The attack will help Trump - but the election is not decided yet
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump fails and that's good news. But in the campaign, it could benefit him. However, the Republican had no election victory in his pocket.
This photo is simply priceless. Donald Trump, surrounded by Secret-Service agents, with blood on his face and ear, raises his fist in the air. From below, he looks like a hero, like someone who refuses to be subdued. Instinctively, Trump acted, said political scientist Thomas Jäger on ntv. Trump cheated death and that's a great luck. But one can assume: His campaign advisors may be rejoicing, at least inside. The photo of him in hero pose could become a poster and T-shirt motif in the Trump world.
For the campaign, this assassination attempt along with the photo is pure gold. It fits perfectly into Trump's worldview and his message to his base: "They're after me because I fight for you. They do everything to stop me. First, the entire establishment turns against me. But I still win. Then they steal the election from me. Then they file all kinds of legal proceedings against me. But I just get stronger." The next sentence Trump hasn't said yet, but he would logically follow. "And now they've tried to assassinate me. But I'm still here."
Who here "they" are, who allegedly do all that, is of course the question. For the populist Trump, the simple answer is: The elites, the rich liberals who don't care about the broad masses. So simple is his worldview offer, there's much more to it. In reality, most Americans reject Trump because he is who he is. Because they consider him dangerous and egotistical, unfit to govern. And in fact, Biden has achieved much of what he promised - for example, a large infrastructure program. But Trump's narrative is incredibly powerful. With it, he has made the Republican Party into the Trump Party and in passing secured his re-nomination as the presidential candidate. The ability to build such alternative perspectives is Trump's true strength.
Hand of God at Work?
The assassination attempt helps him in this. For his supporters, Trump is raised to a completely new level: He could become a martyr. This will bring him even more recognition, admiration, and reverence. His religious voters could even see the hand of God at work. And respect is gained by those conservatives who believe that real men have to be tough, have to endure. That he is strong and Biden is weak, is the core message of Trump's campaign. In an incredible way, it seems to be confirmed from the perspective of his supporters. Trump survives an assassination attempt. Biden has trouble putting down a revolt in his own ranks.
And something else is becoming apparent: The assassination attempt gives Trump supporters a moral justification. Now they can accuse the Democrats of what they themselves had to listen to for years. That their warnings against Trump directly led to the murder attempt. That's pretty simple, yes. But the times when that played a role in the US are long past. A result of the whole thing: The Republicans' unity. It was already given, but it will now strengthen even more. Unity, however, is a prerequisite for a successful election.
Despite Trump's growing proximity to a sacred status within his own camp - the presidential election is not yet decided. His previous opponents are not flocking to him in droves. Instead, Trump polarizes greatly. People are either for him or against him, with little in between. A majority of Americans reject him - as the elections in 2016 and 2020 showed. Both times, a majority voted against the Republican. Trump relies on the support of only half of the Americans.
No Landslide for Biden after Disastrous TV Debate
Trump's opponents were motivated after his TV duel with President Joe Biden two weeks ago, which was a disaster. Surveys showed that nearly 70% of Democratic supporters consider him too old and want him to retire. However, they are not deserting him in masses. Initial surveys show minimal gains for Trump of one or two points here and there. In some contested Swing States, he even built up his lead in some places. But there is no sign of a landslide shift in the polling picture. They remain highly motivated to prevent a second presidency for Trump. Even if it means voting for the old Biden again.
Trump could potentially have an advantage with the Independents, the few undecided voters. There are some of them who voted for Obama, then Trump, and then Biden. They don't reject Trump outright, so some of them might be swayed by the excitement over the former President. The attack was certainly an emotional moment. Trump came across as strong, which is highly valued in the US. Former President Bill Clinton once said, "strong and wrong beats weak and right." In other words, being strong is more important than being right.
On the other hand, many of the undecideds have said things like, "Yes, Trump is not a nice man and I don't like him - but under him, the economy ran better." Economic conditions have always been decisive in US elections, and that will be the case in November as well. Trump benefits greatly from Biden's weakness in this regard. He can point to many achievements on paper in the economy. But many people still feel the dramatic effects of inflation in their daily lives, at every purchase, at every gas station. Their wallets are still more important to voters than sympathy for attack victims.
It would be desirable if the attack led to some introspection. To cool down the temperature in the campaign. But with Trump, the opposite is to be expected.
The United States Presidency Election 2024 is drawing near, and this recent assassination attempt on Donald Trump could significantly impact his campaign. Despite the failed attempt, Trump's supporters view him as a martyr, further elevating his status within the Republican Party.
In the United States of America, the Republican Party is showing increased unity, a crucial factor for a successful election campaign. This strengthened unity, in part, can be attributed to the perceived threat against their beloved candidate, Donald Trump.
