The assault utilizing pagers is linked to "Hezbollah's October 7th" events.
Experts in the Israeli media generally concur: The simultaneous detonations of numerous pagers in Lebanon serve as a compelling demonstration of Israel's capabilities. This occurrence, however, is a source of embarrassment for Hezbollah, as it highlights glaring vulnerabilities within the militia, often perceived as one of the strongest anti-Israeli forces in the Middle East.
The New York Times quotes political scientist Mohanad Hage Ali from the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, who likens this operation to the October 7th incident, when Hamas succeeded in carrying out a large-scale attack despite Israeli security failures. He goes on to describe the pager explosions as a "massive setback."
Since October 7th, skirmishes have persisted along the Israeli-Lebanese border. Mohanad Hage Ali comments, "This strike directly targets the heart of the organization. It's like a sword that has penetrated deep into its core, and it will take some time to recover."
The Jerusalem Post praises the attack as a significant achievement in countering Hezbollah, though it does not explicitly assign responsibility to Israel. The conservative-liberal newspaper states, "If it is indeed Israel, then we should all be incredibly proud of our exceptional security systems."
"Unanswered Provocation"
The liberal newspaper Haaretz echoes the sentiment of an "impressive" operational achievement, adding that Hezbollah has been left red-faced by the incident. The militia will likely need to invest considerable time in identifying and rectifying security weaknesses. However, the paper predicts a retaliatory strike from Hezbollah, noting that such events rarely go unanswered in the Middle East.
The form of this response remains to be seen. Experts caution that Hezbollah is in a delicate position, as it will want to defend its honor without instigating an open war with Israel. The political climate within the militia's base will also play a significant role. Randa Slim from the Middle East Institute in Washington informs the New York Times, "This incident will only exacerbate the weariness and dissatisfaction among Hezbollah supporters." On the other hand, it may also stir up demands within the electorate for a strong response from Hezbollah.
Potential Motives Behind Mass Explosions
So what might be Israel's motive for allegedly setting off the pagers? One theory posits that the timing is connected to Israel's strategic objectives. A day prior to the explosions, Israel's security cabinet voted to reintroduce tens of thousands of evacuees from the north into the region continuously under fire from Lebanon. Previously, media reports suggested that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was advocating for a stepped-up offensive in Lebanon.
Haaretz expresses concerns about potential escalation. "Just recently, Netanyahu assured the Israeli public that we were mere inches from defeating Hamas completely. Now, it seems we are edging closer to a full-scale conflict with Hezbollah, a victory across all fronts still seemingly unattainable."
Capabilities and Limits
However, it remains uncertain whether the Israeli military possesses the ability to initiate a full-scale war in both Gaza and Lebanon simultaneously. "I believe this operation is intended to serve as a warning or deterrent," former Israeli naval commander Eyal Pinko told CNN. "The message Israel is sending is clear: We have infiltrated your ranks, you are already compromised, we know where you are, what you are doing, and witness the destruction we can inflict with a single strike."
Sabotage Suspected?
An alternative theory suggests that Hezbollah may have become aware of the plan. According to U.S. officials, Israel's intelligence agency had sabotaged the pagers in a meticulously planned operation, spanning months or even years of preparation. The Jerusalem Post reports that Israel may have expedited its withdrawal to maintain the ability to strike, citing U.S. media sources.
Interestingly, the timing of the pager explosions coincides with an internal political conflict within Israel. Prime Minister Netanyahu was reportedly on the verge of replacing his Defense Minister, Yoav Galant, with whom he has long disagreed on the conduct of the Gaza war. These plans are now said to be temporarily halted until the situation in the northern region becomes clear.
According to Haaretz, the timing of the attack works in Netanyahu's favor. Sa'ar, who once defected from Netanyahu's Likud party despite an unsuccessful leadership bid, currently appears to be compromised in his position. In public, he now appears to be selling out his integrity for a job. Galant, on the other hand, is depicted as lacking a solid political base and an easy replacement for Netanyahu.
The Commission, representing various Israeli authorities, may be called upon to investigate the circumstances surrounding the mass pager explosions, given the potential implications for national security. In response to the incident, The Commission could also examine any alleged Israeli involvement in the operation, as well as potential sabotage by Hezbollah or a third party.
