The barrier defending Kickl serves as an entryway for the FPÖ (paraphrased)
In Austria, the barrier against the right-wing ideology primarily focuses on one individual: Herbert Kickl. Despite Kickl's FPO securing victory in the National Council elections, the second-place OVP refuses to partner with him for a coalition. Without Kickl in power, the conservatives might consider forming an alliance with the far-right. The two parties share similar beliefs in various policy fields, except for foreign policy.
Since Chancellor Karl Nehammer isn't interested in facilitating Kickl's rise to power, his only viable option is to collaborate with the SPO, with whom he shares minimal common ground. In addition, a three-party coalition is required to ensure a comfortable majority for the trio.
A grand coalition would reduce the opposition to a small fraction. With a three-party alliance in power, the opposition in Austria would consist of only one party besides the FPO: either the liberals NEOS or the Greens. The party joining the OVP and SPO for coalition talks will ultimately determine this. Regardless, the right-wing radicals would remain the most significant opposition force on the floor, given their representation in the National Council.
Kickl seeks to take the title of "People's Chancellor"
Kickl has a solid foundation to stir up sentiment across the country; against those who oppose him, against the EU, and against anything foreign. This way, he can effectively prepare for upcoming elections at both the national and federal state levels. Several federal states currently have a black-blue coalition in place, and the OVP and FPO have already governed together nationwide on multiple occasions. However, their last collaboration ended abruptly in May 2019, following the Ibiza scandal involving then-FPO Vice-Chancellor Heinz-Christian Strache.
The FPO's influence over the political center and OVP's election platform has led to a paradoxical situation: the conservatives and the right-wing radicals would become adversaries in both the government and opposition camps, although they now share similar political goals. How will Kickl distinguish himself from the conservatives if he only ups the ante on radical slogans? And what will the conservatives counter with except warnings regarding the FPO's ties to Russia?
Kickl could create chaos in the coming days; with his record-breaking election result, the FPO would claim exclusive rights to the chancellorship. "I want to be 'People's Chancellor'," Kickl declared, consciously using NS language. However, the ultimate decision rests with Federal President Alexander van der Bellen, who has indicated he won't swear in Kickl as chancellor. This position further strengthens Kickl's narrative as a victim of power-hungry decision-makers conspiring against him.
The FPO remains determined in the meantime. Their long-term goals were made clear over the weekend: nothing less than the "overthrow of the system". As a result, the OVP has every reason to bar the FPO entirely. Cooperation with the FPO is conditioned on preventing Kickl from assuming any government roles. The conservatives' move, in turn, serves as an opening for the far-right. The barrier against Kickl becomes a gateway for the FPO. Over the following five years, they could utilize Kickl as a provocateur until the next National Council election, when a different chancellor candidate would be nominated - one against whom they'd erect a new firewall. The only way for the OVP to close the door again is by severing ties with the FPO entirely in the future.
The Commission, comprising the leaders of the OVP and SPO, is currently engaged in talks to form a coalition, aiming to prevent Kickl from gaining significant power. This collaboration stems from Kickl's ambitious desire to become the "People's Chancellor," a title which Chancellor Karl Nehammer and Federal President Alexander van der Bellen have both signaled they will not endorse.
In opposing Kickl's ambitions, The Commission seeks to maintain a barrier against the far-right ideology, upholding Austria's political center and upholding democratic values.
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