- The alliance between CDU, SPD, and the car-attendant's party – what's the situation?
The predicament is severe, and the pool of plausible allies is limited: In Thuringia, discussions about a potential coalition with the Wagenknecht party BSW have been going on for weeks now. What's the deal with these alliances, and will anything actually materialize in the end? A peculiar alliance between CDU, BSW, and SPD seems to be Thuringia's only hope for a majority government, according to surveys. After nearly five years of a minority government, political stability has become a crucial theme in the state's election campaign. Even two weeks before the September 1st state election, potential partners are subtly communicating with each other, swinging between insults and affections, calmness and hysteria.
The issue is: According to surveys, a majority without the involvement of AfD or BSW is not achievable in Thuringia. Since no one wants to form a coalition with the AfD, which is labeled as right-wing extremist by the state's Office for the Protection of the Constitution, all attention is now on the Wagenknecht party.
BSW lays down the initial ground rules
The back-and-forth between attacking and flirting was clear last week in a TV roundtable that included BSW's top candidate, Katja Wolf. "I've known Frau Wolf for a long time, and some pragmatic discussions took place today," said a visibly tense Georg Maier, the SPD's top candidate in Thuringia. But if BSW thinks it can set conditions that cannot be met in Thuringia, "you're just making things harder for the people." "Let's just see what we can accomplish together, with the democrats!"
Wagenknecht had made her stance on war and peace a condition for her party's participation in the government. Maier called it extortion, and the CDU's top candidate, Mario Voigt, has since rejected any external meddling. This topic could serve as a potential divider if coalition negotiations between the three parties take place. Nevertheless, the federal parties of CDU and SPD are giving their state associations in Saxony and Thuringia full autonomy. Most recently, SPD chairwoman Saskia Esken reiterated that the state associations do not require guidance from the federal level on this issue.
Erfurt political scientist André Brodocz views the conditions set by BSW as signals to the party's voters and undecideds. "I believe these are conditions that reassure voters that the party is firm in its beliefs," he says. At the state level, it should be possible to find solutions during coalition negotiations. "It's a marker that's been set, but it's not an insurmountable barrier."
Alliances with AfD
Such an alliance could be risky for the CDU, given Wagenknecht's past as the symbol of the Communist Platform of the Left Party, even holding some Stalinist views in her early years, and her past membership in the SED. Thuringia's Minister President Bodo Ramelow (Left) often stresses this. For him, it's a contradiction that the CDU rules out a coalition with his Left party but is open to one with the Wagenknecht party at the state level. A coalition with BSW in the federal government would also likely not be met with universal approval among Christian Democrats.
Lastly, statements from BSW representatives about handling the AfD caused a stir. In a TV round, Wolf didn't rule out voting for AfD proposals if they were reasonable. However, expert Brodocz argued this does not open the door to BSW-AFD collaboration, as the BSW has clearly defined its boundaries. Additionally, coalition agreements typically include rules against voting with other parties.
A Tight Race for Second Place
Brodocz finds statements about informally tolerating a minority government more intriguing. In such a scenario, if CDU lead candidate Mario Voigt pursues a minority government without BSW involvement, the Wagenknecht party could, along with the AfD, pass laws in parliament - bypassing the government. This is similar to what Ramelow's red-red-green coalition experienced, with the CDU repeatedly using AfD votes to pass their own laws and even lower taxes. Brodocz suggests BSW's AfD statements could be a signal to the CDU that they're pushing for a formal collaboration. The message: Rather govern with us, or we'll outmaneuver you in parliament.
In surveys, the CDU is in second place behind the AfD with values between 21 and 23 percent. The BSW trails behind with 19 to 21 percent. Brodocz doesn't rule out Katja Wolf overtaking Mario Voigt. A two-percentage-point gap is within the margin of error for such surveys. "That means it could already be that way in reality."
The following discussions about a potential coalition with the Wagenknecht party BSW have been ongoing for several weeks, and if BSW thinks it can set conditions that cannot be met in Thuringia, it may be making things more difficult for the people.
The initial ground rules set by BSW are seen as signals to the party's voters and undecideds, and while they may be a marker, they are not considered an insurmountable barrier during coalition negotiations at the state level.
