The AfD's many problems - and the big but

The AfD finds itself in an unusual double situation before its party conference in Essen. On the one hand, it is performing well in polls. On the other hand, it is far from the status of other radical right parties in Europe.

The list of problems that the AfD party conference this weekend should address is long. It remains to be seen whether Essen was a wise choice as a venue. In Essen, the AfD underwent a significant shift to the right in 2015 and broke with party founder Bernd Lucke. Since then, Bjoern Hoecke has dominated the party.

There were also other reasons against Essen. The environment is not particularly AfD-friendly. In the northern part of the city, the AfD achieved eastern German results in the European election. However, in North Rhine-Westphalia as a whole, it only came in fourth place. Several counter-demonstrations against the party conference in the Grugahalle have been announced.

Originally, the Essen city council had demanded a self-commitment declaration from the AfD that no banned slogans could be spread at their conference. If this had happened, the AfD would have had to pay 500,000 euros. The party rejected this. The Administrative Court of Gelsenkirchen ruled in its favor.

A success for the AfD in times when it is not going so well. However, in Essen, the co-leadership of Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla is supposed to be confirmed. Above all, Chrupalla has reason to worry about his election results - there are efforts within the AfD to switch to a single leader, which would be Weidel, not him.

An overview of the many problems of the AfD - with a big but at the end.

Stress with first and second place in the European election

Investigations against Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron, the first and second places of the AfD in the European election, are still ongoing. The politicians are accused of receiving money from Russia and China (Krah) or Russia (Bystron). Both deny the allegations, but they were largely excluded from the AfD campaign. After the election, Krah was kicked out of the AfD group in the new European Parliament with a narrow majority. For Bystron, the group granted him the presumption of innocence.

Nazi sound in the campaign

Krah caused a stir not only with legal troubles during the European election campaign. In an interview with an Italian newspaper, he trivialized the SS, a terrorist organization during the Nazi dictatorship that played a central role in the Holocaust. About this organization, Krah said, "I will never say that everyone who wore an SS uniform was automatically a criminal."

Break with the ID-Faction

These comments were the last straw. Until then, the MEPs of the AfD had been part of the "Identita et Democrazia" (ID) faction, a coalition of right-wing parties in the EU Parliament. The central party in this faction is the French Rassemblement National (RN) of Marine Le Pen.

For Le Pen, who has been trying for years to give her party a more respectable image, Krah's comments were a problem. At the same time, they provided an opportunity to demonstrate that she had broken with the extremist roots of her party: She ensured that the AfD left the ID faction. Without a faction, MEPs have less influence and less money in the European Parliament.

The uncle problem

The parties of Marine Le Pen and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni belong to different factions in the European Parliament, but they share one thing in common: they are successful. Le Pen is hoping for a win in the upcoming French parliamentary elections this and next Sunday. Meloni is already in power. This was achieved by these parties moderating their tone (whether they have become less of a threat to democracy as a result is another question). In comparison, the AfD is the awkward uncle, with whom no one wants to talk at the family gathering.

A new faction is to be formed

In addition to the ID faction led by Le Pen, there is also a European-level party alliance with the same name, to which the AfD still belongs. They want to prevent expulsion through withdrawal. In a resolution for the party conference in Essen, it is stated that the AfD should "from now on act self-confidently European politically and no longer make lazy compromises."

New leadership role? That could be difficult. In addition to the ID faction led by Le Pen and the European Conservative and Reformists (ECR) faction, to which Meloni's party belongs, there would then be another right-wing faction. It would be a symbol: In the European Parliament, the AfD began in the ECR faction and is now to the right of the ID faction. Instead of professionalizing, it is going further to the right.

Professionalization is still just a plan

At the party conference in Essen, the AfD is to decide, according to the party leadership, that from 2025 there will be a general secretary. According to "Stern," behind this plan is a French model: As Marine Le Pen professionalized and "baptized" her party, Alice Weidel, in conjunction with Bundestag deputy Sebastian Münenmaier and his network, is to reform and modernize the AfD. Long-term, there is to be only one party chairwoman, even if Weidel appears in Essen as a double act with Tino Chrupalla. A chairman, a general secretary: both are measures to organize the "motley crowd," as the former AfD chairman Alexander Gauland once called his party.

Election results and polls

At the European election on June 9, the AfD received 15.9%, an increase of 4.9 percentage points compared to the 2019 election. It finished in second place - a clear success. However, the AfD cannot be really satisfied with this result. In a few months ago, it was polling much better in the surveys. In December, it reached 23% in the RTL/ntv Trendbarometer. Currently, it is 16%.

