The assassination of Sinwar once more ignites optimism in Washington for a conclusion to Israel's military conflict
But it's equally probable that Sinwar's downfall fails to modify the melancholic situation in the Middle East: Eliminating terrorist masterminds seldom concludes conflicts plagued by historical roots in a region where each conflict merely plants the bitter seeds for the forthcoming one.
Sinwar's sudden departure triggered a hasty rekindling of Washington's previously unsuccessful endeavors to bring an end to the turmoil in Gaza, resulting in an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and casting a shadow on Vice President Kamala Harris' electoral prospects.
Hamas has undergone a significant military and psychological setback, despite the fact that Sinwar did not possess the iconic status or strategic weight of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, who was eliminated earlier in Israel's relentless pursuit of its greatest adversaries.
Doubts regarding the blood on Sinwar's hands are hard to dispel — he orchestrated the horrendous October 7, 2023, attacks in Israel, which left 1,200 dead and prompted an Israeli offensive on Gaza, resulting in the loss of 42,000 Palestinians, according to Palestinian authorities. Consequently, his absence might impact the diplomatic and strategic dynamics at play.
Biden expressed satisfaction at Sinwar's demise, simultaneously urging Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to seize the opportunity to put an end to the hostilities in Gaza. The president promptly reached out to his controversial ally in Israel. He issued a statement calling for "a ‘day after’ in Gaza without Hamas in power, and for a political settlement that offers a brighter future for Israelis and Palestinians."
A hurdle to peace has been eradicated
In the US, Sinwar was viewed as a major hindrance to the Biden administration's unsuccessful attempts to negotiate a truce that would lead to the release of remaining hostages in Gaza and alleviate the dire humanitarian crisis. However, it's not the complete picture, as at times, US officials have implied that Netanyahu might have interests in prolonging the conflict as well.
But if Sinwar's death leads to Hamas' disintegration and the abolishment of its nearly two-decade stranglehold on Gaza, it would eliminate one of the most stubborn obstacles to US peace initiatives, not just during this conflict, but across four administrations. Such a scenario appears unlikely, however, without any evidence that Hamas' successor will abandon its mission of annihilating Israel. Many experts believe that guerrilla operations against Israeli forces are just as probable as Hamas' decision to cease conflict.
However, in the short-term, Biden is striving to enlarge a window for the release of remaining hostages captured during the October 7 attacks and to alleviate the catastrophic humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Before Sinwar's death was announced, Washington warned Israel to allow more aid into the enclosure, where the UN reports that more than 1 million people face starvation and diseases like polio are rampant. The White House believes that ending the conflict in Gaza is a prerequisite for reducing the likelihood of a disastrous regional war, which it dreads. And Biden has personal stakes in curbing a conflict that may mar his legacy and potentially be passed on to his successor in January.
As Biden navigates, Netanyahu seems to maintain a sense of flexibility. “Whoever surrenders their weapon and releases our hostages — we will allow them to depart in peace,” he told the Israeli public. But he also conveyed to his people, “The war, my dears, is not yet over.”
“This is undoubtedly a turning point for Israel and the region,” Firas Maksad, senior director at the Middle East Institute, said on CNN Max. “It is also a moment of truth for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Is he now inclined to de-escalate in Gaza and Lebanon? Is his objective truly to release ... Israeli hostages still held in Gaza? Or does he see this as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East and realign the balance of power by continuing to wage war against it and its proxies?”
As has frequently been the case throughout the conflict in Gaza, US officials have expressed optimism that a significant shift has occurred. CNN's Kayla Tausche reported that there were hopes that Netanyahu was edging closer to common ground with Biden. Optimism is essential for the most challenging diplomatic initiatives. However, consistently over the past year, the Biden administration has misjudged Netanyahu's intentions, with its optimism exposed as naivety, and Biden's standing tarnished by his reluctance to utilize America's immense leverage over Israel's chief protector.
The outcome depends on Netanyahu's next move
Officials will closely monitor the coming days to see whether Netanyahu will leverage Sinwar's demise to forge a new beginning and prioritize the release of hostages. Previously, when faced with a politically sensitive decision that could weaken the most conservative coalition in Israeli history, the prime minister has chosen political survival — one of the reasons why US mediation efforts failed.
