The FBI traditionally disseminates crime statistics with a delay. A novel crime monitor aims to offer real-time updates, with the FBI seemingly lagging in this regard.
Has the trend of criminal activity persisted this year? Preliminary information from the FBI indicates a yes, but it's important to note that this data is not yet conclusive and only covers crimes up until the end of June.
Moreover, we've witnessed significant events since then, such as two attempted assassinations on a presidential candidate, numerous destructive hurricanes, and the annual surge in mass shootings during summer. However, the FBI has yet to release data relating to these months. They are currently in the process of collecting and verifying data from numerous law enforcement agencies, a task that will take several additional months to complete.
Crime experts and researchers like Jeff Asher express frustration due to the delay in obtaining reliable and timely data from the FBI. Asher contends that in various sectors of American society, we demand swift understanding of trends, even if the cause remains contested. But for crime data, we are content to wait nine months before gaining a comprehensive understanding of the situation.
Making essential decisions based on a subpar grasp of the situation nationally and locally is unacceptable, in Asher's opinion.
As a result, Asher's company, AH Datalytics, launched the Real-Time Crime Index in September. This site analyzes crime data from more than 280 law enforcement agencies, providing a visual depiction of nationwide crime trends. The site offers information on types of crimes, including homicides, robberies, and rapes, and separates data based on city size and state.
Various non-governmental groups are working to expedite the release of crime statistics in the United States, together with AH Datalytics. Other organizations involved include the Gun Violence Archive and the Live Crime Tracker from NORC at the University of Chicago.
Furthermore, the FBI has expressed a desire to become more timely in the delivery of crime statistics. In response to CNN inquiries regarding the delay in publishing crime statistics, the FBI stated they would begin releasing statistics on a monthly basis "in the coming months."
This shift towards greater timeliness represents a significant milestone, according to the FBI. They look forward to providing more timely data to consumers, they claimed in a statement.
With a presidential election underway, crime remains a prominent concern for many voters. However, candidates are divided on the issue, neither admitting to an increase or decrease in crime. Data from a July murder won't be included in official FBI crime statistics until well after the election.
As of mid-October, the Real-Time Crime Index was providing data up until August, providing the public with essential information ahead of the FBI. According to their analysis, homicides have decreased by 15.9% and violent crime by 4.1% this year compared to the same period the year prior.
For reference, the FBI's latest data, released in late September, showed a drop of 23% in homicides and 10% in violent crime compared to the same period in 2023. Both sets of data suggest a downward trend in murders and violent crimes compared to the previous year.
The Real-Time Crime Index's objective is to provide a reliable knowledge base, enabling journalists, researchers, and policymakers to scrutinize the causes of crime trends and engage in more substantive debates.
The FBI's delay in providing crime data can be attributed primarily to the pursuit of accuracy, experts say. There are around 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the United States, many of which voluntarily submit their data to state or FBI agencies through the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. The FBI undertakes rigorous quality control checks to ensure the data's validity before publishing its analysis, but this requires time.
The FBI initially sets a deadline for agencies to submit crime data for the preceding year, typically by April 1. At this point, the FBI performs quality and completeness checks for errors or issues. The subsequent production of the FBI's annual crime stats publication takes months, followed by internal and agency reviews.
Recently, the FBI has accelerated its processes. In September 2020, they began releasing quarterly crime data, stating that this schedule would provide greater timeliness for national crime data releases on their website. Furthermore, the FBI told CNN that they planned to shortly release new crime statistics every month through their Crime Data Explorer (CDE) site.
The CDE site would display up-to-date trend data, although with a three-month lag to permit states sufficient time to report crime statistics. This crime data would constantly evolve, yet the FBI expects that the transparency would enhance data quality as agencies could consistently evaluate and revise the data.
Specialists in crime statistics analysis have identified some disadvantages in the FBI's emphasis on precision over promptness. Asher, along with other experts from AH Datalytics, explained to CNN that their work complements the FBI's data rather than replacing it.
"The significance lies in comprehending situations rapidly, followed by a comprehensive, more precise analysis, and applying a more thorough methodology to your interpretation," Asher explained.
This project is backed by a three-year grant from Arnold Ventures, an assistance organization founded by John and Laura Arnold - a former oil business leader and hedge fund entrepreneur, respectively. Their mission is to deliver evidence-based solutions to major problems.
Analyzing criminal justice policy proposals, however, is challenging due to the delay in obtaining timely, accurate data from the FBI, according to Jennifer Doleac, the criminal justice executive vice president at Arnold Ventures.
"If a city initiates a new program this year, it could be three to five years before we can evaluate its effect," she shared with CNN. "Researchers as well as policymakers seek a more rapid turnaround than that."
CNN's Chief Law Enforcement and Intelligence Analyst, John Miller, states that the FBI's meticulously refined historical data is vital, yet raw, real-time data is more beneficial for policing chiefs, strategists, and officials for identifying trends and modifying strategies.
"Although the figures might not be perfectly accurate, as a radar for national crime trends, they will fall within the margin of error and provide necessary speed," Miller stated.
The Real-Time Crime Index addresses one of these challenges, but Doleac emphasized the lack of data on other fundamental aspects of the criminal justice system, such as courts and prisons.
"My team and I are imagining a future where we have more data to guide our interventions, and so this is all part of the process of transitioning in that direction," she explained.
A significant advancement
Piquero commended the Real-Time Crime Index as a "significant advancement" and considered it "very useful" in supplying up-to-date information without jeopardizing much accuracy.
"They offer a helpful sensor, I would argue," Piquero told CNN. "While not representative of every city and person, it’s preferable to nothing, and I believe that’s the real value of that."
However, the requirement for a tool like the Real-Time Crime Index exposes broader issues with the government's technique to crime data, Piquero noted.
"When people must undertake the responsibilities that I believe the federal government should be performing, that's a concern in my mind," Piquero said.
As of October 2024, the Real-Time Crime Index contains data from approximately 300 law enforcement agencies covering approximately 75 million people and nearly half of the country's murders. Although it is not the entire U.S., this data set is substantial enough to make the index a predictor of national crime trends, according to Asher.
"Crime statistics are inexact, but sampling agencies this way is an established method for accurately measuring trends while awaiting annual national crime estimates," the website explains boldly.
In the short term, Asher aims to enhance the database to around 500 to 1,000 agencies. He would also like to include alternative metrics such as clearance rates – a term that refers to the percentage of crimes solved through arrests or other means – and carjackings in the database. For the long term, he hopes that this tool will eventually be entrusted to the government for management.
"We consider this as a public good," Asher said. "There's no subscription cost. Agencies don't have to pay to participate. Nobody has to pay to access the data. We'd love for this to be government-run someday, and that's our goal."
Despite the delay in obtaining comprehensive crime data from the FBI, our team at AH Datalytics made essential decisions and launched the Real-Time Crime Index in September, utilizing data from over 280 law enforcement agencies. This allowed us to provide timely information to the public, demonstrating that 'us' as a collective can take initiative and provide valuable insights despite governmental constraints.
Furthermore, the Real-Time Crime Index has gained traction, with various non-governmental groups partnering to expedite the release of crime statistics in the United States. These collaborations highlight how 'us' as a society can work together to overcome challenges in obtaining critical information for policymaking and research.
