The data pertaining to the legislative election for the Landtag in Saxony
Election Night in the East: Approximately 3.3 million eligible voters in Saxony will determine the political future leader of the Dresden state parliament. initial predictions suggest that the CDU might face a tough time maintaining its position as the dominant faction.
A tense outcome is shaping up in the Free State of Saxony: In the state election, the initial projections indicate that the CDU is currently leading. Incumbent Minister President Michael Kretschmer's party is estimated to receive 31.9 percent of the votes. The Alternative for Germany (AfD) is projected to trail closely behind with 31.3 percent.
The Party for Progress and Democratic Social Justice (BSW), led by Sahra Wagenknecht, is expected to finish third in the projections, with 11.6 percent. The Social Democrats (SPD) are projected to receive 7.8 percent of the votes in Saxony, while the Greens are estimated to just scrape past the 5 percent threshold, with 5.2 percent. The Left and the Free Democratic Party (FDP) are both predicted to fall short, with 4.5 and 4.4 percent, respectively. The vote counting is still ongoing.
Saxony's Minister President Michael Kretschmer believes that a stable government can be achieved with the result. While it won't be easy, he's confident it can be done. Kretschmer addressed CDU supporters in Dresden, stating beforehand.
His party is prepared to carry on shouldering responsibility. However, Kretschmer has yet to reveal which party he plans to form a coalition with.
Finding a viable majority for establishing a government could be challenging: The Saxon CDU has grappled with falling behind the AfD in second place in recent weeks.
Thus far, Kretschmer has been supported by a black-green-red majority. However, it's highly debatable whether this coalition can continue in its current form. Kretschmer has declared his intention to govern without the Greens in the future. Yet, his coalition options without the Greens are limited.
The CDU has served as the Minister President of the Saxon state government since reunification. If Kretschmer secures less than 32.2 percent of the votes in the election, he must accept the CDU's worst-ever result in a state election in Saxony.
Kretschmer's options for maneuver also rely on how many parties successfully surpass the 5 percent threshold. Nevertheless, even with the Greens in the state parliament, a continuation of the black-green-red coalition would not be straightforward: According to the current state of the projections, it would just be enough for the CDU and SPD, along with the Saxon Greens, to achieve a stable majority.
"The people here in Saxony have put their trust in us - they haven't cast a vote of protest," Kretschmer declared on election night. The past few years have been challenging, the people are disillusioned with the federal government in Berlin. Therefore, Kretschmer asserts, the result represents a strong display of support for the Saxon CDU.
In the upcoming coalition negotiations, the CDU will prioritize forming a coalition agreement with the state and the people, Kretschmer stated - "And then, there won't be anything else for a while."
In the 2019 election, the CDU endured its worst result in Saxony since reunification, with 32.1 percent of the vote. The AfD finished second with 27.5 percent, while the Left party ranked third with 10.4 percent. The Greens received 8.6 percent of the vote in Saxony in 2019, placing the Social Democrats in fifth position, with 7.7 percent.
The upcoming coalition negotiations in Saxony will be significant, as the initial projections indicate a close race between the CDU and the AfD. Elections to the Landtag of Saxony could potentially result in a tough decision for Minister President Michael Kretschmer about which party to form a coalition with, given the tight margin between the two leading parties.