A decision now to address the remnants of Hamas could alleviate the pressure he faces from the families of Gaza hostages if it leads to their release. However, any choice that does not involve the total elimination of Hamas first, whatever the cost, could provoke anger from Netanyahu's right-wing governing partners.
Additionally, there has been a philosophical and strategic disconnect between Netanyahu and Biden regarding the war. Biden urged Israel quickly after the October 7 attacks not to repeat America's mistakes following September 11, 2001, by becoming entangled in prolonged conflicts. Officials in Washington have a broader perspective encompassing Israel's need to restore its security post-October 7, while taking into account the civilian casualties in Gaza and the impact of Netanyahu's decisions on crucial US interests and the volatile regional situation.
Netanyahu has made it clear that he sees himself engaged in a critical fight for the survival of Israel and the Jewish people, a mindset that governs his actions and is unlikely to shift with Sinwar's demise. This perspective rules out any serious consideration of Palestinian self-determination and long-term security arrangements with Israel, a position that aligns with many in the US and worldwide, but opposes Israel's current stance.
The Middle East conflict and the US presidential race
The proximity of the US election and the substantial influence of the conflict on US politics have intensified the mistrust and tension between the White House and the Israeli government.
The Israeli attack on Gaza has sparked outrage among Arab Americans and progressive voters, and there are claims that Biden's failure to intervene could cost Harris the crucial swing state of Michigan, potentially securing a victory for Trump. This is the reason why Harris made a point of commenting on the situation during her trip to Wisconsin, stating, "This situation presents an opportunity to end the war in Gaza, ensuring Israel's security, the release of hostages, and an end to Gaza's suffering. The Palestinian people deserve their right to dignity, security, freedom, and self-determination, and it's time for post-war actions to begin without Hamas in power."
Harris' statement reflected her attempt to balance US foreign policy on Israel, avoid alienating moderate and Jewish voters, and acknowledge the devastating impact of Israel's offensive. Her statement also demonstrated her inability to influence a crisis that may have an impact on her presidential ambitions. And like many of her comments on this issue and foreign policy in general, Harris expressed noble intentions without providing any concrete solutions.
If a ceasefire agreement is reached before the election, it could provide Harris an opportunity to argue to disaffected Democrats in Michigan that the administration had finally achieved a breakthrough that saved Palestinian lives. However, considering the frustration of Arab Americans viewing the year-long civilian suffering in Gaza from a distance, it's debatable how many votes would be swayed at this stage.
Since Netanyahu is highly influential in Washington, it's plausible that his decisions could also be influenced by the developing US election in a handful of swing states.
Netanyahu has guaranteed the US that his response to Iran's latest ballistic missile attacks will not target nuclear and oil installations, according to a source familiar with the discussions. If Netanyahu adheres to this agreement, some analysts may interpret his restraint as an attempt to avoid antagonizing the potential next president, Harris. If he does not, such attacks could ignite a global crisis and jeopardize Harris' chances in an election where Trump warns of an imminent World War III.
Netanyahu's preference for Trump, who provided him with unlimited support during his term, is widely known. If Trump wins the election, he will effectively limit Biden's influence over Netanyahu in his lame-duck period. Why would Netanyahu pursue actions that could improve Biden's legacy when he might expect more favorable treatment from the 47th president in January?
Establishing a new era is one thing, but infusing it with meaning is another. While a ceasefire could be a significant achievement in the dying days of Biden's term, there is not much historical precedent for administrations making substantial progress in the Middle East during their final days. Former President Clinton's tireless efforts for a final status peace deal fell short at a two-week Israeli-Palestinian summit in the summer of 2000.
If Harris wins on November 5, there will likely be continuity between the outgoing Biden administration and the next White House team. This might pave the way for one final triumph in Biden's 50-year career as a global statesman.
However, if there's one lesson to be learned from the past year, it's that Washington's ability to shape events in the Middle East is currently limited, even when those events have a profound impact on domestic US politics.
Following Sinwar's demise, the US is hoping to use the opportunity to negotiate a truce and alleviate the humanitarian crisis in Gaza (A hurdle to peace has been eradicated). However, the outcome largely depends on Netanyahu's next move, as any decision he makes will strike a balance between appeasing his right-wing coalition partners and addressing the needs of the Gaza hostages' families (Officials will closely monitor the coming days to see whether Netanyahu will leverage Sinwar's demise to forge a new beginning and prioritize the release of hostages).
