"The Conservatives' reputation as a party of honesty has been destroyed"
The latest chairpersons of the British Conservatives have significantly damaged their party, says British political scientist Tim Bale**: "Boris Johnson has destroyed the Conservatives' reputation as a party of honesty, Liz Truss has wasted the Tories' credibility as economic managers, and Rishi Sunak just seems weak." Bale believes that Labour will at least secure a comfortable majority in Thursday's election.
ntv.de: What are the main topics of the current election campaign in Great Britain?
Tim Bale: The main issues were taxes and spending, immigration, the poor leadership of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and the integrity of Conservative Party representatives after the scandal. The National Health Service (NHS) hasn't really come to the forefront as much as one might have expected, but the Labour Party will likely focus on this issue towards the end of the campaign.
What role has Brexit played?
It's the proverbial elephant in the room - no one wants to talk about it, yet it's responsible for many problems that both the Conservative Party and the country are facing. Surveys suggest that many people - possibly the majority - view Brexit as a mistake, but few are eager to revisit the question.
Why have the Conservatives lost so much trust in the population?
The Tories have been in power for fourteen years and have little to show for it: The economy has been stagnant for some time, living costs have risen, public services are in crisis. They have failed to demonstrate that Brexit has brought any benefits, particularly when it comes to immigration control, one of the main reasons for voters. And then there are the party leaders: Boris Johnson has destroyed the Conservatives' reputation as a party of honesty, Liz Truss has wasted the Tories' credibility as economic managers, and Rishi Sunak just seems weak.
What has Labour done right in the last few years?
They have signaled that they have changed and have moved towards the center of the political spectrum since the obviously left-wing Corbyn years. [Anm.: Jeremy Corbyn was Labour leader from 2015 to 2020. He belonged to the very left wing of the party, his tenure was marked by controversies.] And Labour has restored its message and party discipline, which it had lost. They have elected a leader who is seen as a safe pair of hands: Keir Starmer may be boring, but he is not alarming.
What does the right-wing British Reform Party of Nigel Farage want?
In short, they want less immigration, less "Wokeness," and less climate politics. They claim they can finance high public expenditures through imaginative tax cuts and efficiency improvements.
What do you think the election result on Thursday will look like?
I believe Labour will at least secure a comfortable majority, Nigel Farage will enter parliament, the Liberal Democrats will make significant gains, and the Tories will likely win between 100 and 200 seats, although that's far from certain.
What needs to change after the elections in the United Kingdom?
I believe Labour will at least secure a comfortable majority, Nigel Farage will enter parliament, the Liberal Democrats will make significant gains, and the Tories will likely win between 100 and 200 seats, although that's far from certain. The political landscape will shift, and new challenges will emerge. The parties will need to adapt to the changing circumstances and address the issues that matter most to the electorate. The economy, public services, and immigration will remain key concerns, and the Brexit debate will continue to shape British politics. The parties that can offer credible solutions to these challenges will be in a strong position to lead the country forward.
We need a more proportional electoral system to account for the fact that support for smaller parties is growing and it is unfair that they are not properly represented in parliament. However, we will not get this: The Labour Party will not let go of the hand that seems to be feeding it so well in this case, and the Conservatives will hope that they will be back in line earlier rather than later. In the meantime, the first-past-the-post system can help them.
Interview with Tim Bale (Marko Schlichting spoke with)
- Despite the damage caused by recent Conservative Party leaders, Tim Bale estimates that the Labor Party will secure a comfortable majority in the British House of Commons election.
- Tim Bale identifies taxes and spending, immigration, the leadership of Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, and the integrity of Conservative Party representatives as the main issues in the current election campaign in Great Britain.
- Nigel Farage's right-wing British Reform Party aims for less immigration, less "Wokeness," and less climate politics, claiming they can finance high public expenditures through tax cuts and efficiency improvements.
- The Conservative Party has faced criticism for its poor handling of the economy, high living costs, and public service crises, with many voters dissatisfied with the benefits of Brexit.
- After the election, the political landscape in the United Kingdom is expected to shift, with new challenges emerging and parties needing to adapt to the concerns of the electorate, including the economy, public services, and immigration, while the Brexit debate continues to influence British politics.
