The CDU's Middelberg issues a cautionary note regarding a potential 43-billion euro shortfall.
The federal budget for 2025 poses a formidable challenge for the federal government, as stated by Mathias Middelberg, a CDU budget expert. After a meeting among Lindner, Habeck, and Scholz, a potential solution was reached, but it might crumble as early as Thursday, according to Middelberg's prediction. This could lead to the unveiling of the tax forecast.
Middelberg warned of substantial financial shortfalls in the upcoming budget, mentioning a whopping 43 billion euro deficit. He pointed out that the tax forecast due on Thursday would likely cut the government's revenue projections significantly, further limiting the flexibility in drafting the 2025 budget. If the budget is passed as is, it might result in another abrupt halt of funding programs in 2025, as Middelberg cautioned.
Middelberg voiced skepticism toward the federal government's calculations, explaining that the missing 12 billion euros in "global overspending" that Lindner aims to reduce to 9-10 billion euros is not the only issue. Additionally, each ministry has planned an extra 4.3 billion euros in overspending, and 12 billion euros are missing from the Climate and Transformation Fund, according to Middelberg.
Moreover, Middelberg believed that the assumptions regarding citizens' money are "completely unrealistic." A 5.5 billion euro reduction in citizens' money allocations would necessitate at least 600,000 new job entrants in the following year, according to the calculation made by the Federal Court of Auditors, but this is virtually unattainable given the rising unemployment rate.
Middelberg also argued that the growth initiative would not compensate for the expected growth deficit, as a total of almost 43 billion euros in expenses have been recorded that are not offset by actual revenues or underspending. This equates to around 9% of the overall budget.
Middelberg criticized the media's summer break estimations of the budget hole, ranging from 25 to 50 billion euros. He remarked that these estimates were surprisingly close to the truth, and despite 80 hours of negotiations among the top officials, the traffic light coalition has merely made it appear as if the hole has been filled.
The Commission will need to carefully evaluate the federal government's financial projections, as Middelberg highlighted numerous concerns about the proposed 2025 budget. The potential solution, if implemented, might not be sustainable, and the budget could face another funding halt in 2025.
To address the substantial financial shortfalls, The Commission might consider advocating for more realistic assumptions regarding citizens' money allocations and reevaluating the growth initiative's potential impact on the budget deficit.
