The huntress has picked up the scent
Who is in charge among the US Republicans - and who will run for the White House for them? The answer is apparently clear: Donald Trump. But even his dominance is finite. An old acquaintance is gathering more and more supporters.
From the perspective of the "Make America Great Again" Republicans, the script for the 2024 presidential election has already been written: Trump delays or gets off lightly from his numerous court cases, simultaneously strolls from one primary victory to the next, and becomes the only option for conservatives, who officially nominate him and finally kick Joe "Sleepy Joe" Biden out of the White House again in November. In this scenario, moderate Republicans are frustrated, but still support Trump out of loyalty to the party and lack of alternatives. Just as many did from 2016 to 2020.
But there are also Republicans who see things very differently. They hope to finally get rid of Trump. In the first primary states, one name has stood out in recent weeks: Nikki Haley. On average, the 51-year-old is ahead of the ex-president's main rival, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, in two of the first four primary states. The gap to Trump is gigantic. But, of course, no one can predict one hundred percent what dynamic the primaries will develop.
In the Iowa primary, for example, support for Trump dropped to 44.7 percent, with Haley just behind DeSantis with 15.3 percent and 17.5 percent. In New Hampshire, Haley is the ex-president's first runner-up with 18.9 percent, while DeSantis has even fallen behind Chris Christie, who currently has 11.6 percent. No poll results are available for the following Nevada, and if Haley performs solidly, South Carolina could really push her up after that. She was a successful governor there and polls put her at 20 percent.
Trump - from patron to competitor
Haley was US ambassador to the United Nations under Trump, at least for part of his presidency. She left early, at her own request and surprisingly on good terms. Not many people can say that about themselves who Trump brought into his government team but often kicked out again through the revolving door. Before Haley announced her candidacy early in February, she had called the ex-president. Her former boss gave her his blessing. "She should definitely apply!" he said patronizingly.
Since then, Haley has slowly but steadily risen in the Republicans' favor and has left the other candidates behind. According to "Politico", her election campaign has been gathering steam for several weeks now. In the early primary states, she has added organizers and new donors. For example, some supporters of Tim Scott, another moderate candidate who dropped out after the last televised debate, have defected to her and will soon be organizing a fundraiser in New York City. Her campaign appearances in New Hampshire have been bursting at the seams.
Haley has a huge advantage: she appeals to Republicans who would rather see a candidate who didn't spring from "Make America Great Again" (MAGA). "She has real room to grow," a Republican organizer who has worked on several Republican campaigns in the past is quoted as saying.
This was DeSantis' problem from the start: it came across as Trump's copy, even trying to overtake the ex-president on the right. The governor's strategy has not worked so far, with people preferring to opt for the original. DeSantis has plummeted on a national level from over 30 percent approval in the spring to 12.6 percent. Trump towers over everyone with an almost surreal 60 percent, but Haley has now cracked the 10 percent mark for the first time. She has obviously successfully taken up the trail for high office.
There is a second path to the White House
Haley represents the usual conservative positions, she comes across as authentic because she does not put on airs and is not aggressive, but determined. She is also on-topic and quick-witted. She has literally debated her way to the top - she made the last big leap in voter favorability after the candidate debate in early November. Trump was not there, because he probably also knows that every presidential candidate with similarly good approval ratings has become president so far.
Haley once called Trump her "friend" and even promised two years ago that she would not run against him but would support him if he ran again. At first glance, this sounds like a contradiction. However, the history of US election campaigns shows that this does not rule out a candidacy. After all, there is a vice-presidential position. And a well-known woman who rationally represents moderate conservative positions and thus picks up swing voters and MAGA skeptics in the suburbs? She could help Trump get his revenge.
Source: www.ntv.de
