The Century's Closest Presidential Contest Featured a Battle Between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
Polling since the September 10 confrontation between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris reveals that while the vice president appears to have established a modest national advantage over her Republican competitor, their contest remains within the range of margin of error and remains undecided. This is particularly true when evaluating the Electoral College.
The polling conducted by CBS News and NBC News on Sunday serves as an example. Despite their surveys demonstrating Harris' best performance to date, she only leads Trump by 4 and 5 points, respectively. In the CBS News/YouGov and NBC News polls from 2016 and 2020, Harris' largest leads were at least double her present position.
To shed more light on the recent Sunday polls, consider all the national surveys conducted since the debate. This includes the polls from ABC News/Ipsos, Fox News, and The New York Times/Siena College. According to the latest CNN Poll of Polls, Harris is ahead by an average of 3 points.
This has been consistent throughout the year: Neither candidate has managed to establish a 5-point lead in the national polling. This includes the period when President Joe Biden was the likely and then the presumptive Democratic nominee.
The fact that no one has attained a 5-point lead this cycle is noteworthy because such occurrences are quite uncommon. In close races, one candidate typically gains a significant advantage at some point. However, this year, it seems that most voters remain undecided.
Even Harris' impressive performance in the debate against Trump appeared to boost her lead by only a few points.
To find a similar race in which the major-party nominees remained within 5 points of each other in the average of national polling, you would have to return to the 1960 campaign. Every presidential election since then has had at least three weeks in which one candidate led by 5 points or more.
A 3-point edge in the national polls provides minimal assurance for Harris. Since 1948, the average margin between the polls on election day and the actual Election Day result has been approximately 3 points. Some years, such as 2020, have shown a higher error rate.
(As the election approaches, the average margin between the polls and the eventual result would, not surprisingly, be greater.)
Electoral College arithmetic
However, one of the primary reasons why this election remains unclear is that it is a contest for 270 electoral votes through the Electoral College rather than a strictly national election.
Trump seems to be in a stronger position in the Electoral College because of his constituency (i.e., White voters with no college degree are overrepresented in crucial battleground states). According to estimates by my former colleague Nate Silver, Harris would need to win the popular vote by more than 3 points to be considered the clear favorite in the Electoral College.
She has not yet achieved this goal.
Neither Harris nor Trump has a significant advantage when considering the state-level data. According to CNN's current race ratings, Harris starts with 225 electoral votes to Trump's 219. Seven states and the one electoral vote in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District remain undecided.
Harris appears to have a slight edge over Trump in three of the seven states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. This northern battleground strategy is similar to the one that Biden's campaign had planned during the spring.
However, the emphasis should be placed on the word "slightly" when discussing Harris' superiority in these states. In all of them, she is polling around 2 points above Trump, within the margin of error and without a clear leader.
Trump performs slightly better than Harris in two of these states: Arizona and Georgia. Just as with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin for Harris, Trump is averaging a slightly better position than her, polling around a point or two higher than her in these two states.
If the electoral votes were assigned to the candidate with a lead greater than 1 point in the polls, Harris would have 269 electoral votes to Trump's 246.
Nevada and North Carolina are also within a point and indeterminable, similar to the other five states. However, for the sake of this analysis, we will credit Trump with North Carolina, a state he has won twice before and in which the polling average has him marginally above Harris. This would increase his total to 262 electoral votes.
The limited data available on Nebraska's 2nd District suggests that Harris has a favorable position there. Nebraska is one of two states, along with Maine, that split its electoral votes based on congressional districts. Biden would have won the current version of the 2nd District by 6 points in 2020 – a significantly wider margin than the one observed in the seven battleground states this year. Many models and betting markets also favor Harris in this Omaha-area district.
If Harris manages to win Nebraska's 2nd District, this, combined with Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, would give her exactly 270 electoral votes. An incredibly narrow margin of victory!
However, there is a catch. Certain Nebraska Republicans, influenced by Trump, are advocating for a change in the state's method of allocating electoral votes to a winner-takes-all format.
No Democrat has won Nebraska at the presidential level since 1964.
If a unexpected rule adjustment occurred, it would elevate Trump to 263 electoral votes, while Harris remains at 269. This would result in Nevada and its 6 electoral votes becoming the deciding factor. The most recent survey, adhering to CNN's publication criteria, was conducted by SSRS, revealing Harris at 48% and Trump at 47%. This falls within the acceptable margin of error.
In essence, a Trump victory in Nevada is not an impossible scenario, which could lead to a 269-269 standoff.
Such a situation would transfer the presidential election to the US House, where each state delegation gets a vote. Considering the likelihood of Republicans preserving more delegations in the House by January, Trump might have an advantage.
Regardless of who takes Nevada, we could be in for a prolonged wait for the Silver State to tabulate its votes. And considering the duration it took in previous close competitions, we might be holding our breath for days, potentially with the presidency on the line.
To summarize, this presidential race seems to be as tight as it can get. A minor flip could significantly alter the outcome.
The tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the political arena is evident in the polling data, as they remain within the margin of error and neither has achieved a 5-point lead. Despite Harris' better performance in recent surveys, her lead over Trump is minimal compared to her position in previous polls.
The Electoral College arithmetic also contributes to the uncertainty, as Harris needs to win the popular vote by more than 3 points to gain an advantage in the Electoral College. Despite her slight leads in some battleground states, none of the candidates has a clear advantage in the state-level data, making this election a contest for 270 electoral votes.
