The October 7 incidents serving as a pivotal shift in the political landscape of the United States
At the moment, nobody realized the global and domestic political ramifications of his pledge. A subsequent conflict revealed the crucial role the US plays in Israel's survival, yet it also put a significant strain on the alliance. This conflict also surfaced and amplified some of America's deepest political rifts before the volatile election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump in the upcoming month.
The October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks in Palestine, which claimed 1,200 lives, not only transformed the Middle East's strategic landscape as Israel confronted Hamas, then Hezbollah, and exchanged fire with their sponsor, Iran's arch-enemy, but also sparked a chain of events affecting countless lives worldwide, causing political turmoil far beyond the region.
Militarily, the United States and its allies have twice conducted extraordinary operations to shield Israel from missile and drone attacks from Iran. Furthermore, the US has also repeatedly bombed Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen who attacked international shipping in the Red Sea after October 7. With concerns of a full-blown Middle East war in Washington, the vulnerability of US troops in the region was tragically underlined in January when three US service personnel were killed in an attack on a base in Jordan.
Domestically, the fallout from the Hamas attacks coincided with the contentious politics of a presidential election year. Campus protests highlighted the fractures within the Democratic Party, leading to unprecedented political upheaval with Biden abandoning his reelection bid and backing Harris just months before the election. In the new race between Harris and Trump, events in the Middle East continue to trigger ripples that could affect the election's outcome. Additionally, a wave of antisemitism has left many Jews questioning their safety in America.
A major test for US foreign policy
Israel's offensive against Hamas in Gaza, resulting in the loss of tens of thousands of civilian lives, might have potentially shattered US hopes of a two-state solution. Furthermore, it has emerged as the most significant foreign policy challenge for the Biden administration at a time when the US-led global system is faltering under pressures from Russia and rising China.
Israel's escalation of the conflict against Hezbollah in Lebanon threatens to draw Washington into direct conflict with Iran, which has thus far been averted in nearly half a century of hostility since the Islamic revolution.
Biden, a staunch supporter of Israel for decades, has faced growing suspicion and disagreements with the most right-wing Israeli government in history. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly dismissed the US president's attempts to reduce the civilian casualties in Gaza and has disregarded Washington's priorities when US and Israeli interests diverged. As a result, the Biden administration has suffered a significant erosion of its international standing and its foreign policy priorities have been compromised.
Months of US diplomacy, involving Secretary of State Antony Blinken, CIA Director William Burns, and other high-ranking officials, have yielded only limited progress in releasing hostages in Gaza. Moreover, a ceasefire with Hamas appears increasingly unlikely. Sometimes, it seemed that the US was interested in an agreement more than Netanyahu or Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who placed Hamas forces within civilian areas, exacerbating the conflict's toll.
Biden's credibility has also been tarnished by Netanyahu's defiance, who has not hesitated to intervene in US domestic politics, seemingly favoring Republicans aligned with Trump.
Following the October 7 attacks, it seemed Netanyahu was headed for political oblivion, with his image as Israel's protector destroyed by the country's darkest day. However, his tenacity means it's now almost certain he will outlast Biden, who leaves office in January. The widening conflict that the president will pass on to either Trump or Harris will be a blemish on the legacy of a statesman who viewed himself as a foreign policy expert.
Wide-ranging domestic political consequences
The Hamas attacks and Israel's response have exposed and further widened rifts within American society and politics.
The United States has been involved in mediating Middle East peace for multiple generations. However, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has never become such a precarious domestic political issue as it did following October 7.
Footage of Israel's retaliation against Hamas in Gaza and horrifying scenes of Palestinian children and civilians killed sparked an anti-Israel backlash on the left, exerting dangerous political pressure on Biden and later Harris.
Rage among progressives at Israel and the Biden administration's failure to curb Netanyahu divided the Democratic coalition. Thousands of Arab American voters and others refused to support Biden in the primaries, and the prospect of them sitting out or voting third-party, particularly in a critical swing state like Michigan, could jeopardize Harris's White House aspirations. While he was still running for president, Biden was repeatedly disrupted by pro-Palestinian demonstrations and confronted by banners that read, "Genocide Joe," reflecting his failure to protect Palestinian civilians.
Harris is now grappling with the same treacherous balancing act that previously thwarted Biden. She must prioritize US foreign policy interests, uphold her commitment to Israel, and attempt to quell the internal unrest within the Democratic Party over the conflict. In a sign of continuing concern over the political backlash, Harris recently traveled to Michigan to meet with Arab American leaders.
