The far-right FPÖ has undeniably emerged victorious
In the Austrian National Council elections, the right-wing Freedom Party (FPO) has clinched a significant victory. The FPO is leading by nearly three percentage points over the conservative Austrian People's Party (ÖVP). However, forming a government might be challenging due to the top candidate's situation.
Defense Minister Claudia Tanner of the ÖVP, casually referred to the results as a "wake-up call." She quickly moved on after making this remark to an ORF reporter who had approached her for a statement. Later in Vienna, around 7 p.m., a small protest took place. Protesters chanted, "Down with the FPO!"
The FPO has achieved their best result ever in the National Council elections, receiving approximately 29% of the vote. They've gained around 13 percentage points compared to the last election in 2019. Conversely, the current ÖVP and Green coalition has suffered a clear defeat, losing around 16 percentage points. The ÖVP now stands in second place with around 26%, followed by the SPÖ with 21%. Two small parties could potentially impact future coalition talks. The economic liberal NEOs have around 9%, and the Greens are in fifth place with one percentage point less.
A three-party coalition may be necessary
Coalition negotiations in Austria are set to be challenging. A "grand coalition" between the Austrian People's Party and the Social Democrats would have a narrow majority in the National Council, but their goals are significantly different. For example, the Social Democrats want to implement a wealth tax to balance the budget, while the ÖVP is strongly opposed to it. Additionally, the SPÖ's top candidate, Andreas Babler, is controversial within the party, and many political observers fear an ÖVP-SPÖ coalition could be unstable due to the narrow majority.
A third coalition partner could potentially stabilize the coalition talks. Currently, the NEOs are the most likely option, as the Greens are not well-liked by other parties and have lost five percentage points. Meanwhile, the NEOs have gained around one percentage point. If successful, this would mark Austria's first three-party coalition since 1945.
FPO government possible: ÖVP wants Kickl out
A coalition between the FPO and ÖVP would have a stable majority in the National Council. However, Chancellor Nehammer has refused a coalition with FPO top candidate Herbert Kickl, and Kickl has also expressed his disinterest in collaborating with Nehammer. Other ÖVP speakers have also rejected a coalition with Kickl. Interestingly, no one from the ÖVP has ruled out a coalition without Kickl.
Even if Kickl steps down from the chancellorship, forming an FPO government would be challenging. It would have to be appointed by Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen. On Sunday evening, he stated, "I will do my best to ensure that the principles of our liberal democracy are respected during the government formation process, such as the rule of law, separation of powers, human and minority rights, independent media, and EU membership." This effectively rules out an FPO government led by Kickl.
Despite this, FPO leader Kickl remains determined. He wants to form a government that brings about changes, Kickl says in the Austrian TV station ORF. "Our hand is extended in all directions," Kickl says.
On the other hand, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer of the ÖVP refers to the election result as bitter. "We stand for a politics of the center and stability," he says.
After a bitter election result, lengthy coalition negotiations are expected in Austria. Following the last National Council elections, the negotiations lasted around three months. Observers suspect: This year, three months might not be enough.
The public sector may face potential changes if the Freedom Party (FPO) forms a government, considering their focus on economic liberalization as evidenced by their coalition partner, the NEOs. The Austrian government, regardless of its composition, must uphold principles such as the rule of law and EU membership, as stated by Federal President Alexander Van der Bellen.
