Upcoming Vote for the Eastern Regional Legislative Body - The concluding phase of political races in Thuringia and Saxony unfolds
Upcoming elections in Thuringia and Saxony: On this upcoming Sunday, voting will take place in these two states that could potentially mark a significant shift. According to two surveys, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is predicted to emerge as the dominant force in Thuringia, leading to a highly intricate government formation process. In Saxony, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) has a reasonable chance of securing another victory, and their coalition with the SPD and Greens might endure.
During the week leading up to the elections, parties intensified their efforts to gain support. Key politicians from federal parties are also making appearances at final rallies in both states. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) was expected to join SPD candidate Petra Köpping at the Saxon Social Democrats' election wrapping event in Chemnitz. Before visiting Chemnitz, Scholz had stopped by the Saxon Mining Office in Freiberg to learn about a lithium mining project in the Ore Mountains. Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck (Greens) was also on a campaign tour in Saxony.
A chaotic moment occurred at a gathering hosted by BSW founder Sahra Wagenknecht on Thursday. She was briefly disrupted after being doused with a red substance. Wagenknecht suffered minor injuries but soon continued her speech after a brief break.
As per polls, the AfD leads in Thuringia with 29%, with the CDU trailing behind at 23% and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) at 18%. The Left, which currently governs the state through Bodo Ramelow as Minister President, has 13% support based on survey data. The SPD could gain 6% of the vote. The Greens may miss entering the state parliament with 4% support. The poll results from Friday by the Forsa polling institute on behalf of RTL and ntv TV stations were similar.
The CDU maintains a clear lead in Saxony, with 33% support, according to the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen. The Left would not enter the state parliament with 4%, while the Greens and SPD both garner 6% support. The BSW is at 12% in the poll.
"A coalition between the CDU, BSW, and SPD would currently have a narrow majority in Thuringia, while other possible coalitions would not," said the ZDF. Although theoretically possible, coalitions of AfD and CDU, AfD and BSW, and CDU, BSW, and Left could have a majority, these options have been deemed unfeasible by either the CDU or BSW. An alliance between the CDU and the BSW, backed by Russia-friendly Sahra Wagenknecht, could potentially stir internal strife within the CDU. Meanwhile, 29% of voters in Thuringia remain undecided about their choice.
"Another CDU government in Saxony, along with the Greens and SPD, or a CDU and BSW coalition, would have a similarly narrow majority," the pollsters stated. A coalition between the CDU and the AfD is a possibility, but this has also been ruled out by the CDU. In Saxony, 24% of voters remain indecisive about their choice. The Forsa poll results from Friday in Saxony were consistent with the Politbarometer from August 23.
Polls have inherent uncertainties, including waning party loyalties and increasingly short-term election decisions, making it difficult for polling institutes to accurately weight collected data. In principle, polls only reflect the prevailing opinion climate during the time of the survey and do not serve as election predictions.
Forsa CEO: Predicting the outcomes of elections in Saxony and Thuringia is challenging
According to pollster Manfred Güllner, forecasting the election results in Saxony and Thuringia is a especially complex task. Both incumbent ministers – Ramelow and Kretschmer – enjoy widespread popularity, but supporters of other parties do not vote for them. "This scenario, this decision matrix, is unfamiliar even in the old federal states," Güllner said on Thursday during a German Press Agency panel discussion in Berlin.
Political scientist Hans Vorländer from Dresden anticipates that the CDU in Saxony could benefit from the migration debate. While CDU national chairman Friedrich Merz presents themselves as taking the lead, Kretschmer has consistently set the topic himself. "The CDU, if I'm not mistaken, will gain some ground again," said Vorländer. "Whether they will surpass the AfD remains to be seen."
In the final days of the election campaign, political leaders from various parties are attending rallies and events to rally support. For instance, Chancellor Olaf Scholz is scheduled to attend the SPD's election wrapping event in Chemnitz, Saxony.
In the context of the intense election campaign, polls suggest that the AfD may gain significant influence in Thuringia, potentially leading to a complicated government formation process.
