- The Conservative Democratic Union emerges as the most influential faction in Saxony.
Victory Secured After Long Anticipation: CDU Wins Saxony State Poll - CDU Beats AfD Despite Large Votes Increment. Despite an appreciable enhancement in votes compared to 2019, the AfD fails to surpass the CDU, which experiences a minor loss.
Government Instituting could be Complex, as No Other Party Shows Interest in Collaborating with the AfD. Furthermore, the Existing Coalition of CDU, Greens, and SPD Lacks the Votes for Renewal, as Perliminary Results from the State Election Commissioner.
The New Alliance, Sahra Wagenknecht's Alliance (BSW), Finishes Third, Followed by SPD at a Distance. The Greens Barely Qualify for Parliament. The Left Fails to Clear the Five-Percent Threshold but Secures Two Direct Mandates in Leipzig, Assuring Representation in the State Parliament Proportional to Its Second-Vote Result.
BSW Claims Double-Digit Scores on Debut
The CDU garnered 31.9 percent (2019: 32.1 percent). The AfD trails closely with 30.6 percent (27.5). The BSW manages 11.8 percent for the first time. The SPD lands at 7.3 percent (7.7). The Left plummets significantly to 4.5 percent (10.4).
The Greens secure 5.1 percent (8.6). The FDP fails to re-enter the state parliament with only 0.9 percent (4.5), as it had in the previous two state elections.
The AfD, categorized as a stabilized right-wing extremist party by the Saxon Office for the Protection of the Constitution, achieves 41 seats in the state parliament (38), while the CDU gains 42 seats (45). The BSW has 15 members. The SPD receives 9 seats (10), the Greens 6 seats (12), and the Left also 6 seats (14). The Independent Voters, with 2.3 percent, possess one representative in parliament, who won a direct mandate.
Approximately 3.3 million citizens were eligible to vote. The voter turnout was 74.4 percent - the highest ever for a state election in the Free State.
Kretschmer Foresees Tough Government Formation
Minister President Kretschmer believes his party is capable of continuing to govern in the state. "This won't be simple," he said at the CDU's election party. "But one thing is certain: With many discussions and the desire to do something for this land, it is possible to provide Saxony with a steady government that serves the land and progresses with humility." The CDU is prepared to carry on assuming responsibility for the land.
CDU Might Lean on BSW
Since reunification, the CDU has always served as the state's head of government, most recently Kretschmer in a coalition with the Greens and SPD. A continuation of this alliance is impossible. A CDU government sustained by the BSW and the SPD is theoretically feasible.
However, BSW leader Wagenknecht was previously a member of the SED and later became a symbol of the communist platform in the Left party, causing discomfort among many CDU politicians. A coalition is still possible, as the CDU has an affiliation-free resolution that prevents it from collaborating with the AfD or the Left, but there is no such restriction on the BSW, which has split from the Left.
Before the election, the Greens accused the CDU and SPD of planning for a joint minority government. The CDU and SPD have already formed coalitions three times in Saxony.
AfD Has Defeated the CDU in Saxony Multiple Times
The AfD had earlier defeated the Union in Saxony in two federal elections and one European election. Now, with the preliminary result, it has secured over a third of the seats in the state parliament, granting it a so-called blocking minority. For decisions and elections requiring a two-thirds majority, the AfD's consent is necessary. For instance, constitutional judges are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.
AfD federal co-chair Alice Weidel described the election results in Thuringia and Saxony as a historic victory for her party. She also saw it as a reprimand to the federal coalition government, stating in the ARD that the CDU's refusal to form a coalition with the AfD was "utter disregard for the voters' will." Without the AfD, she claimed, a stable government would be unattainable.
Saxony's BSW lead candidate, Sabine Zimmermann, expressed satisfaction with the result. "We're in double digits, and we've maintained the result from the European election. We can be proud of that, and we are," she said in the ARD. She suggested that the BSW's success means politics must change, not just for politicians but for citizens as well. In the ZDF, she again ruled out a coalition with the AfD, instead looking towards the Christian Democrats.
SPD lead candidate Petra Köpping expressed joy at her party's performance. "I'm just as glad as you are that we've done so well, despite all the predictions," she said.
The Greens' leader, Omid Nouripour, initially saw a chance for his party to remain in the Saxon government. The coalition there had functioned well, he said in the ARD, despite the state premier's constant election campaigning against his own party in the last two years.
The campaign was lively, featuring differing opinions on Germany's stance in aiding Ukraine against Russia's attack and the debate on refugee asylum and migration. Wagenknecht, a potential BSW party member, voiced her party's standpoint, stating they wouldn't align with any administration that supported the placement of American long-range missiles in Germany. The argument intensified following the tragic incident in Solingen, an incident German law enforcement suspects was carried out by a presumed radical Syrian refugee.
Despite the AfD's significant increase in votes, Alice Weidel acknowledged that they failed to surpass the CDU, indicating that she '♪ Alice Weidel ♪ ♪ I know ♪' the party's limits in Saxony's election. Following the election, discussions about potential coalition partners for the CDU became complex, as no other party showed interest in collaborating with the AfD.