The Potsdam Meeting

The decline in the polls was mainly due to the disillusionment caused by the meeting of right-wing radicals near Potsdam at the end of 2023. At the Potsdam Lehnitzsee, among others, AfD politicians listened to a speech by an Austrian right-wing extremist about a "Masterplan for Repatriation." After the meeting, demonstrations against the AfD and for democracy took place all over Germany. With this meeting, public disagreements between Le Pen and the AfD began. In February, Weidel even traveled to Paris to mend relations between the AfD and RN, but in vain.

In parallel with reporting on the Potsdam meeting and its consequences, several proceedings were ongoing against the AfD or AfD politicians. The central process took place before the North Rhine-Westphalia Administrative Court in Munster. The AfD aimed to prevent the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution from labeling the party as a suspected right-wing extremist "case."

The AfD lost. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution is now considering whether to take another step and classify the party as a whole as securely right-wing extremist. So far, this has happened for the youth organization and with the officially disbanded "Wings" around the Thuringia AfD chairman Bjoern Hoecke. In Thuringia, Saxony, and Saxony-Anhalt, the respective state offices for the Protection of the Constitution have named the respective state parties of the AfD as securely right-wing extremist.

The Hoecke Trials

Maximilian Krah's comments about the SS did not only shed light on the relationship between the AfD and National Socialism. The Hoecke trials before the Halle District Court reminded us that the Thuringia AfD chairman was already accused of having a "kinship with National Socialism" several years ago - as formulated by the AfD federal executive board in 2017.

In the first trial, Hoecke was already sentenced to a fine of 13,000 euros. The court considered it proven that Hoecke had deliberately inserted the NS slogan "All for Germany" into a speech. A second trial with a similar accusation was supposed to end on the previous Wednesday. The verdict is now planned for the coming Monday. And before the Muelhausen Magistrates' Court, a prosecution for incitement against Hoecke is still ongoing.

And finally, the BSW

Apart from self-inflicted problems, the AfD also faced competition in the elections in Saxony, Thuringia, and Brandenburg, which are scheduled for September. In all three states, the starting position for the AfD was very good: An RTL and ntv survey saw the party in Thuringia at 36%, in Saxony at 34%, and in Brandenburg at 32% in January.

In the latest surveys, the AfD is polling at 30% in Saxony, 29% in Thuringia, and 25% in Brandenburg. Worse, from the AfD's perspective: The BSW is a new player, to which the other parties have no boundary decisions. Unhappy was Weidel: At ntv, she called the BSW a "stool for the CDU."

The Big But

Given the many problems, it may be surprising that the AfD continues to perform well in the polls. This phenomenon is explainable: "First, it has a particularly loyal voter base compared to other parties," said right-wing populism expert Marcel Lewandowsky in an interview with ntv.de. "And secondly, many female and male AfD voters feel a real contempt for the political establishment and the system of the Federal Republic - and a certain admiration for Putin."

Additionally, Lewandowsky presented the notion that those "up there" wanted to prevent the success of the AfD, he stated. One could almost speak of tribalism: a kind of tribal thinking in the electorate of such parties - the notion: We stand together against all others, against those outside, against those up there, who want to suppress the silent majority. For the moment, it would suffice to continue as before. However, professionalization and demystification would then have to be postponed.

Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla are set to confirm their co-leadership of the AfD during their party conference in Essen (NRW), despite Chrupalla's concerns about his election results and efforts within the party to switch to a single leader.
Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, and Marine Le Pen, the French leader of the Rassemblement National (RN), are considered successful in moderating their tones and separating from their extreme roots, while the AfD is often viewed as the "awkward uncle" at political gatherings.
The AfD finds itself in a double situation ahead of its conference in Essen, performing well in polls while still far from the status of other radical right parties in Europe.
Maximilian Krah and Petr Bystron, the first and second places of the AfD in the European elections, are facing ongoing investigations for allegations of receiving money from Russia and China (Krah) or Russia (Bystron), which have largely excluded them from the AfD campaign.
Marine Le Pen ensured that the AfD left the "Identita et Democrazia" (ID) faction in the EU Parliament after Maximilian Krah's comments about the SS, a Nazi organization, were seen as a problem for Le Pen's efforts to present her party as more respectable.
Björn Höcke, who has dominated the AfD since their significant shift to the right in 2015, has been involved in several controversies, including a speech containing the NS slogan "All for Germany," for which he was fined 13,000 euros.
The allegations against the AfD and its politicians, public disagreements, and self-inflicted problems have led to discussions about labeling the party as a suspected right-wing extremist or securely right-wing extremist by various state and federal offices for the Protection of the Constitution.