pushing this issue, considering the measure's doomed fate. One possible explanation for Johnson's unsuccessful attempt to introduce the topic on Wednesday could be his intent to demonstrate to fellow Republicans, as well as the former president, the futility of the fight.
“Now we return to the game plan, devise another strategy, and come up with a solution,” Johnson told reporters, as feelings of frustration among House GOP members intensified over the lack of a coherent path forward.
However, Johnson subsequently lacks a clear strategy for extricating himself from the mess.
A vote that only served to inflame GOP frustration
Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – a Georgia Republican fervent in her support for Trump and a consistent thorn in Johnson's side – opted for an abstention from the Wednesday vote. She remained coy about her support for a government shutdown, declaring instead that the speaker's plan was an "unmitigated failure" and adding, "We could have completed our twelve separate appropriations bills in the absence of this month."
The escalating standoff on Capitol Hill is not the first instance where Trump's personal political ambitions have jeopardized his party's interests. His endorsement of subpar candidates in the 2022 midterms, primarily due to their subservience to his false election fraud claims, appeared to contribute to the predicted Republican landslide failure. Additionally, Trump's controversial campaign promotions cost his party control of the Senate in several swing states.
Trump's intervention in Johnson's political dilemma further explains the GOP's predicament, frequently pushing them into untenable positions and contentious standoffs that they consistently fail to win, thereby contributing to this Congress's notoriety as among the least productive in history. Johnson, who took over from former Speaker Kevin McCarthy last year, has often struggled to manage his party.
The eagerness of Republican leaders to promote Trump's baseless allegations of voter fraud is a concerning sign prior to an election, which Trump himself has hinted might not be fair and square. In 2020, similar to his current stance, Trump seems to be preparing to assert that he was unfairly robbed of victory if he loses to Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate.
On his personal social network, he wrote on Wednesday before the House vote: "Democrats are registering Illegal Voters in massive numbers right now - They will be casting their votes in the 2024 Presidential Election, and this is unacceptable." There's no evidence to support this claim. However, Trump issued a warning: "If Republicans don't manage to secure the SAVE Act, and every single detail of it, they shouldn't consider anytype of Continuing Resolution under any circumstance."
Trump's decision to hold a rally in New York, a state not expected to be competitive in November, left many strategists bewildered. But Trump enjoys performing on his home turf and celebrated the large turnout at the Nassau Coliseum on Long Island. Given that Trump receives extensive coverage on conservative media and plans on visiting battleground states soon, his support rallies in his original home state likely caused minimal damage.
To summarize, he had a great time, continually berating Harris for her economic and immigration policies, satirizing President Joe Biden's age, denying the existence of climate change, and depicting New York City as plagued by crime.
"We're going to win New York," Trump exclaimed, boasting that he was the only Republican capable of placing the Empire State on the map, a day when the Teamsters Union declined to endorse a presidential candidate after backing Democrats in recent times. This was a significant setback for Harris, reflecting Trump's ability to sway working-class voters and shift the previously corporate GOP into a working-class friendly party.
"Nice to see you again," Trump bid farewell to his audience as Puccini's aria "Nessun Dorma" played softly as he exited the stage.
The ongoing dispute over voter access has become a major point of contention in the realm of politics, with House Speaker Mike Johnson facing pressure to accommodate Trump's demands.
Johnson's failure to secure enough votes within his own party, coupled with Senate Democrats' opposition, has potentially set the stage for a political crisis ahead of the elections.