But her opposition to the situation was clear from previews of an interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes,” scheduled for airing on Monday. "The job we perform diplomatically with Israel's leadership is continual in our pursuit of expressing our principles, such as the need for humanitarian aid, the necessity for this conflict to end, the need for a settlement to be reached, leading to the release of hostages and a ceasefire," Harris stated.
"And we won't slow down in terms of exerting pressure on Israel and the region, including Arab leaders," she continued.
She strongly asserted that the U.S. had significantly influenced Netanyahu's strategy, contradicting appearances. "The work we've done has resulted in several shifts in that region by Israel that were directly or indirectly instigated by our advocacy for what needs to occur in the region," she explained.
The Tacit Alliance between Trump and Netanyahu
Netanyahu has been a strategic player in American politics since the Clinton administration in the 1990s. However, his strategic moves to maintain power have reached new heights over the past year. He has found common ground with Republicans who sought to exploit the conflict to harm Biden during the electoral campaign. In July, he addressed the U.S. Congress during a trip largely orchestrated by the GOP, which sparked widespread anger among Democrats.
Netanyahu seems to be betting on Trump's return to office. During his first term, Trump accommodated Netanyahu's hawkish policies and has used the war post-October 7 to bolster his own narrative that the world is moving towards World War III under the Democrats' watch.
The political divide over Israel's intentions intensified over the weekend, following Biden's statement that Israel should not respond to Iran's ballistic missile attacks by striking Iranian nuclear facilities. Many of Netanyahu's U.S. supporters believe that after eliminating Hezbollah's top leaders and apparently damaging Lebanon's Iranian-backed group's military capabilities, the opportunity to disrupt Tehran's nuclear program will never be better.
However, there are doubts about Israel's ability to set back the program, given that the facilities are dispersed and deeply buried. Many experts also fear that such an attack could trigger an apocalyptic war involving the U.S.
Trump, aiming to portray Biden and Harris as weak, seems to be egging Netanyahu on to take action. "What about Iran?" Trump asked a North Carolina audience at a town hall. "Should you hit Iran? And (Biden) says: 'As long as they don't hit the nuclear stuff.' That's what you should hit, right? I think he got that one wrong."
Antisemitism Troubles American Jews
The repercussions of the October 7 attacks extended far beyond their impact on the election. They also had a traumatic impact on American Jews.
The belief in Israel as a safe haven for the global Jewish diaspora was challenged by the Hamas terror attacks on kibbutzim and a music festival. Many American Jews have felt threatened at home due to antisemitism spurred by Hamas' attacks and some of the protests against Israel's response. Pro-Palestinian protests at U.S. colleges sometimes escalated into antisemitism.
Jonathan Greenblatt, the CEO of the Anti-Defamation League, warned on CNN's “State of the Union” that he had never seen such a surge in hate and antisemitic conspiracy theories in the U.S. "We are commemorating, honoring, this solemn anniversary of the murder of 1,200 people simply because they were Jewish," Greenblatt told Dana Bash. "They were slaughtered, they were tortured, they were killed, they were kidnapped. And yet, here in the United States, that triggered a tsunami of anti-Jewish hate."
Since the October 7 attacks, the ADL has reported over 10,000 antisemitic incidents in the U.S., including over 8,000 instances of verbal or written harassment, over 1,800 acts of vandalism, and over 150 physical assaults.
Trump has also contributed to the tension. The former president has used antisemitic tropes about dual loyalties to Israel and the U.S. in saying that Jewish voters who support Biden and Harris should have their "head examined" and that if he loses, Jewish voters will partly be to blame for his defeat.
The Widening Shockwaves in the Year Ahead
What next?
The next White House occupant will inherit one of the most critical crises facing a modern president.
If Harris wins, she will need to establish her policy on the conflict after refusing to discuss her views beyond the constraints of Biden's approach. She will likely face the same tests to her authority and the complications of a clash between U.S. and Israeli interests as Biden has faced since a resolution seems unlikely in the coming months.
And while Trump is often perceived as likely to offer Netanyahu a blank slate, his opposition to U.S. involvement in foreign wars, especially in the Middle East, may mean he is less inclined to encourage an escalation if he returns to office.
Whatever happens next month, the U.S. will remain deeply entangled in the new realities of the Middle East post-October 7, 2023.
In the midst of the heated political atmosphere leading up to the election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, events in the Middle East continue to serve as potential election-altering factors. (follows from text)
The political discourse surrounding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict became a significant domestic political issue, causing divisions within the Democratic Party and impacting election outcomes. (follows from text)
