The budget crisis threatens to become an AfD election campaign aid
The Karlsruhe budget ruling could have a massive impact on next year's elections. This is because uncertainty triggered by change helps parties such as the AfD.
After the Karlsruhe ruling on the federal budget, there was talk of the "worst case scenario" for the traffic light system. Even if it will hardly comfort those in power: Worse is within the realms of possibility. A "worst case scenario" for liberal democracy is also conceivable, which could arise from this budget crisis. And it has to do with the AfD.
So far, the AfD has seemed marginalized in the debate on finances and has not played a major role. That could change quickly. After all, it is not only the federal government that has to deal with the consequences of the ruling for budgetary policy, but also CDU-led state governments. In Kiel, the black-green state government wants to declare an "emergency situation" for 2023 and 2024 this week in order to save billions already earmarked in the state budget. The AfD, on the other hand, is not responsible anywhere. However, it is possible that these days will decide whether it comes a big step closer to this goal.
We need to expand a little on this: The billions that the German government is now no longer allowed to spend were earmarked for the so-called transformation, i.e. the conversion of industry to climate-neutral production. The projects to be funded are primarily about protecting the business location, jobs and prosperity - and less about protecting the climate, as some people claim. Such an extensive restructuring of the industry leads to a great deal of uncertainty: for some employees, job requirements change, for others their long-standing jobs are completely eliminated and new ones are created. The locations where new jobs are created also depend on the framework conditions set by the state. In China and the USA, the state is investing heavily in climate-neutral technologies. Germany has just stumbled badly in the race with such countries.
Uncertainty helps the AfD
This is increasing uncertainty about the transformation in society, from which the AfD is already benefiting: A study by the German Economic Institute (IW) shows that the AfD has above-average strength in transformation regions - and with impressive consistency: in the 2021 federal elections, in the current nationwide survey high and also in the most recent state elections in Hesse and Bavaria, the AfD strongholds are in districts with a high proportion of employment in energy-intensive companies or the automotive industry. In the transformation regions of Bavaria, the AfD performed on average 3.1 percentage points better than in Bavaria as a whole. In the Hessian transition regions, the AfD even gained 2.6 percentage points.
After migration, transformation has become a mobilization topic for the AfD. According to Infratest-Dimap, the economy was the second most important issue for AfD voters in Bavaria and Hesse. Similarly, energy and climate policy was the second most important issue for AfD supporters nationwide this summer. In political science, the target group that the AfD is addressing with this topic is known as potential "modernization losers". These are not so much poor or unemployed people, but rather a section of the middle class that is facing the threat of decline in the face of structural change.
This is primarily a "sociotropic", an environment-related sense of threat. Translated, this means that fear of the future is not primarily a consequence of the personal economic situation, but depends more on the stress factors in the immediate environment - at work, at home, among acquaintances. The district of Sonneberg in Thuringia, also classified as a transformation region due to its energy-intensive sectors such as the glass industry, which is strongly represented there, is a good example of such stress factors: unemployment is low, but the population is old, wages are low, growth opportunities are limited and the infrastructure is weak. This is where the AfD celebrated its greatest success to date by winning the district council elections. Whether Bavaria, Hesse or Thuringia: The AfD relieves people of the pressure to change with multiple denials of reality.
Höcke could become prime minister without the FDP and Greens
The stress in the transition regions is likely to increase further following the ruling of the Constitutional Court and, accordingly, the demand for the AfD's offer of relief. According to the Federal Ministry of Economics, a whopping 50 billion in planned investments in the transformation of eastern Germany are now on the brink. This means that less than a year before the state elections in Thuringia, Saxony and Brandenburg, the budget crisis could become a decisive campaign aid for the AfD.
In Thuringia, the party is in first place in the polls with 34%. Over a third of the districts in the Free State are considered transformation regions. In a scenario in which the FDP and Greens do not make it over the five percent hurdle and the AfD gains a few more percentage points with the tailwind of the consequences of the Karlsruhe ruling, the far-right could win an absolute majority of seats in the Thuringian state parliament. Björn Höcke would then become Minister President. This is not an unlikely scenario today: the Thuringian FDP is currently at four percent in several institutes, the Greens are not doing much better and they also have the problem that they performed significantly below their national average in the transformation regions of Hesse and Bavaria in the last state elections, mirroring the AfD.
The ruling is already stirring up a great deal of uncertainty among investors, companies, workers and, above all, people who are already feeling the effects of inflation in their wallets. The reaction to the court ruling so far from the parties in the traffic light coalition, but also from the CDU/CSU, has been anything but stress-reducing. Cuts in social benefits or an end to the gas and electricity price brakes would increase the worries even further. The helplessness and irritability of those in power exudes a sense of emergency that goes far beyond the budget. All democratic forces are called upon to talk constructively about solutions that offer the transition regions and people with concerns about the future a concrete perspective. Otherwise, the budget crisis could become the next ramp for the AfD. Then democracy could be in dire straits.
Following the Federal Constitutional Court's ruling on the budget, concerns about the impact on budget policy have led to discussions within the traffic light coalition and CDU-led state governments, providing an opportunity for the AfD to make guest contributions to these debates. The uncertainty caused by the ruling and the potential budget cuts could further benefit the AfD in upcoming elections, especially in transformation regions where they already have high support.
Source: www.ntv.de
