#EP2024 - Upcoming Election Predictions for 2024 - The European elections' impact on federal politics
Which politician will dictate the course of European politics from Strasbourg and Brussels? This question is the crux of the upcoming election where almost 65 million Germans will cast their votes on Sunday. This poll is not only a measuring stick for the political climate in Berlin but also the first nationwide election between the Bundestag elections in 2021 and 2025.
The traffic light coalition, comprised of SPD, Greens, and FDP, managed to secure 47% votes in the last Bundestag election. However, with only 31-33% votes in the polls, there's concern that this government could face harsh punishment if they repeat their worst performance in the 2019 European Elections, with an output of 15.8% votes for the SPD. Will such defeats lead to discussions on the party's direction or the chancellor's role?
The most significant loss would be for the SPD under Chancellor Olaf Scholz. They had hit rock bottom with their worst-ever showing at the European Election in 2019. If they undercut that, Scholz might be held accountable. He's tried to reinforce his position within the party by appearing stoically, often alongside party leader Katarina Barley, and attending key events. However, if this doesn't help, the situation might become more complicated.
The Greens have faced the steepest decline among the Ampel parties, polling at 13-15% after a 20.5% result in the previous European Election. It remains uncertain if they can surpass the AfD, given the current poll data. Despite this potential setback, the Greens believe they'll maintain their commitment to the Ampel coalition.
The FDP is the party most likely to experience disgruntlement within this coalition. They had also endured a meager 5.4% outcome last time and could potentially achieve even lesser results if they don't manage to hold on to their support base. They placed defense policy expert Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann, formerly of the AfD, as a high-profile candidate but poll at 4-5%, implying a downward trend for them as well.
Can Merz solidify his position for the Chancellorship?
The Union views this election as a chance to showcase its comeback since their humiliating loss at the Bundestag election in 2021. With their steady support of around 30%, the Union stands a good chance to emerge as the strongest contender. Their leaders, Friedrich Merz for the CDU and Markus Söder for the CSU, could interpret any decisive victory as a decree against Scholz's traffic light government. With Merz taking control of the CDU a month ago, it could signal his firmer footing; however, the Union's hierarchy may delay any concrete decisions on its chancellor candidate till after the September elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg.
How will the right-wing movement shape up?
The strength of right-wing elements is also a topic of interest in Germany. The AfD could acquire more seats, albeit not as substantially as initially projected a few months ago. They were looking at potentially doubling their 11% share from the previous European Election. However, following reports of a right-wing gathering in Potsdam and weeks of headlines about potential links between AfD co-leaders Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron to Russia and China, their tally has dwindled to 14-17%. The recent Mannheim knife attack might impact their votes too.
What should we expect from Wagenknecht's Alliance?
The Alliance of Sahra Wagenknecht, established in January 2023, must pass its first test in this European Election. While Wagenknecht didn't participate in the election, she organized 18 "Sahra Comes" rallies across Germany, which drew several hundred participants. She emphasizes social pressure points like Ukraine's peace, heating regulations, coal ban, and pensions, often critiquing the traffic light coalition in a harsh manner. If this approach succeeds, the Alliance may finally gain a foothold in German politics.
So, who will drive European politics from Strasbourg and Brussels? The result could be a power shift or a renewed mandate for the traffic light coalition. Will the status quo remain intact? Or will influential players would emerge to challenge it? The answers to these questions can't be known till Sunday.
Yet, Wagenknecht seemed hesitant towards the finale about how well her party will truly perform in its initial voting. Prior, she wished for a double-digit outcome in the European poll. Now, she expresses: "I hope for 5% plus. That would be a phenomenal victory for a team that is merely six months old." Surveys indicate the BSW at 5-7% currently.
Read also:
- The upcoming European elections in 2024 will significantly impact the federal politics of Germany, particularly in Berlin.
- The European elections on Sunday will be the first nationwide poll between the Bundestag elections in 2021 and 2025.
- The SPD, led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is facing criticism for their worst-ever showing at the European Election in 2019.
- If the SPD underperforms in the European elections, discussions about the party's direction or the chancellor's role may ensue.
- Friedrich Merz, the current leader of the CDU, views the European elections as an opportunity to solidify his position for the Chancellorship.
- The EU elections will serve as a measuring stick for the political climate in Germany and its impact on European policy.
- The FDP, part of the traffic light coalition, could face disgruntlement within the coalition if they don't hold onto their support base in the European elections.
- The AfD, a right-wing party, might see an increase in seats in the European elections but not as substantially as initially projected.
- Sahra Wagenknecht and her Alliance, established in January 2023, should pass their first test in the European elections and aim for a double-digit outcome.
- The Dutch Elections will also take place alongside the European elections and will impact the EU's political landscape.
- The EU elections will significantly impact the Federal election campaign in Germany, with potential winners gaining a stronger stance in German and European policy.
- The results of the European elections will be crucial in determining which politician will dictate the course of European politics from Strasbourg and Brussels, shaping both German and European policy for the next few years.
