- The Alternative for Germany party secures its initial victory in the Thuringian parliamentary elections.
The Alternative for Germany (AfD) triumphs, the red-red-green coalition crumbles: A standoff is brewing in Thuringia following the AfD's record-breaking performance in the state election. With all votes tallied, it's clear that neither the AfD nor the Left can command a majority in the state legislature without the other's support. A potential coalition of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), and Social Democrats (SPD) would only control half the seats.
Such a coalition would likely still need the Left's tolerance, which has not ruled out the possibility. Thuringia's CDU leader Mario Voigt declined to comment on whether a government he headed would accept the Left's tolerance. The CDU has historically sworn off coalitions with both the Left and the AfD.
The AfD secured first place in a state election for the first time since its inception in 2013. However, no other parties are willing to team up with it. The Left, spearheaded by Minister President Bodo Ramelow, sustained substantial losses and dropped to fourth place. The SPD reclaimed its seat in the state legislature, while the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP) did not.
All votes have been counted: significant losses for the traffic light parties
The AfD garnered 32.8 percent, a significant leap from the previous election (2019: 23.4 percent). The CDU improved to 23.6 percent (21.7). The BSW debuted with 15.8 percent, leaving the Left, from which it split, in the dust. The Left plummeted to 13.1 percent (31.0).
The parties of the Berlin traffic light government suffered substantial setbacks: the SPD slipped to 6.1 percent (8.2), the Greens to 3.2 percent (5.2), and the FDP to 1.1 percent (5.0).
The AfD clinched 32 seats (22), the CDU 23 (21), the BSW 15, the Left 12 (29), and the SPD 6 (8). Combined, the CDU, BSW, and SPD would control 44 seats, short of a majority.
About 1.66 million people were called to vote. The turnout was 73.6 percent, an increase from 64.9 percent in 2019.
Ramelow: Will aid in government formation
The previous red-red-green minority coalition, which relied on CDU cooperation, has no chance of being renewed. Ramelow, who has steered the Free State for a decade, now faces the task of forming a government with the CDU's top candidate, Voigt. "The one with the most votes in the democratic spectrum should kick things off, invite everyone. I will back everyone who helps us achieve a democratic majority in parliament," said the Left politician in ARD.
Despite the unanimous rejection by other parties, AfD's top candidate, Höcke, announced plans for coalition talks. Despite missing a direct mandate in his Greiz II constituency, Höcke remains in the legislature via the state list.
The BSW could prove pivotal
The BSW could exert significant influence given the current circumstances. Federal party leader Wagenknecht, who did not run herself, expressed her intent to participate in any coalition negotiations. She hoped that the BSW, alongside the CDU and, based on current numbers, also the SPD, could forge a strong government in Thuringia, Wagenknecht said during the election-night celebration in Erfurt.
The party founder, who was once a member of the Socialist Unity Party (SED) and later an icon of the communist wing in The Left, caused discomfort among CDU politicians.
Wagenknecht reiterated her conditions for her party's entrance into the state government. Many were swayed by the issue of peace and opposed the stationing of US intermediate-range missiles in Germany, as intended by the federal government, she said during an election celebration in Erfurt. A state government should consider this wish of the people and advance it at the federal level.
CDU federal general secretary Carsten Linnemann dismissed Wagenknecht's demands to make peace policy a topic in possible joint government formations in Saxony and Thuringia. "I must say, in Erfurt, world politics are not crafted, but rather it's about education policy, economic policy, internal security, the issues that truly matter to people," he said during ZDF coverage.
CDU top candidate and state chairman Voigt announced plans to approach the SPD and its top candidate Georg Maier. Regarding the BSW, he said, "We will also engage in dialogue there." He left open the possibility of the Left tolerating the government. "Now, it's primarily about finding a stable path for Thuringia to bring together the political majority ratios in parliament so that the issues can be tackled," Voigt told the German Press Agency in the evening in Erfurt.
Election campaign tensions ran high
The election campaign atmosphere was tense. One point of contention was Russia's attack on Ukraine and Germany's role as Kyiv's ally.
Since the AfD won more than one-third of the seats in the Thuringian state legislature, it now boasts a so-called blocking minority: Decisions and elections requiring a two-thirds majority must have its approval. For example, constitutional judges are elected by parliament with a two-thirds majority.
In the aftermath of the election, it became evident that the CDU, led by Mario Voigt, might require the Left's tolerance to form a majority in Thuringia's state legislature, despite historically swearing off coalitions with them. The Left politician Ramelow, who sustained substantial losses, expressed his willingness to aid in government formation.
Given their strong showing in the election, the BSW, led by Federal party leader Wagenknecht, could hold significant influence in coalition negotiations, as their support could potentially help the CDU and SPD secure a majority.
