The attack will help Trump - but how much?
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump fails and that's good news. But in the campaign, it could benefit him. However, the Republican had no election victory in hand.
This photo is simply priceless. Donald Trump, surrounded by Secret-Service agents, with blood on his face and ear, raises his fist in the air. From below, he looks like a hero, like someone who refuses to be subdued. Instinctively, Trump acted, said political scientist Thomas Jäger on ntv. Trump cheated death and that's a great luck. But one can assume: His campaign advisors may be rejoicing, at least internally. The photo of him in hero pose could become a poster and T-shirt motif in the Trump world.
For the campaign, this assassination attempt, along with the photo, is pure gold. It fits perfectly into Trump's worldview and his message to his base: "They're after me because I fight for you. They do everything to stop me. First, the entire establishment is against me. But I still win. Then they steal the election from me. Then they file all kinds of legal proceedings against me. But I just get stronger." The next sentence Trump hasn't said yet, but he would logically follow up. "And now they've tried to assassinate me. But I'm still here."
Who are "they" who allegedly do all that, is of course the question. For the populist Trump, the simple answer is: The rich liberals who don't care about the broad masses. Trump's worldview offer is that simple, there's much more to it. In reality, most Americans reject Trump because he is who he is. Because they see him as dangerous and egotistical, unfit to govern. And in fact, Biden has achieved much of what he promised - for example, a large infrastructure program. But Trump's narrative is incredibly powerful. With it, he has turned the Republican Party into the Trump Party and in passing, collected the re-nomination as the presidential candidate. The ability to build alternative perspectives is Trump's true strength.
Hand of God at Work?
The assassination attempt helps him in this regard. For his supporters, Trump is raised to a completely new level: He could become a martyr. This will bring him even more recognition, admiration, and reverence. His religious voters could even see the hand of God at work. And respect is gained by those conservatives who believe that real men have to be tough and endure. That he is strong and Biden is weak, is the core message of Trump's campaign. In an incredible way, this now seems to be confirmed from the perspective of his supporters. Trump survives an assassination attempt. Biden has trouble putting down a revolt in his own ranks.
And something else is becoming apparent: The assassination attempt gives Trump supporters moral support. Now they can accuse the Democrats of what they themselves had to listen to for years. That their warnings against Trump led directly to the murder attempt. That's pretty simple, yes. But the times when that played a role in the US are long past. The result of all this: The Republicans are closing ranks. They were already united, but they will become even more so. Unity is a prerequisite for a successful election.
Despite Trump's growing proximity to a saintly status within his own camp, the presidential election is not yet decided. His previous opponents are not flocking to him in droves. Instead, Trump polarizes greatly. People are either for him or against him, with little in between. The majority of Americans reject him, as the elections of 2016 and 2020 showed. Both times, a majority voted against the Republican. Trump relies on the support of half of the Americans at most.
No Landslide for Biden After Disastrous TV Debate
Trump's opponents were motivated after the TV duel with President Joe Biden two weeks ago, which turned out to be a disastrous night for Biden. Surveys showed that nearly 70% of Democratic supporters view him as too old and want him to retire. However, they are not deserting him in masses. Initial surveys show minimal gains for Trump of one or two points here and there. In some contested swing states, he even built on his lead. However, there is no sign of a landslide shift in the polling landscape. Apparently, they remain highly motivated to prevent a second presidency for Trump. Even if it means voting for the old Biden once again.
Trump could potentially gain an advantage among independents, the few swing voters. There are indeed some of them who voted for Obama, then Trump, and now Biden. They do not reject Trump outright, so some might be swayed by the excitement over the former president. The attack was indeed an emotionally charged moment. Trump came across as strong, which is highly valued in the US. Former President Bill Clinton once said, "strong and wrong beats weak and right." In other words, appearing strong is more important than being right.
On the other hand, many undecided voters have said things like, "Yes, Trump is not a nice man and I don't like him, but under him, the economy ran better." The economic situation is always a decisive factor in US elections, and it will be in November as well. Trump benefits greatly from Biden's weakness in this regard. Biden has many achievements on paper in the economy, but many people still feel the dramatic effects of inflation at every purchase, every fill-up. Their wallets are still more important to voters than sympathy for attack victims.
It would be desirable if the attack led to some introspection. To cool down the temperature in the campaign. However, the opposite is to be expected from Trump.
In the United States Presidency Election 2024, the assassination attempt on Donald Trump could potentially benefit his campaign, as his supporters might view him as a martyr and gain even more recognition and admiration. Despite this, Joe Biden still has a strong base and has achieved much of what he promised, such as a large infrastructure program.
The failure of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump might further polarize the American public, with people either supporting or opposing him. There are some voters who might be swayed by the excitement over Trump due to his strong appearance following the attack, as former President Bill Clinton once said, "strong and wrong beats weak and right."
Trump's opponents were motivated after the disastrous TV debate with President Joe Biden but haven't deserted him in masses. Biden still has a strong base, and even if some swing voters might be swayed by Trump, the situation in the economy is a decisive factor in US elections, and many people still feel the effects of inflation.
